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Thread: 2011 zips projection

  1. #31
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: 2011 zips projection

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    To think that any of us are smarter than all the organizations in baseball combined might be the questionable action in the equation.
    To think that on a single decision that some people on this board wouldn't make a better one is pretty questionable too. There have been many instances where many posters on here were dead right about something that a Major League team did and they were right about it from the very beginning. Now if we are talking about what they do as the entire body of work, yeah, you are very likely correct. If you are talking about on a single transaction, well, I would say that I believe us mortals can outthink GM's at times.

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  3. #32
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: 2011 zips projection

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    To think that on a single decision that some people on this board wouldn't make a better one is pretty questionable too. There have been many instances where many posters on here were dead right about something that a Major League team did and they were right about it from the very beginning. Now if we are talking about what they do as the entire body of work, yeah, you are very likely correct. If you are talking about on a single transaction, well, I would say that I believe us mortals can outthink GM's at times.
    The one we are talking about is where the entire league passed on a guy. I would say that 999 out of 1000 times, if the entire league passes on someone, they are probably correct in their assessment.

    But I do agree with you on the transaction by transaction basis versus the entire body of work, especially when someone doesn't have any skin in the game on those suggested moves.

  4. #33
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: 2011 zips projection

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    The one we are talking about is where the entire league passed on a guy. I would say that 999 out of 1000 times, if the entire league passes on someone, they are probably correct in their assessment.

    But I do agree with you on the transaction by transaction basis versus the entire body of work, especially when someone doesn't have any skin in the game on those suggested moves.
    The entire league once passed on Cecil Fielder. Nelson Cruz was available to everyone. Dorn crushes RH pitching, the hand he'll face 75% of the time. Or 100% if used in a strict platoon.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  5. #34
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: 2011 zips projection

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    The entire league once passed on Cecil Fielder. Nelson Cruz was available to everyone. Dorn crushes RH pitching, the hand he'll face 75% of the time. Or 100% if used in a strict platoon.
    I think that the teams know who Dorn is and what he does. We really don't have some sort of inside info on the guy.

    And when it comes to guys who were either passed up (Fielder), drafted later (Pujols/Piazza) or traded for less than they ended up being worth (Bagwell), the PED question always looms and makes the assessment of the decision kind of unfair.

  6. #35
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: 2011 zips projection

    PEDS. do not matter. it's a strawman argument, and you ignored Cruz. Fielder's numbers indicated he had power, but he was... fat. Teams passed on him so he went to Japan. Cruz was available to every team but had to settle for a minor league deal with the Rangers. Colby Lewis is another guy available to everyone.

    Guys slip through all the time. GM's tend to favor the MLB known. Why do guys like Juan Castro still get jobs? Is he really better than the Ray Olmedos and Gookie Dawkins of the world, or is he just "known"?
    Suck it up cupcake.

  7. #36
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: 2011 zips projection

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    PEDS. do not matter. it's a strawman argument, and you ignored Cruz. Fielder's numbers indicated he had power, but he was... fat. Teams passed on him so he went to Japan. Cruz was available to every team but had to settle for a minor league deal with the Rangers. Colby Lewis is another guy available to everyone.

    Guys slip through all the time. GM's tend to favor the MLB known. Why do guys like Juan Castro still get jobs? Is he really better than the Ray Olmedos and Gookie Dawkins of the world, or is he just "known"?
    There are a few things to think about:

    1) Regarding PEDs, they definitely do matter. If everyone passes on Player X and then he gets roided up and becomes a masher, are all the people in baseball idiots for not taking that future use of PEDs into account? You can only make a decision on the info you have at hand.

    2) The other thing to keep in mind is that the general public really only has access to publically available data. If you have two seemingly similar players and one continually gets jobs and the other can't get a tryout, wouldn't you think that there is something more to it? Maybe Castro is a known quantity, but you aren't born "known". There's a reason...maybe Known Player X works well with the younger guys or has proven to be able to play better in the role they want him for. Maybe non-Known Player Y has a substance abuse problem, or continually shows up late to practices and games. Maybe Known Player X is a master at stealing signs or does something else that enhances his value. Maybe non-Known Player Y has an ego problem and only wants to sign if promised a starting spot.


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