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Thread: The Limits of Observation

  1. #1
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    The Limits of Observation

    I often find myself rambling on this topic, the limits of human observation, when trying to defend the sabermetric viewpoint. However, this wonderful article covers it all. It's intended for hockey fans, but is applicable for any sport fan and is written in plain English.

    http://blogs.thescore.com/nhl/2010/1...f-observation/

    It's a long read, but worth it. Here are the some of the topics it touches on:

    Cognition is Conservative
    -confirmation bias
    -cognitive dissonance
    -availability heuristic
    -halo effect
    -illusory correlation
    -post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy

    Attention and Memory
    -human memory is re-constructive in nature

    The Constraints of Time and the Perception of Means
    -small sample size

    Enjoy!
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  3. #2
    Tired of talk. Win! Joseph's Avatar
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    Re: The Limits of Observation

    Thank Rick. Lengthy read for an online article these days, but very salient points all around.

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  4. #3
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: The Limits of Observation

    Don't most/all of these issues also create problems with data collecters for statistics?
    Can't win with 'em

    Can't win without 'em

  5. #4
    Member kpresidente's Avatar
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    Re: The Limits of Observation

    ^ Garbage in, garbage out.

  6. #5
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    Re: The Limits of Observation

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I often find myself rambling on this topic, the limits of human observation, when trying to defend the sabermetric viewpoint. However, this wonderful article covers it all. It's intended for hockey fans, but is applicable for any sport fan and is written in plain English.

    http://blogs.thescore.com/nhl/2010/1...f-observation/

    It's a long read, but worth it. Here are the some of the topics it touches on:

    Cognition is Conservative
    -confirmation bias
    -cognitive dissonance
    -availability heuristic
    -halo effect
    -illusory correlation
    -post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy

    Attention and Memory
    -human memory is re-constructive in nature

    The Constraints of Time and the Perception of Means
    -small sample size

    Enjoy!
    Uh, you're talking about doing away with the DH there, aren't ya?




  7. #6
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: The Limits of Observation

    Written for Hockey, a sport that off the puck has WAY more effect on the game then most sports, thus the focus on stats only will often be somewhat gray.


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