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Thread: Official GM Meetings Thread

  1. #31
    Member Cedric's Avatar
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    Re: Official GM Meetings Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    Johnny Cueto
    BB/9 3.1
    K/9 7.3
    WHIP 1.348
    ERA+ 98

    Travis Wood
    BB/9 2.3
    K/9 7.5
    WHIP 1.081
    ERA+ 114

    Career numbers for both. Johnny looked like he improved numbers wise last season. But I am still surprised that most people want to hold onto Cueto at all costs and wouldn't mind losing Wood. When in reality Wood was better across the board than Cueto. He doesn't have a smallish frame that Cueto has. And I love Wood's mound presence. He's got Moxie. You can't teach that.
    I certainly agree. Wood has comparable stuff and locates his pitches better. Cueto has no movement on his pitches and average secondary stuff. With his declining k/9 rate, arbitration status, and size I would be looking to move him right now.
    This is the time. The real Reds organization is back.

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  3. #32
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    Re: Official GM Meetings Thread

    Cueto has no movement on his pitches and average secondary stuff.
    Strongly disagree. Cueto's fastball moves quite a bit, and his slider and change are both plus pitches when he's on.

    Wood's secondary stuff is questionable at this point. He's mostly a fastball/cutter guy right now. His changeup was highly touted, but while it looks OK, it hasn't been as good as advertised (he leaves it up in the zone too much). The curve, at least in my opinion, has been better than advertised, but he rarely throws it.

    Both these guys are strong assets. The Reds could get back good value for either, but Cueto is more established and took a step forward last year in terms of consistency and durability.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  4. #33
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    Re: Official GM Meetings Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Cedric View Post
    I certainly agree. Wood has comparable stuff and locates his pitches better. Cueto has no movement on his pitches and average secondary stuff. With his declining k/9 rate, arbitration status, and size I would be looking to move him right now.
    Wood's "stuff" isn't the same class as Cueto's. He has more deception but stuff isn't comparable between the two.
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

  5. #34
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    Re: Official GM Meetings Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Jpup View Post
    Wood's "stuff" isn't the same class as Cueto's. He has more deception but stuff isn't comparable between the two.
    Wood has very good "stuff". And he can locate his primary and secondary pitches better than most.
    Cueto has been labeled a certain way because he throws 96. His peripheral metrics aren't great and they aren't trending towards good either. At this point the hype of his "stuff" is just that, hype.

    He is small and going to cost a ton of money soon. Sell him at his highest value and let someone else take the risk his peripherals aren't a bad sign, IMO.
    This is the time. The real Reds organization is back.

  6. #35
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    Re: Official GM Meetings Thread

    Cueto's stuff is above average, IMO. His slider and changeup are both above average pitches most of the time. His SwStr% was 9.1 this season which is above average. Justin Verlander (9.3), Ubaldo Jimenez (9.1), Johan Santana (9.2), and Ricky Romero (9.0) were all in that area with Cueto. He also ranked ahead of guys like Chris Carpenter, Yovani Gallardo, Tommy Hanson, Cliff Lee, and Zack Greinke.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  7. #36
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    Re: Official GM Meetings Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Cueto's stuff is above average, IMO. His slider and changeup are both above average pitches most of the time. His SwStr% was 9.1 this season which is above average. Justin Verlander (9.3), Ubaldo Jimenez (9.1), Johan Santana (9.2), and Ricky Romero (9.0) were all in that area with Cueto. He also ranked ahead of guys like Chris Carpenter, Yovani Gallardo, Tommy Hanson, Cliff Lee, and Zack Greinke.
    According to fangraphs his slider and change up have a swing/miss rate way below league average. His fastball is his money pitch and with his size and how he elevates pitches that's scary. Cueto also has a very high rate of stranding base runners and a plummeting home run per fly ball rate. If the home run rate comes back to earth he is in for a world of hurt.

    I'm certainly not going to cry if he's in the rotation next year. I'm just discussing why I think the Reds should flip him. I think some team will pay out the nose for someone with his perceived stuff and that playoff experience.
    Where are you getting those numbers on his secondary pitches? Fangraphs has him at below average swstr with his slider and changeup.
    This is the time. The real Reds organization is back.

  8. #37
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    Re: Official GM Meetings Thread

    If I'm flipping anyone I'm flipping the short RH who is at peak value.

    The numbers don't lie, the list of successful height challenged RH's who started is like the menu at Five Guys Burgers...short.

  9. #38
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    Re: Official GM Meetings Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Cedric View Post
    According to fangraphs his slider and change up have a swing/miss rate way below league average. His fastball is his money pitch and with his size and how he elevates pitches that's scary. Cueto also has a very high rate of stranding base runners and a plummeting home run per fly ball rate. If the home run rate comes back to earth he is in for a world of hurt.

    I'm certainly not going to cry if he's in the rotation next year. I'm just discussing why I think the Reds should flip him. I think some team will pay out the nose for someone with his perceived stuff and that playoff experience.
    Where are you getting those numbers on his secondary pitches? Fangraphs has him at below average swstr with his slider and changeup.
    You are blowing his declining peripherals out of proportion. His K/9 dropped ever so slightly in 2010 but his walk rate improved from 3.20 to 2.71 and his HR/9 decreased from 1.26 to 0.92. If anything, his peripherals improved this season. SwStr% is listed on Fangraphs. Cueto had an above average SwStr% this season.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  10. #39
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Official GM Meetings Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Cueto's stuff is above average, IMO. His slider and changeup are both above average pitches most of the time. His SwStr% was 9.1 this season which is above average. Justin Verlander (9.3), Ubaldo Jimenez (9.1), Johan Santana (9.2), and Ricky Romero (9.0) were all in that area with Cueto. He also ranked ahead of guys like Chris Carpenter, Yovani Gallardo, Tommy Hanson, Cliff Lee, and Zack Greinke.
    Analysis like this is the reasons teams decide to invest in the Fausto Camona's of the world and let the Cliff Lee's of the world walk.

    This is not a knock on Cueto because he is a good pitcher but if I were picking a pitcher to invest in long term, build a team around, Cueto wouldn't be the guy in Cincy. IMO he is a power pitcher with a smallish frame. Nothing says he can't continue to do this long term, but the odds aren't in his favor. Lets also consider that Johnny from time to time lets the game and situation get out of hand. I look back at the brawl as well as why the Reds felt the need to start someone else in game 1.

    Leake and Wood have never let the moment get bigger than them. They have stayed even keel on the mound no matter what the situation was. They may not have the "stuff" that Johnny possesses, but I like them as pitchers long term better than Cueto.

  11. #40
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    Re: Official GM Meetings Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    If I'm flipping anyone I'm flipping the short RH who is at peak value.

    The numbers don't lie, the list of successful height challenged RH's who started is like the menu at Five Guys Burgers...short.
    Ditto. For me it is combination of history as WOY has said and desire to keep the lefty. Over the years it seems that some clubs have much difficulty with even average lefties. Wood will be at least that IMO.
    Let's play two!!!

  12. #41
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    Re: Official GM Meetings Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    Analysis like this is the reasons teams decide to invest in the Fausto Camona's of the world and let the Cliff Lee's of the world walk.
    How so? Cliff Lee's peripherals and SwStr% blow Carmona's out of the water. Not sure where that came from but I don't think there's anyone out there who would take Carmona over Lee.

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    This is not a knock on Cueto because he is a good pitcher but if I were picking a pitcher to invest in long term, build a team around, Cueto wouldn't be the guy in Cincy. IMO he is a power pitcher with a smallish frame. Nothing says he can't continue to do this long term, but the odds aren't in his favor. Lets also consider that Johnny from time to time lets the game and situation get out of hand. I look back at the brawl as well as why the Reds felt the need to start someone else in game 1.
    Cueto didn't let the pressure or situation get to him in the playoffs. He pitched a very good game in his lone playoff start. He handled his emotions on the mound a lot better this season, IMO. I wouldn't trade Cueto unless I was absolutely blown away with an offer. I wouldn't trade Travis Wood either. I think both he and Cueto are underrated around here.
    Last edited by OnBaseMachine; 11-18-2010 at 12:24 PM.
    I miss Adam Dunn.


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