Turn Off Ads?
Page 1 of 3 123 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 36

Thread: 2011 zips projection

Hybrid View

  1. #1
    Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Posts
    1,677

    2011 zips projection

    I didn't see any comment. Perhaps with the holidays, I missed it.

    http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/...ncinnati_reds/

    Folks who want to concede first bast to Yonder and move Votto have to ask themeslves...Why? The projection (which is usually young/rookie happy) believes that Gomes will out hit the big Cuban.

    Anybody really think Danny Dorn could do that?

    No way does Edmonds reach that projection in terms of playing time or in terms of rates.
    "Even a bad day at the ballpark beats the snot out of most other good days. I'll take my scorecard and pencil and beer and hot dog and rage at the dips and cheer at the highs, but I'm not ever going to stop loving this game and this team and nobody will ever take that away from me." Roy Tucker October 2010

  2. #2
    Start the Reactor! *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    Indianapolis
    Posts
    6,458

    Re: 2011 zips projection

    Quote Originally Posted by dfs View Post
    Folks who want to concede first bast to Yonder and move Votto have to ask themeslves...Why? The projection (which is usually young/rookie happy) believes that Gomes will out hit the big Cuban.

    Anybody really think Danny Dorn could do that?
    These projections are based purely on quantitative results, so a guy like Alonso who has been hampered by injuries and is getting attention because of his tools is not going to come out ahead of a guy like Dorn who most feel is a AAAA player.

    Gotta love the Mesoraco, Wood, and Joseph projections though...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

  3. #3
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Location
    Amarillo, TX
    Posts
    13,837

    Re: 2011 zips projection

    All Danny Dorn does is hit. In the right platoon (Dorn/Heisey) he'd be a beast.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  4. #4
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    NJ
    Posts
    16,314

    Re: 2011 zips projection

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    All Danny Dorn does is hit. In the right platoon (Dorn/Heisey) he'd be a beast.
    Plus, they are projecting that he does that as a righty. Imagine if they projected him hitting from the correct side of the plate?

    MONSTER.

    PS: Heisey vs LHP last year - .169/.242/.303

    Small sample, but worth noting.

  5. #5
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Guelph, ON
    Posts
    16,183

    Re: 2011 zips projection

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Plus, they are projecting that he does that as a righty. Imagine if they projected him hitting from the correct side of the plate?

    MONSTER.

    PS: Heisey vs LHP last year - .169/.242/.303

    Small sample, but worth noting.
    Re: Heisey's small sample, is it really worth noting? If we're going to estimate his true talent against LHP, what % of the estimate is made up of last year's performance? If it's less than 50% (and it's probably a lot less than 50%), doesn't it serve as more of a misleading distraction outside of the broader context of what we can expect from him?

    His performance against lefties last year does count, but I'm not sure what citing only that performance -- even with a note about small sample size -- does to advance our understanding of the situation. Nothing on you edbabbs, I find myself doing this all the time. Just something that came to mind.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  6. #6
    Member kpresidente's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Posts
    2,326

    Re: 2011 zips projection

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Re: Heisey's small sample, is it really worth noting? If we're going to estimate his true talent against LHP, what % of the estimate is made up of last year's performance? If it's less than 50% (and it's probably a lot less than 50%), doesn't it serve as more of a misleading distraction outside of the broader context of what we can expect from him?
    Well, he didn't hit lefties in the minors very well, either.

  7. #7
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Guelph, ON
    Posts
    16,183

    Re: 2011 zips projection

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    Well, he didn't hit lefties in the minors very well, either.
    That's fine, but then that should have been the point -- that he simply doesn't hit lefties well. Citing the 2010 data simply distracted from that.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  8. #8
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Guelph, ON
    Posts
    16,183

    Re: 2011 zips projection

    Zips loves it some Bill Bray. Top 3 comps are Billy Wager, Randy Myers and Mark Davis.

    Daryl Thompson's top comp is Chris Reitsma -- I find that funny and perhaps a tad too accurate.

    I know I said it last year too, but I'd be surprised if Dorn made it through the Rule V.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  9. #9
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    NJ
    Posts
    16,314

    Re: 2011 zips projection

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Zips loves it some Bill Bray. Top 3 comps are Billy Wager, Randy Myers and Mark Davis.

    Daryl Thompson's top comp is Chris Reitsma -- I find that funny and perhaps a tad too accurate.

    I know I said it last year too, but I'd be surprised if Dorn made it through the Rule V.

  10. #10
    Be the ball Roy Tucker's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2001
    Location
    Mason, OH
    Posts
    12,381

    Re: 2011 zips projection

    I do like the acronym ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events).

    Well done.

    It's about
    the ball,
    the bat,
    the mitt,
    the bases,
    and the fans

  11. #11
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Cincinnati, OH
    Posts
    11,492

  12. #12
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2000
    Location
    Bedford, KY
    Posts
    8,992

    Re: 2011 zips projection

    The projected 660 OPS (78 OPS+) for Janish is troubling at the moment, though Cozart's OPS of 680 (82 OPS+) isn't much better. I'd like to see someone else brought in at SS, for sure. The 100 OPS+ LF number (around 100 from everyone likely to play there, with the exception of a questionable Edmonds) looks pretty poor, too.

    If projections can be believed, the Red's main offensive starters should be above average overall, though it won't lead the league again.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
    -- Christy Matthewson
    "Show me a good loser and I'll show you an idiot."
    -- Leo Durocher

  13. #13
    Member Razor Shines's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2006
    Location
    Austin, Texas
    Posts
    6,329

    Re: 2011 zips projection

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    The projected 660 OPS (78 OPS+) for Janish is troubling at the moment, though Cozart's OPS of 680 (82 OPS+) isn't much better. I'd like to see someone else brought in at SS, for sure. The 100 OPS+ LF number (around 100 from everyone likely to play there, with the exception of a questionable Edmonds) looks pretty poor, too.

    If projections can be believed, the Red's main offensive starters should be above average overall, though it won't lead the league again.
    He'd equal what OCab hit last year add in that he plays better defense and he'll probably bat 8th, it's at least somewhat of a step up.

  14. #14
    Member Cedric's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2002
    Location
    Monroe
    Posts
    6,415

    Re: 2011 zips projection

    I don't know about the Bruce projection at all.

    I'm also expecting Homer to finally get a full year in the rotation. I expect him to improve a ton this year and be a stud for 2012.
    This is the time. The real Reds organization is back.

  15. #15
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Location
    Crown
    Posts
    4,138

    Re: 2011 zips projection

    Quote Originally Posted by Cedric View Post
    I don't know about the Bruce projection at all.

    I'm also expecting Homer to finally get a full year in the rotation. I expect him to improve a ton this year and be a stud for 2012.
    I'm getting this feeling too, as he's struck me as a 26 or 27 year old that finally gets it, perhaps like a Gavin Floyd or even a Chris Carpenter at 29.
    2015 Rotation: Under Construction


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25