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Thread: How about Ellsbury

  1. #31
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: How about Ellsbury

    Quote Originally Posted by REDblooded View Post
    The shine is totally off of Lars Anderson right now... I'd definitely argue that Yonder has more value as a prospect than Lars...
    That's sort of the point. There's more than a touch of homerism in our thinking that Alonso is very highly valued. If he didn't have the 1st round pedigree, how much of a prospect would he be based on what he's done? He'd still be pretty well regarded, but would he considered a top prospect?

    He's limited to 1B and not a defensive asset there. He doesn't have elite power. His upside is basically Billy Butler, right? Ellsbury has been an above average major league regular. Alonso has a shot at being an above average major league regular.

    That sort of a trade lacks upside for the Red Sox. I could see that sort of a deal happening mid-season for a team trying to capitalize on an arb eligible guy before he gets expensive. But if you're the Sox, aren't you still gunning for a real impact guy at 1B, namely Adrian Gonzalez or Prince Fielder? And isn't Ellsbury one of the, if not the, key chits there? I just don't see this making sense from the Sox perspective in light of the alternatives.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  3. #32
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: How about Ellsbury

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    That's sort of the point. There's more than a touch of homerism in our thinking that Alonso is very highly valued. If he didn't have the 1st round pedigree, how much of a prospect would he be based on what he's done? He'd still be pretty well regarded, but would he considered a top prospect?

    He's limited to 1B and not a defensive asset there. He doesn't have elite power. His upside is basically Billy Butler, right? Ellsbury has been an above average major league regular. Alonso has a shot at being an above average major league regular.

    That sort of a trade lacks upside for the Red Sox. I could see that sort of a deal happening mid-season for a team trying to capitalize on an arb eligible guy before he gets expensive. But if you're the Sox, aren't you still gunning for a real impact guy at 1B, namely Adrian Gonzalez or Prince Fielder? And isn't Ellsbury one of the, if not the, key chits there? I just don't see this making sense from the Sox perspective in light of the alternatives.
    I agree with you, but as a side note, I've seen Alonso play a number of times, and his defense has come a long way. He was certainly one of the better defenders in AAA the last few times I saw him.

  4. #33
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: How about Ellsbury

    Quote Originally Posted by Spitball View Post
    That is not true, Ellsbury has not lost his starting job. If the season starts tomorrow and Ellsbury is healthy, he is in left or centerfield. Josh Reddick, Ryan Kalish, and Daniel Nava might have futures with the Sox, but not one has performed well enough to dislodge Ellsbury.

    In fact, Ellsbury is probably the only sure thing in their unsettled outfield for 2011. Cameron and Drew are old and injury prone. McDonald and Patterson are minor league fill-ins. Ellsbury is the only one who you can count on to be in their outfield if not traded for a proven offensive force such as Adrian Gonzalez.
    Alonso and Bray will not bring Ellsbury to Cincinnati. The Red Sox are in the most competitive division in baseball and have the financial ability not to trade starters for players with mere potential. Now, they may listen on Joey Votto...but not a prospect like Alonso..and especially not for a suspect like Bray.
    Ellsbury will be traded. Maybe they only want to use him as a piece in a trade for a big expensive bat like Fielder or Gonzalez, but the Red Sox are not counting on him to be starting for them next season. They have soured on him.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  5. #34
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: How about Ellsbury

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    That's sort of the point. There's more than a touch of homerism in our thinking that Alonso is very highly valued. If he didn't have the 1st round pedigree, how much of a prospect would he be based on what he's done? He'd still be pretty well regarded, but would he considered a top prospect?
    He's limited to 1B and not a defensive asset there. He doesn't have elite power. His upside is basically Billy Butler, right? Ellsbury has been an above average major league regular. Alonso has a shot at being an above average major league regular.
    That sort of a trade lacks upside for the Red Sox. I could see that sort of a deal happening mid-season for a team trying to capitalize on an arb eligible guy before he gets expensive. But if you're the Sox, aren't you still gunning for a real impact guy at 1B, namely Adrian Gonzalez or Prince Fielder? And isn't Ellsbury one of the, if not the, key chits there? I just don't see this making sense from the Sox perspective in light of the alternatives.
    You might be right that the Red Sox would only want to use Ellsbury as a piece for a big expensive bat, but he wouldnt be the center point of the deal. His value has dropped significantly in the last year. He was injured and no one knows if he is fully recovered, plus, he seems to be closer to a league average CF than an above average one. He's projects, even if he comes back strong from his injury, to be a .750 OPS, league average defensive CF. That has a lot of value, but that places him in the middle of the pack of CF'ers.

    Alonso does project to have power, remember he is coming off a hand injury and right about the time he was expected to show power again he did. There is one big difference between him and Lars. Alonso reached AAA, and dominated the second half of the season when he was fully healthy. Lars reached AAA and flopped.

    I agree that Alonso only projects as a league average 1B, but he seems to be pretty much there already, he just needs to play regularly. I only see Ellsbury as more valuable because he plays a more valuable position. But they both are league average players, and Alonso is cheaper and under team control for three years longer.

    Alonso might not be what the Red Sox are looking for, but value wise, they matchup pretty well.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  6. #35
    Member Spitball's Avatar
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    Re: How about Ellsbury

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    Ellsbury will be traded.
    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    ...but the Red Sox are not counting on him to be starting for them next season. They have soured on him.
    Where are you getting this insider information??? We have all seen the rumors that the Red Sox have soured on Ellsbury, but where are the reports that take these rumors to the absolute status you are reporting?

    The Red Sox have a lot of question marks this off season. Among those unanswered questions are, who will play first base, third base, left field, center field, shortstop, and who will catch? Ellsbury very well could be included in a trade for one of those major components needed for the upcoming season...but he won't be traded for the sake of banishing him. He is still their best leadoff option and the best defensive option in left field on a team that values defense. For the Sox, winning will be more important than punishing Ellsbury for only playng 18 games last year.

    Ryan Kalish is a very promising young outfielder and so is Josh Reddick, but they have not proven enough to have taken Ellsbury's job. If anything, the Sox learned in 2010 the importance of quality depth in the outfield.

    If the Sox do add Crawford or Werth or can trade for Upton (or the like), Ellsbury becomes more available. For right now, he is in their outfield plans.
    Last edited by Spitball; 11-29-2010 at 08:31 PM.

  7. #36
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: How about Ellsbury

    Quote Originally Posted by Spitball View Post
    Where are you getting this insider information??? We have all seen the rumors that the Red Sox have soured on Ellsbury, but where are the reports that take these rumors to the absolute status you are reporting?

    The Red Sox have a lot of question marks this off season. Among those unanswered questions are, who will play first base, third base, left field, center field, shortstop, and who will catch? Ellsbury very well could be included in a trade for one of those major components needed for the upcoming season...but he won't be traded for the sake of banishing him. He is still their best leadoff option and the best defensive option in left field on a team that values defense. For the Sox, winning will be more important than punishing Ellsbury for only playng 18 games last year.

    Ryan Kalish is a very promising young outfielder and so is Josh Reddick, but they have not proven enough to have taken Ellsbury's job. If anything, the Sox learned in 2010 the importance of quality depth in the outfield.

    If the Sox do add Crawford or Werth or can trade for Upton (or the like), Ellsbury becomes more available. For right now, he is in their outfield plans.
    My apologies. I should have put "imo" in that sentence.

    But I woud bet better than even money that he traded. The fact that the Red Sox have been linked to every Crawford and Werth rumors is the main reason why.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  8. #37
    Member Spitball's Avatar
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    Re: How about Ellsbury

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    My apologies. I should have put "imo" in that sentence.

    But I woud bet better than even money that he traded. The fact that the Red Sox have been linked to every Crawford and Werth rumors is the main reason why.
    He very well may be traded. As has been noted, the Red Sox have holes to fill and Ellsbury is a valuable trading chip.

    But getting rid of him opens up other problems. Do they really want to compete against the Yankees with Scutaro leading off? Even if they sign either Crawford or Werth, do the defense minded Sox trust an aging Mike Cameron or unproven Ryan Kalish in center?

    You may be right, and he will be gone from Boston. Until some pieces fall into place, I just don't see it as a given.

  9. #38
    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
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    Re: How about Ellsbury

    Are the Red Sox still giving away good players for bottom-feeders like Wily Mo? If so, we might be in business. ;-)

    Seriously, I would love to land Ellsbury as the LF and leadoff hitter. But I just don't see it happening. It's fun to dream though. Ellsbury-Stubbs-Bruce would be one heck of a starting OF (both offensively and defensively) and Gomes would make a pretty solid #4 OF. The Reds also have Heisey if Gomes falters, or just for added depth. But no question they need a LF/leadoff hitter and even Jocketty has been outspoken about it. It will be interesting to see who the Reds get, but getting someone like Ellsbury would be great. He is a bit of a free-swinger though for a leadoff guy, FYI.

  10. #39
    Mr.Redlegs is my homeboy Eric_the_Red's Avatar
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    Re: How about Ellsbury

    The BoSox need a catcher. Is Mesoraco for Ellsbury too much?

  11. #40
    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
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    Re: How about Ellsbury

    I guess I give more credit to the Red Sox FO than some folks do.

    They are not about to just give Ellsbury away.

  12. #41
    Member membengal's Avatar
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    Re: How about Ellsbury

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric_the_Red View Post
    The BoSox need a catcher. Is Mesoraco for Ellsbury too much?
    great googily moogily. yes, in my opinion, way too much.

  13. #42
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: How about Ellsbury

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric_the_Red View Post
    The BoSox need a catcher. Is Mesoraco for Ellsbury too much?
    Too much IMO.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  14. #43
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: How about Ellsbury

    Quote Originally Posted by membengal View Post
    great googily moogily. yes, in my opinion, way too much.
    Really? I was thinking it wouldn't be enough.

  15. #44
    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
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    Re: How about Ellsbury

    I seriously doubt Devin Mesoraco would be "too much" to give up for Ellsbury. The latter is a proven MLBer and is still young. The former has had one good (although it was really good) minor league season. If anything, I think that would be a fair trade or in the Reds' favor. I certainly don't think the Reds would turn that down if the Sox offered it. (Especially considering the fact the Reds used their 2010 first-round pick on a catcher.)

  16. #45
    Member membengal's Avatar
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    Re: How about Ellsbury

    Mes about to show up on top 50 lists of best prospects, and prob third or so best catching prospect in baseball. In addition, scouts say he will stick at catcher, unlike 1 or 2 ahead of him on that list. Last time reds had a catching prospect that high homegrown? Got me. Been a long time. And catching remains a premium position that if it can be filled in-house, well, for a club w/ limited resources like the reds, it puts a huge value on mesoraco. And makes him worth, in my view, way more than ellsbury. And I like ellsbury. A lot.


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