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Thread: 2011 zips projection

  1. #16
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: 2011 zips projection

    Dorn might want to learn to speak Japanese.

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  3. #17
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: 2011 zips projection

    I just don't get it with Dorn -- nobody AL team is interested in a 26 year old guy who hit .302/.398/.545 in AAA last year? Sure, he's limited defensively, but why pay Jack Cust $3M when you could have Dorn for free?
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  4. #18
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: 2011 zips projection

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I just don't get it with Dorn -- nobody AL team is interested in a 26 year old guy who hit .302/.398/.545 in AAA last year? Sure, he's limited defensively, but why pay Jack Cust $3M when you could have Dorn for free?
    Maybe because Dorn carries the risk of the unknown? If he bottoms out, you now have a hole in your roster that could have been filled by Cust, who you know will get you in the .800-.850 range of OPS?

  5. #19
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: 2011 zips projection

    Even against rhp, I'm not entirely sold on Dorn's ability to hit breaking pitches.

  6. #20
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: 2011 zips projection

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I just don't get it with Dorn -- nobody AL team is interested in a 26 year old guy who hit .302/.398/.545 in AAA last year? Sure, he's limited defensively, but why pay Jack Cust $3M when you could have Dorn for free?
    Between him and Horst not being taken, I am just utterly confused. Last year Ben Jukich was taken in the Rule V draft. He was ultimately returned, but Ben Jukich isn't nearly as good of a prospect as Horst is. How a lefty with stuff that grades out as average, good control and outstanding numbers in AA/AAA didn't get picked up is just confusing. Especially when we consider that these guys were taken:

    Jose Flores - 21 year old who hasn't played in High A - RHP
    Adrian Rosario - 20 year old who hasn't played in High A - RHP
    Mason Tobin - Didn't throw a pitch in 2010, only threw 2.2 in 2009 and in 2008 he was in Low A where he threw 37.2 innings with 18 strikeouts and 18 walks.
    Pat Egan - 25 years old, in AAA this season had a 1.70 WHIP, 53 hits allowed and 17 strikeouts in 37 innings.

    I stopped looking at this point because I am just glad that teams are dumb.

  7. #21
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: 2011 zips projection

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Maybe because Dorn carries the risk of the unknown? If he bottoms out, you now have a hole in your roster that could have been filled by Cust, who you know will get you in the .800-.850 range of OPS?
    Scroll down and look at some of the players I listed who were taken. Talk about risk? And honestly, for $25,000 I would 100% take the risk of watching Dorn hit all spring long to see what I thought instead of taking pitchers who have never played in High A. Every day of the week.

  8. #22
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: 2011 zips projection

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I stopped looking at this point because I am just glad that teams are dumb.
    Of course, we're the team that picked Sergio Valenzuela, one of the most laughable Rule V picks ever.

    Teams seem more interested in trying to hit the lottery than merely adding an asset.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  9. #23
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: 2011 zips projection

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Of course, we're the team that picked Sergio Valenzuela, one of the most laughable Rule V picks ever.

    Teams seem more interested in trying to hit the lottery than merely adding an asset.
    Touche.

  10. #24
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    Re: 2011 zips projection

    It's all about pitching, so I'm not surprised about Dorn, though I too can't see any reason why somebody wouldn't spend 25 grand to see what he can do in ST. Seems risk-free. I'm surprised we didn't lose Horst and pleased to see him come back to us. I wish I'd seen more of Dorn; there must be something in his swing that's just got him a bad label among the scouts. Anybody actually seen him enough to have a feel for that?

  11. #25
    This one's for you Edd Heath's Avatar
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    Re: 2011 zips projection

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Touche.
    Everyone's looking for a Josh Hamilton in the Rule 5.

    It's like everyone trying to find the next George Mason in the final 4.
    Some people play baseball. Baseball plays Jay Bruce.

  12. #26
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    Re: 2011 zips projection

    The HR totals all look pretty low to me. 16 for Stubbs? 29 for Bruce?

    I would hope that they each beat those projections by 10.
    Go BLUE!!!

  13. #27
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: 2011 zips projection

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Between him and Horst not being taken, I am just utterly confused. Last year Ben Jukich was taken in the Rule V draft. He was ultimately returned, but Ben Jukich isn't nearly as good of a prospect as Horst is. How a lefty with stuff that grades out as average, good control and outstanding numbers in AA/AAA didn't get picked up is just confusing. Especially when we consider that these guys were taken:

    Jose Flores - 21 year old who hasn't played in High A - RHP
    Adrian Rosario - 20 year old who hasn't played in High A - RHP
    Mason Tobin - Didn't throw a pitch in 2010, only threw 2.2 in 2009 and in 2008 he was in Low A where he threw 37.2 innings with 18 strikeouts and 18 walks.
    Pat Egan - 25 years old, in AAA this season had a 1.70 WHIP, 53 hits allowed and 17 strikeouts in 37 innings.

    I stopped looking at this point because I am just glad that teams are dumb.
    To think that any of us are smarter than all the organizations in baseball combined might be the questionable action in the equation.

  14. #28
    Member Razor Shines's Avatar
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    Re: 2011 zips projection

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    The projected 660 OPS (78 OPS+) for Janish is troubling at the moment, though Cozart's OPS of 680 (82 OPS+) isn't much better. I'd like to see someone else brought in at SS, for sure. The 100 OPS+ LF number (around 100 from everyone likely to play there, with the exception of a questionable Edmonds) looks pretty poor, too.

    If projections can be believed, the Red's main offensive starters should be above average overall, though it won't lead the league again.
    He'd equal what OCab hit last year add in that he plays better defense and he'll probably bat 8th, it's at least somewhat of a step up.

  15. #29
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    Re: 2011 zips projection

    I don't know about the Bruce projection at all.

    I'm also expecting Homer to finally get a full year in the rotation. I expect him to improve a ton this year and be a stud for 2012.
    This is the time. The real Reds organization is back.

  16. #30
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: 2011 zips projection

    Quote Originally Posted by Cedric View Post
    I don't know about the Bruce projection at all.

    I'm also expecting Homer to finally get a full year in the rotation. I expect him to improve a ton this year and be a stud for 2012.
    I'm getting this feeling too, as he's struck me as a 26 or 27 year old that finally gets it, perhaps like a Gavin Floyd or even a Chris Carpenter at 29.
    2015 Rotation: Under Construction


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