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Thread: How about Ellsbury

  1. #16
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: How about Ellsbury

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    No chance of their being able to peddle Alonso for Ellsbury. Sox have Lars Anderson and Anthony Rizzo as 1B prospects -- and Alonso has not separated himself with any certainty from guys like that as of yet. Red Sox have bigger fish to fry.

    It makes sense for the Reds to continue to develop Alonso at AAA. Hopefully he puts up big numbers in 2011 and makes himself a real option for teams looking for a young 1b/DH who can step right into a major league lineup. He's not quite there yet.
    Alonso is a top 50 MLB prospect while Anderson is more of a top 100, and Rizzo is years away from the majors. Alonso has separated himself from most 1B prospects by having a much better OPB than most, which usually means he's a more finished hitter, and more MLB ready. Every team may have a 1B prospect, but Alonso is easily in the top 5 in the majors among 1B prospects. Plus the Sawks love high OBP guys.

    And remember Elsbury is damaged goods both physically and in his relationship with the Sawks. He will not be a Red Sox next year, and everyone knows it. His trade value is much lower than it has ever been.
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  3. #17
    Battle Toad Historian thatcoolguy_22's Avatar
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    Re: How about Ellsbury

    I would be all over an Alonso for Ellsbury deal. Ellsbury and his .350+ OBP and solid glove would be a boon for the Reds lineup/defense.
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  4. #18
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    Re: How about Ellsbury

    Quote Originally Posted by thatcoolguy_22 View Post
    I would be all over an Alonso for Ellsbury deal. Ellsbury and his .350+ OBP and solid glove would be a boon for the Reds lineup/defense.
    Ditto. I like power over speed in the corners, but if Alonso could fetch Ellsbury straight up than it's a no-brainer IMO. The key to watch is whether Beltre re-signs with the Sox. If he doesn't, they could move Youk to 3B which would open up a spot for Yonder.
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  5. #19
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: How about Ellsbury

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Ditto. I like power over speed in the corners, but if Alonso could fetch Ellsbury straight up than it's a no-brainer IMO. The key to watch is whether Beltre re-signs with the Sox. If he doesn't, they could move Youk to 3B which would open up a spot for Yonder.
    Even then, is Alonso enough of an upgrade over Lars Anderson to make it worth it for them?
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  6. #20
    Member Spitball's Avatar
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    Re: How about Ellsbury

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Even then, is Alonso enough of an upgrade over Lars Anderson to make it worth it for them?
    No...not even close. We are talking about the Red Sox trying to keep pace with the Yankees and move ahead of the Jays. If Ellsbury can't bring more than Alonso's mere promise, they will hold onto him. If he is traded, it will not be for a prospect...especially not a first base prospect.

    Though the Sox really seem to like Anderson, he was rated much higher last year before he slipped last season. That is a lesson that won't be lost on any one year evaluation of Alonso.

  7. #21
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: How about Ellsbury

    Well let's see here it's the AL so the Sox could play both Anderson and Alonso and they need some pop. Also Alonso is a natural fit to knock balls off of the Monster for years to come. I think Boston would want a bit more (maybe an arm like Burton who is undervalued by the Reds and it's fans) because they can based on perception but I think they can see Alonso for what he can be after they coach him up a bit. I'd say it's a very interesting match and one that could get done.
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  8. #22
    Member Spitball's Avatar
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    Re: How about Ellsbury

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    Well let's see here it's the AL so the Sox could play both Anderson and Alonso and they need some pop. Also Alonso is a natural fit to knock balls off of the Monster for years to come. I think Boston would want a bit more (maybe an arm like Burton who is undervalued by the Reds and it's fans) because they can based on perception but I think they can see Alonso for what he can be after they coach him up a bit. I'd say it's a very interesting match and one that could get done.
    I can't think of a recent time in the Sox history that they have traded a viable starter from their line-up for a prospect and an injury prone reliever. They are not likely to settle for a Alonso/Anderson platoon when they have their eyes set on on Adrian Gonzalez or Prince Fielder.

    If Alonso has a full year of really monster production at triple A, I can see him as a real enticing trade chip. Right now, he is not going to bring an Ellsbury or other starting player from the Yankees or the Red Sox.

  9. #23
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: How about Ellsbury

    Elsbury is no longer a starter for the Red Sox. They are going to trade him. They like Reddick and that other young CF better.

    I agree with the evaluation of Alonso, but I think people are overvaluing Elsbury. The Red Sox Alonso alone will not get him, but it won't take much more. Someone like Bray.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  10. #24
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    Re: How about Ellsbury

    The shine is totally off of Lars Anderson right now... I'd definitely argue that Yonder has more value as a prospect than Lars...
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  11. #25
    Member Topcat's Avatar
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    Re: How about Ellsbury

    If such a deal came down I would offer Wood before I offer Leake.
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  12. #26
    Member Spitball's Avatar
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    Re: How about Ellsbury

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    Elsbury is no longer a starter for the Red Sox. They are going to trade him. They like Reddick and that other young CF better.
    That is not true, Ellsbury has not lost his starting job. If the season starts tomorrow and Ellsbury is healthy, he is in left or centerfield. Josh Reddick, Ryan Kalish, and Daniel Nava might have futures with the Sox, but not one has performed well enough to dislodge Ellsbury.

    In fact, Ellsbury is probably the only sure thing in their unsettled outfield for 2011. Cameron and Drew are old and injury prone. McDonald and Patterson are minor league fill-ins. Ellsbury is the only one who you can count on to be in their outfield if not traded for a proven offensive force such as Adrian Gonzalez.


    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    I agree with the evaluation of Alonso, but I think people are overvaluing Elsbury. The Red Sox Alonso alone will not get him, but it won't take much more. Someone like Bray.
    Alonso and Bray will not bring Ellsbury to Cincinnati. The Red Sox are in the most competitive division in baseball and have the financial ability not to trade starters for players with mere potential. Now, they may listen on Joey Votto...but not a prospect like Alonso..and especially not for a suspect like Bray.
    Last edited by Spitball; 11-28-2010 at 10:33 PM.

  13. #27
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    Re: How about Ellsbury

    Quote Originally Posted by REDblooded View Post
    The shine is totally off of Lars Anderson right now... I'd definitely argue that Yonder has more value as a prospect than Lars...
    But what does that tell the Red Sox? Anderson was also a top 50 prospect a year ago and now has slipped to the top 100.

    They do not have to even play that game with position players. They can bring in proven players. Youkilis, Pedroia and Ellsbury are home grown. For the past several years, most positions have been filled by high priced imports.

  14. #28
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: How about Ellsbury

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Assuming 2010 is a lost season, Ellsbury's 2009 had him with a .355 OBP and a .415 Slugging %. As lead-off guys go that isn't bad and a move to the NL should give those numbers a slight boost. The steals themselves mean very little IMO. I'd just as soon the guys at the top of the Reds order stay put and leave the big hole between 1B and 2B while guys are holding him on and not risk getting thrown out in front of Votto and Bruce (who are likely to drive guys in with extra base hits). Save all that risky running non-sense for the bottom of the order where they actually need to steal to help them get around the bases.

    From that standpoint, I kind of agree about Ellsbury not being may favorite target, but what do you seriously think Alonso would bring back in a deal? He's a promising bat where most prospects are promising bats, nearly every team has one and even the ones that carry it to the big leagues are just ordinary unless they reach the upper echelon. Sean Casey was a really promising bat once upon a time and spent most of his career in the bottom half of regular 1B production. I don't see teams giving up a whole lot for Alonso and he's of no use to the Reds playing 1B in AAA. This is the year for the Reds to go for it. First good deal that comes along that improves the major league product, and Alonso should be on his way out of town IMO.
    In 2009, Ellsbury was the 19th highest OPS lead off hitter (min 350 PA). And despite 52 stolen bases, and a .347 OBP (good for only 18th) he only scored 75 runs for the Sox. With his injury issues, falling out with management, and apparent middling status as a leadoff guy, I think he's overvalued and has a strong chance for buyer's remorse.

    Alonso may not be a match for the Sox, why force it? We can just keep him in AAA for insurance and it would be more valuable than trading for Ellsbury, IMO. He'll perform there and retain some value. Or trade him in a package for a better player.

  15. #29
    Member kpresidente's Avatar
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    Re: How about Ellsbury

    Quote Originally Posted by Spitball View Post
    Now, they may listen on Joey Votto...
    Yeah, they may just give a listen on Votto. Maybe pick up the phone.

    Maybe.

    :thumbdown

  16. #30
    Member blumj's Avatar
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    Re: How about Ellsbury

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    Yeah, they may just give a listen on Votto. Maybe pick up the phone.

    Maybe.

    :thumbdown
    I'm no language expert, but I would assume that was meant to be hyperbole? You're suppose to get a little chuckle over the massive understatement?
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