Juan Francisco's Plate Discipline

[camisadelgolf]

There's a giant elephant in the room, and it's Juan Francisco's plate discipline. Okay, maybe it's not quite an 'elephant in the room' since we've talked at great length about it on RedsZone. Still, many of us believe he needs to make a major improvement in his plate discipline to maintain his success while many others feel a change in his plate approach isn't necessary.

For those of you who think he needs a change, how much of a change is needed? In a small sample, he walks 8.3% of the time and strikes out 32.1% of the time. So how much do those numbers need to change in order for him to have 'acceptable' plate discipline?

For those of you who think he doesn't need a major improvement, what is your basis? Who are some other players that have had success with a similar plate approach?

Here are some numbers to ponder. Using his career numbers, Juan Francisco would average 272 plate appearances, 23 walks, and 87 strikeouts over the course of 162 games. That's 3.87 strikeouts per walk, which is significantly better than his minor league rate of 5.94 strikeouts per walk. How many players have gotten away with that in MLB? I decided to look at the last 50 years and come up with a list of players who have put up a rate like that.

OPS+	POS	BB	SO	NAME			YEARS
113	3B	16	97	Chris Johnson		2009-10
112	OF	200	841	Bo Jackson		1986-94
103	1B	77	418	Ricky Jordan		1988-96
100	OF	100	418	Pedro Munoz		1990-6
 99	2B	78	328	Howie Kendrick		2006-10
 97	OF	88	363	Adam Jones		2006-10
 95	OF	226	992	Cory Snyder		1986-94
 91	 C	58	343	Bill Schroeder		1983-90
 90	SS	43	223	Orlando Miller		1994-7
 89	SS	203	1000	Shawon Dunston		1985-2002
 84	 C	125	800	Miguel olivo		2002-10
 84	OF	189	856	Corey Patterson		2000-10
 82	 C	67	332	Todd Greene		1996-2006
 82	OF	81	330	Karim Garcia		1995-2004
 78	 C	20	93	Orlando McFarlane	1962-8
 77	3B	120	620	Craig Paquette		1993-2003
 75	 C	72	327	Sal Fasano		1996-2008
 74	1B	16	103	Brad Eldred		2005-10
 74	3B	43	211	Jeff Hamilton		1986-91
 73	SS	150	588	Pat Meares		1993-2001
 72	OF	72	313	Carlos Gomez		2007-10
 71	OF	19	130	Jim Fuller		1973-7
 70	1B	19	91	Scott Thorman		2006-7
 69	 C	14	145	Eliezer Alfonzo		2006-10
 69	SS	37	234	Jeff Kunkel		1984-92
 68	3B	38	205	Chris Truby		2000-3
 68	 C	98	396	Bob Melvin		1985-94
 66	SS	85	364	Ronny Cedeno		2005-10
 66	SS	76	324	Alvaro Espinoza		1984-97
 64	OF	21	123	Reggie Abercrombie	2006-8
 63	1B	22	115	Mike Laga		1982-90
 63	2B	86	337	Dave McKay		1975-82
 62	 C	83	354	Jose Molina		1999-2010
 62	 C	80	336	Tom Egan		1965-75
 61	SS	59	301	Andres Thomas		1985-90
 60	 C	80	387	Joel Skinner		1983-91
 58	SS	59	317	Todd Cruz		1978-84
 57	 C	21	117	Ned Yost		1980-5
 57	OF	50	207	Dee Brown		1998-2007
 56	SS	25	254	Rob Picciolo		1977-85

As you can see, if history is any indication, things don't bode well for Francisco. In the poll above, please state which career in terms of pure offense that you see as most likely for Juan Francisco provided he's given the opportunity.

[Brutus]

There's a giant elephant in the room, and it's Juan Francisco's plate discipline. Okay, maybe it's not quite an 'elephant in the room' since we've talked at great length about it on RedsZone. Still, many of us believe he needs to make a major improvement in his plate discipline to maintain his success while many others feel a change in his plate approach isn't necessary.

For those of you who think he needs a change, how much of a change is needed? In a small sample, he walks 8.3% of the time and strikes out 32.1% of the time. So how much do those numbers need to change in order for him to have 'acceptable' plate discipline?

For those of you who think he doesn't need a major improvement, what is your basis? Who are some other players that have had success with a similar plate approach?

Here are some numbers to ponder. Using his career numbers, Juan Francisco would average 272 plate appearances, 23 walks, and 87 strikeouts over the course of 162 games. That's 3.87 strikeouts per walk, which is significantly better than his minor league rate of 5.94 strikeouts per walk. How many players have gotten away with that in MLB? I decided to look at the last 50 years and come up with a list of players who have put up a rate like that.

OPS+	POS	BB	SO	NAME			YEARS
113	3B	16	97	Chris Johnson		2009-10
112	OF	200	841	Bo Jackson		1986-94
103	1B	77	418	Ricky Jordan		1988-96
100	OF	100	418	Pedro Munoz		1990-6
 99	2B	78	328	Howie Kendrick		2006-10
 97	OF	88	363	Adam Jones		2006-10
 95	OF	226	992	Cory Snyder		1986-94
 91	 C	58	343	Bill Schroeder		1983-90
 90	SS	43	223	Orlando Miller		1994-7
 89	SS	203	1000	Shawon Dunston		1985-2002
 84	 C	125	800	Miguel olivo		2002-10
 84	OF	189	856	Corey Patterson		2000-10
 82	 C	67	332	Todd Greene		1996-2006
 82	OF	81	330	Karim Garcia		1995-2004
 78	 C	20	93	Orlando McFarlane	1962-8
 77	3B	120	620	Craig Paquette		1993-2003
 75	 C	72	327	Sal Fasano		1996-2008
 74	1B	16	103	Brad Eldred		2005-10
 74	3B	43	211	Jeff Hamilton		1986-91
 73	SS	150	588	Pat Meares		1993-2001
 72	OF	72	313	Carlos Gomez		2007-10
 71	OF	19	130	Jim Fuller		1973-7
 70	1B	19	91	Scott Thorman		2006-7
 69	 C	14	145	Eliezer Alfonzo		2006-10
 69	SS	37	234	Jeff Kunkel		1984-92
 68	3B	38	205	Chris Truby		2000-3
 68	 C	98	396	Bob Melvin		1985-94
 66	SS	85	364	Ronny Cedeno		2005-10
 66	SS	76	324	Alvaro Espinoza		1984-97
 64	OF	21	123	Reggie Abercrombie	2006-8
 63	1B	22	115	Mike Laga		1982-90
 63	2B	86	337	Dave McKay		1975-82
 62	 C	83	354	Jose Molina		1999-2010
 62	 C	80	336	Tom Egan		1965-75
 61	SS	59	301	Andres Thomas		1985-90
 60	 C	80	387	Joel Skinner		1983-91
 58	SS	59	317	Todd Cruz		1978-84
 57	 C	21	117	Ned Yost		1980-5
 57	OF	50	207	Dee Brown		1998-2007
 56	SS	25	254	Rob Picciolo		1977-85

As you can see, if history is any indication, things don't bode well for Francisco. In the poll above, please state which career in terms of pure offense that you see as most likely for Juan Francisco provided he's given the opportunity.

Great research. This has been my issue all along. His peripherals don't suggest a guy that will be able to make it at the Major League level. There's certainly a chance he can improve these numbers, but as is, he has a long, long way to go.

[Redhook]

I don't project Francisco to ever be a starter at any position for the Reds.

[dougdirt]

If we are simply talking about his major league numbers, he needs to strike out less than he is. His walk rate in the majors is fine, but of course given what it is in the minor leagues, I doubt he continues at the 8% clip if he doesn't improve. With that said, I think he can improve his approach as I have seen him make big strides over the last two seasons in terms of taking pitches that he used to swing out of his shoes trying to hit.

[Phhhl]

He's Willy Mo Pena. My friend made that analogy not long ago, and looking at the stats I cannot argue with it. Maybe there is a ray of hope in that he has options left. But, in his mind, I presume there is no pressing need for him to continue to "develop" while he is crushing minor league pitching. What can the Reds possibly do to get this kid to change?

I am not excited about Francisco. It stinks, because he has such incredible raw potential. If there is any way to toss him into a deal for a legit power hitting left fielder, the club needs to do it. Or, maybe a latter day "Arroyo for Pena" type bank heist...?

[dougdirt]

He's Willy Mo Pena. My friend made that analogy not long ago, and looking at the stats I cannot argue with it. Maybe there is a ray of hope in that he has options left. But, in his mind, I presume there is no pressing need for him to continue to "develop" while he is crushing minor league pitching. What can the Reds possibly do to get this kid to change?

I am not excited about Francisco. It stinks, because he has such incredible raw potential. If there is any way to toss him into a deal for a legit power hitting left fielder, the club needs to do it. Or, maybe a latter day "Arroyo for Pena" type bank heist...?

He isn't Wily Mo Pena. Numerically they seem similar, but they aren't. Wily Mo Pena couldn't distinguish a breaking ball from a fastball until it was across the plate and he was either looking at it or had already swung. Francisco doesn't have that same issue.

[Jpup]

He seems like a fine kid, but I don't really see him as a Major League hitter for long. I really hope I'm wrong.

[Kc61]

Another Francisco debate?

He doesn't walk a lot. He has good power. He has a good arm but is rough around third base defensively. Some think he will make it. Some don't.

Enough.

[Rojo]

He isn't Wily Mo Pena.

Maybe not, but looking for another Pena for Arroyo trade isn't a bad idea. If Francisco throw up 25 homers with the same bad peripherals, move him.

[Homer Bailey]

My stance on JF has always been that he's the kind of guy you just hang on to and see what happens. I don't think he has a ton of trade value, and there is a chance he becomes an absolute raker at the plate. Unlimited power, bad peripherals, we've all heard the story. I still think there is a chance he becomes Ryan Howard. I've often compared him to Pablo Sandoval.

His OPS continues to improve year by year. I say just ride it out. He may turn out to be nothing. That's fine. I still think he has incredible potential. Let's see what we have in him.