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Thread: 2011 zips projection

  1. #1
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    2011 zips projection

    I didn't see any comment. Perhaps with the holidays, I missed it.

    http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/...ncinnati_reds/

    Folks who want to concede first bast to Yonder and move Votto have to ask themeslves...Why? The projection (which is usually young/rookie happy) believes that Gomes will out hit the big Cuban.

    Anybody really think Danny Dorn could do that?

    No way does Edmonds reach that projection in terms of playing time or in terms of rates.
    "Even a bad day at the ballpark beats the snot out of most other good days. I'll take my scorecard and pencil and beer and hot dog and rage at the dips and cheer at the highs, but I'm not ever going to stop loving this game and this team and nobody will ever take that away from me." Roy Tucker October 2010

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    Start the Reactor! *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
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    Re: 2011 zips projection

    Quote Originally Posted by dfs View Post
    Folks who want to concede first bast to Yonder and move Votto have to ask themeslves...Why? The projection (which is usually young/rookie happy) believes that Gomes will out hit the big Cuban.

    Anybody really think Danny Dorn could do that?
    These projections are based purely on quantitative results, so a guy like Alonso who has been hampered by injuries and is getting attention because of his tools is not going to come out ahead of a guy like Dorn who most feel is a AAAA player.

    Gotta love the Mesoraco, Wood, and Joseph projections though...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

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    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: 2011 zips projection

    All Danny Dorn does is hit. In the right platoon (Dorn/Heisey) he'd be a beast.
    Suck it up cupcake.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: 2011 zips projection

    Zips loves it some Bill Bray. Top 3 comps are Billy Wager, Randy Myers and Mark Davis.

    Daryl Thompson's top comp is Chris Reitsma -- I find that funny and perhaps a tad too accurate.

    I know I said it last year too, but I'd be surprised if Dorn made it through the Rule V.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: 2011 zips projection

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    All Danny Dorn does is hit. In the right platoon (Dorn/Heisey) he'd be a beast.
    Plus, they are projecting that he does that as a righty. Imagine if they projected him hitting from the correct side of the plate?

    MONSTER.

    PS: Heisey vs LHP last year - .169/.242/.303

    Small sample, but worth noting.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: 2011 zips projection

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Plus, they are projecting that he does that as a righty. Imagine if they projected him hitting from the correct side of the plate?

    MONSTER.

    PS: Heisey vs LHP last year - .169/.242/.303

    Small sample, but worth noting.
    Re: Heisey's small sample, is it really worth noting? If we're going to estimate his true talent against LHP, what % of the estimate is made up of last year's performance? If it's less than 50% (and it's probably a lot less than 50%), doesn't it serve as more of a misleading distraction outside of the broader context of what we can expect from him?

    His performance against lefties last year does count, but I'm not sure what citing only that performance -- even with a note about small sample size -- does to advance our understanding of the situation. Nothing on you edbabbs, I find myself doing this all the time. Just something that came to mind.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Be the ball Roy Tucker's Avatar
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    Re: 2011 zips projection

    I do like the acronym ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events).

    Well done.

    Pay attention to the open sky

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    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: 2011 zips projection

    The projected 660 OPS (78 OPS+) for Janish is troubling at the moment, though Cozart's OPS of 680 (82 OPS+) isn't much better. I'd like to see someone else brought in at SS, for sure. The 100 OPS+ LF number (around 100 from everyone likely to play there, with the exception of a questionable Edmonds) looks pretty poor, too.

    If projections can be believed, the Red's main offensive starters should be above average overall, though it won't lead the league again.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
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    Re: 2011 zips projection

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Re: Heisey's small sample, is it really worth noting? If we're going to estimate his true talent against LHP, what % of the estimate is made up of last year's performance? If it's less than 50% (and it's probably a lot less than 50%), doesn't it serve as more of a misleading distraction outside of the broader context of what we can expect from him?
    Well, he didn't hit lefties in the minors very well, either.

  12. #11
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: 2011 zips projection

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    Well, he didn't hit lefties in the minors very well, either.
    That's fine, but then that should have been the point -- that he simply doesn't hit lefties well. Citing the 2010 data simply distracted from that.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  13. #12
    Pre-tty, pre-tty good!! MWM's Avatar
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    Re: 2011 zips projection

    I realize these are all quantitative, but I have a hard time believing Jay Bruce will go backwards in OBP while remaining flat slugging. I can't imagine he goes backwards next year.
    Grape works as a soda. Sort of as a gum. I wonder why it doesn't work as a pie. Grape pie? There's no grape pie. - Larry David

  14. #13
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: 2011 zips projection

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    That's fine, but then that should have been the point -- that he simply doesn't hit lefties well. Citing the 2010 data simply distracted from that.
    I wasn't the one who automatically assumed that he should be the short side of the platoon just because he is a righty. Isn't that worse than using 100 or so major league PAs as a basis for reason?

    Not a big deal either way, but after seeing Votto struggle vs LHPs in the minors and then mash in the majors, I wonder how valuable those minor league splits really are.

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    Re: 2011 zips projection

    Quote Originally Posted by MWM View Post
    I realize these are all quantitative, but I have a hard time believing Jay Bruce will go backwards in OBP while remaining flat slugging. I can't imagine he goes backwards next year.
    I am expecting the arrival of Jay Bruce in 2011. Much like the Jay Bruce we saw late in the season in 2010.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

  16. #15
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: 2011 zips projection

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Zips loves it some Bill Bray. Top 3 comps are Billy Wager, Randy Myers and Mark Davis.

    Daryl Thompson's top comp is Chris Reitsma -- I find that funny and perhaps a tad too accurate.

    I know I said it last year too, but I'd be surprised if Dorn made it through the Rule V.


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