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Thread: Greinke

  1. #1
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    Greinke

    Hey Guys,

    I have been doing some thinking. The Royals have put Greinke out there on the market and I think that if the Reds start a package of Edinson Volquez, and Chris Heisey along with a few other prospects. The parting with Volquez would be strong enough to get this deal done. The payroll could be absorbed and the Reds get a guaranteed 200+ Innings and a guy to slide right behind Arroyo in the rotation.

    Volquez might go on to win 15-20 games a year but he is an Injury risk. Grienke is Kevin Brown stuff in a Prime Years Body who would fit in perfect with this young team.

    Arroyo
    Greinke
    Leake
    Wood
    Bailey

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    Re: Greinke

    Greinke's stats sucked last year. Maybe he's on the decline?

    Not sure I trade much for him. And KC wants a boatload for him.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

    "Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread

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    Re: Greinke

    Quote Originally Posted by Vottomatic View Post
    Greinke's stats sucked last year. Maybe he's on the decline?

    Not sure I trade much for him. And KC wants a boatload for him.
    The only bad stat was ERA. He still put up 220 innings pitched, 7.4 K/9, 2.25 BB/9. His fielding independent numbers were terrific, his ERA last season should have been more around 3.34 with average fielding. Put him with the Reds' defense against NL lineups without the DH and I bet his ERA instantly drops back down around that range, maybe lower.

    KC should want a boatload for him, but any team that gets him is getting a boatload in return. He would instantly be the Reds' best pitcher as soon as the deal was signed.

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    Re: Greinke

    Quote Originally Posted by lonewolf371 View Post
    The only bad stat was ERA. He still put up 220 innings pitched, 7.4 K/9, 2.25 BB/9. His fielding independent numbers were terrific, his ERA last season should have been more around 3.34 with average fielding. Put him with the Reds' defense against NL lineups without the DH and I bet his ERA instantly drops back down around that range, maybe lower.

    KC should want a boatload for him, but any team that gets him is getting a boatload in return. He would instantly be the Reds' best pitcher as soon as the deal was signed.
    ERA
    2009 2.19
    2010 4.17
    Yeah, I guess bad defense accounted for 2 more runs allowed per 9 innings. I'm sure the official scorer missed a ton of errors.

    Innings Pitched
    2009 229
    2010 220

    Hits allowed
    2009 195
    2010 219

    Earned Runs
    2009 55
    2010 102
    Yep, defense was the main contributing factor in his earned runs nearly doubling in about the same amount of innings pitched.

    K's
    2009 242
    2010 181

    Batting Average Against
    2009 .230
    2010 .260
    Yep, I guess the defense allowed the hitters to hit 30 points higher against him last year too.

    Maybe KC knows something others don't? Maybe they're selling high before his value plummets? Hmmmm.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

    "Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread

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    Re: Greinke

    I would stay away from Grienke. KC is trying to sell him before the wheels fall off. I say we roll with the guys we have and hope for marginal improvement from the young guys. That adds up to a pretty good lineup.

    Walt needs to make a big splash in LF and leave the rest of the team alone.

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    Re: Greinke

    Alonso, Bailey, Mes, Yorman for Grienke
    Volquez, Francisco, Frazier for Reyes

    Not Going To Happen But One Could Dream

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    Re: Greinke

    Quote Originally Posted by RedLakerFan24 View Post
    Alonso, Bailey, Mes, Yorman for Grienke
    Volquez, Francisco, Frazier for Reyes

    Not Going To Happen But One Could Dream
    Absolutely not worth it for me, IMO.

    -Matt

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    Re: Greinke

    Greinke has a huge contract, and will be a free agent in two years.

    That should be taken into account in all trade offers.

    He's a good catch, but not worth overpaying, imo.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Re: Greinke

    Quote Originally Posted by Vottomatic View Post
    ERA
    2009 2.19
    2010 4.17
    Yeah, I guess bad defense accounted for 2 more runs allowed per 9 innings. I'm sure the official scorer missed a ton of errors.

    Innings Pitched
    2009 229
    2010 220

    Hits allowed
    2009 195
    2010 219

    Earned Runs
    2009 55
    2010 102
    Yep, defense was the main contributing factor in his earned runs nearly doubling in about the same amount of innings pitched.

    K's
    2009 242
    2010 181

    Batting Average Against
    2009 .230
    2010 .260

    Yep, I guess the defense allowed the hitters to hit 30 points higher against him last year too.

    Maybe KC knows something others don't? Maybe they're selling high before his value plummets? Hmmmm.
    That .30 bump in BA against amounts to around 25 hits. That's less than one a game. That easily can be ascribed to defense and luck.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  11. #10
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    Re: Greinke

    Quote Originally Posted by Vottomatic View Post
    ERA
    2009 2.19
    2010 4.17
    Yeah, I guess bad defense accounted for 2 more runs allowed per 9 innings. I'm sure the official scorer missed a ton of errors.

    Innings Pitched
    2009 229
    2010 220

    Hits allowed
    2009 195
    2010 219

    Earned Runs
    2009 55
    2010 102
    Yep, defense was the main contributing factor in his earned runs nearly doubling in about the same amount of innings pitched.

    K's
    2009 242
    2010 181

    Batting Average Against
    2009 .230
    2010 .260
    Yep, I guess the defense allowed the hitters to hit 30 points higher against him last year too.

    Maybe KC knows something others don't? Maybe they're selling high before his value plummets? Hmmmm.
    VottoDude,

    Love the stat comparison but heres the real deal.

    The Royals were so terrible last year as of June 8th, Greinke was 1-8

    That is a RECORD of 1 Win to 8 Losses.

    He came back to Win 9 More games and lose 6 to finish admirely at 10-14

    This guy has serious stuff.

    The Royals did nothing to help this guy and it could have been worse if he wasnt such a dang good pitcher. Greinke with any help could have been 15 wins and 8 losses if he had "ANY" help from the offense...

    He is a competitor.

  12. #11
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    Re: Greinke

    Quote Originally Posted by Vottomatic View Post
    ERA
    2009 2.19
    2010 4.17
    Yeah, I guess bad defense accounted for 2 more runs allowed per 9 innings. I'm sure the official scorer missed a ton of errors.

    Innings Pitched
    2009 229
    2010 220

    Hits allowed
    2009 195
    2010 219

    Earned Runs
    2009 55
    2010 102
    Yep, defense was the main contributing factor in his earned runs nearly doubling in about the same amount of innings pitched.

    K's
    2009 242
    2010 181

    Batting Average Against
    2009 .230
    2010 .260
    Yep, I guess the defense allowed the hitters to hit 30 points higher against him last year too.

    Maybe KC knows something others don't? Maybe they're selling high before his value plummets? Hmmmm.
    Great numbers, but you're ignoring that his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) jumped from 2.33 to 3.34, which is an indication of what his ERA would have been with average fielding and takes into account the defense of his team. It's still a big jump but to be honest 2.33 is unsustainable for any pitcher in baseball. 3.34 is better than CC Sabathia last year and only 0.3 higher than Felix Hernandez. He still struck out more than Sabathia and walked less than Hernandez, so yes, I'm willing to attribute Greinke's ERA to his team's terrible defense. I also don't see a good reason why a 27 year-old pitcher would regress this much.

  13. #12
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    Re: Greinke

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

    If the Rangers lose Lee to the Yankees, they will likely consider trading for Zack Greinke. The Royals like Rangers prospects Martin Perez and Tanner Scheppers.

    Now come on! The Reds can make a comparable offer and get a 27 year old Cy Young Winner.

    Walt, when you were in St. Louis, you made these trades! Lets go sir!

  14. #13
    All work and no play..... Vottomatic's Avatar
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    Re: Greinke

    It won't happen. Reds have enough cheap starting pitching. And Reds can't compete with large market teams going after Greinke.

    But keep dreaming.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

    "Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread

  15. #14
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    Re: Greinke

    Quote Originally Posted by Vottomatic View Post
    And Reds can't compete with large market teams going after Greinke.
    I disagree here. Right now the Reds are LOADED with prospects, and payroll really isn't a factor in a trade like this. There's no reason a large market team has an advantage here. If he were a free agent, it would be a different story.
    Sto Pro Veritate

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    Re: Greinke

    Quote Originally Posted by Girevik View Post
    I disagree here. Right now the Reds are LOADED with prospects, and payroll really isn't a factor in a trade like this. There's no reason a large market team has an advantage here. If he were a free agent, it would be a different story.
    I meant, we can't afford to add that much payroll.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

    "Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread


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