Finding a Home for Yonder Alonso (aka Trade him for an Upton!)

[Benihana]

Rather than think of hypothetical trades inolving hypothetical prospects, I think it would be interesting to look at the most logical candidates for a Yonder Alonso trade.

Alonso is clearly the Reds' most tradeable chip, as even if they can't re-sign Votto to a LTC, I can't imagine they are going to let Alonso sit around in AAA (or on the bench) for the next 3+ years. IMO, that would be a waste of resources.

So what teams make the most sense for Alonso? Once we figure that out, we can look at who the Reds might seek in return.

1. Diamondbacks (now out of the Konerko bidding, but still dangling Upton)
2. D-Rays (could use a young 1B to complement their core)
3. Pirates (need to start building somewhere)
4. Rockies (Helton isn't getting younger or better)
5. Dodgers (Loney is not giving acceptable production and was reportedly a non-tender candidate)
6. Rangers (have a hole there after dealing Smoak for Lee)
7. Cubs (holes everywhere, will Reds make a deal in the division?)
8. Angels (probably will look to upgrade with a more proven/expensive vet)

Who DOESN'T make sense

1. Cardinals (Pujols)
2. Yankees (Texiera)
3. Phillies (Howard)
4. Mets (Davis)
5. Royals (Butler/Hosmer)
6. Tigers (Cabrera)
7. Braves (Freeman)
8. Mariners (Smoak)
9. Marlins (Morrison)
10. A's (Barton/Carter)
11. White Sox (Dunn/Konerko?)
12. Twins (Morneau)
13. Astros (Wallace)

Who COULD make sense if their high-priced player leaves

1. Padres (Gonzalez)
2. Brewers (Fielder)

After this analysis, it looks like Arizona and Tampa are the two best destinations for Alonso. Arizona could also use pitching, and a deal for Upton built around Alonso and Leake makes a ton of sense for both sides. Tampa does not need pitching, and a straight up deal for Jason Bartlett might make some sense here, although I'd prefer to get a LF and the Rays don't have any interest in trading Jennings. Maybe an Alonso for BJ Upton deal could make some sense? Upton could play LF and solve the leadoff problem, although his production has been trending the wrong way. I'd rather have his brother, but I could settle for BJ if it would only cost Alonso + one or two others (Heisey?). I also wouldn't mind buying low on Tim Beckham, but more as a throw-in to a deal than anything else. Thoughts? Am I missing an obvious destination?

[lollipopcurve]

Nice post. My question re: Alonso is whether he's shown enough that a team would see him as the future at 1B or DH. We'll find out, because I'm sure the Reds have done the same analysis you have and by now should know whether teams will give up anything of value for a package in which Alonso is a key piece.

[membengal]

Nice well thought out post, beni. Thanks for the read.

[RedsManRick]

Angels have Kendry Morales coming back from injury.

[RedsManRick]

Perhaps there's a 3-way trade involving Ellsbury or Scutaro to Cincinnati, Alonso to Milwaukee, Fielder to Boston (prospects from Boston to Mil).

I'd say D-Rays and D'Backs make far and away the most sense.

[mth123]

Agree Beni. Been saying Alonso to TB or AZ for a while now. Leake, Alonso, Heisey and two lower level guys who are highly regarded (maybe Boxberger and Duran say) should get AZ' attention in an Upton deal.

With TB, I'd deal Alonso straight-up for either Matt Joyce or Reid Brignac. Not a ton of interest in a one year rental of Bartlett and his likely $5 Million arb award uinless more comes the Reds way.

While some of the other teams on the list make sense, can't see a real deal there. A big package highlighted by Alonso and Leake for Andrew McCutcheon would be a good deal for the Reds, but the Reds would probably need to overwhelm the Pirates. Maybe a deal similar to the one above for Upton, possibly subbing Gomes and Maloney for Boxberger and Duran. 2 Fifths of a rotation and two thirds of an OF with the 1B of the future would be hard for the Bucs to turn down and the deal would still improve the Reds in a big way.

[Will M]

1) Benihana: nice analysis. I agree that a Leake/Alonso deal for Upton would be a trade that helps both clubs.

2) OK. Time for blasphemy...

Joey Votto seems very lukewarm about signing a LTC with the Reds. If he really does intend to leave after 2013 the team would like to deal him at some point rather than just get the picks when he leaves. So how about this?

1. Reds trade Votto to the Red Sox
2. Diamondbacks trade Upton & Drew to the Reds
3. all those prospects the Red Sox keep wanting to deal for Adrian Gonzalez go to the Diamondbacks.

The Reds play Alonso at 1B. They get a guy for LF & also get a guy for SS.
The team lacks a big huge thumper but is very very solid 1 through 8. They could bat Upton-Bruce 3-4 and hope they both mature into middle of the order hitters.

[corkedbat]

1) Benihana: nice analysis. I agree that a Leake/Alonso deal for Upton would be a trade that helps both clubs.

2) OK. Time for blasphemy...

Joey Votto seems very lukewarm about signing a LTC with the Reds. If he really does intend to leave after 2013 the team would like to deal him at some point rather than just get the picks when he leaves. So how about this?

1. Reds trade Votto to the Red Sox
2. Diamondbacks trade Upton & Drew to the Reds
3. all those prospects the Red Sox keep wanting to deal for Adrian Gonzalez go to the Diamondbacks.

The Reds play Alonso at 1B. They get a guy for LF & also get a guy for SS.
The team lacks a big huge thumper but is very very solid 1 through 8. They could bat Upton-Bruce 3-4 and hope they both mature into middle of the order hitters.

Not saying that the idea of dealing Joey is impossible, but two things. Joey is still going to be relatively cheap and under the Reds control for a couple of more years, so now is not the time to deal him. More improtantly, would the Cardinals deal Albert Pujols for Upton nad Drew?

I don't think so. I'd want more in any deal for JV. I've been an advocate of dealing Alonso for a LFer, but I believe that the problem is, he just doesn't have that much value. right now.

There are a glut of young 1B-types and many, if not most, have shown more power than YA. I'm think it's probably best to hold onto Yonder until at least the tradedealine and pray that he comes out smoking with more power o start the season being further removed from the wrist surgery.

It would allow you to get a better handle on where you stand with JV in terms of a LTC. It would also allow you to better idea on whether he is your 1B of the future or possibly let him shine up he status as a prospect for a deal.

Holding onto YA isn't a bad thing, but it is a bit of a gamble. I've just had this feeling that the Reds have had a solid group of prospects that might just bring something decent in return and they are overplaying the hand. Then again, I might just be over-valuating Reds prospects. Nah!

[Will M]

Not saying that the idea of dealing Joey is impossible, but two things. Joey is still going to be relatively cheap and under the Reds control for a couple of more years, so now is not the time to deal him. More improtantly, would the Cardinals deal Albert Pujols for Upton nad Drew?

I don't think so. I'd want more in any deal for JV. I've been an advocate of dealing Alonso for a LFer, but I believe that the problem is, he just doesn't have that much value. right now.

There are a glut of young 1B-types and many, if not most, have shown more power than YA. I'm think it's probably best to hold onto Yonder until at least the tradedealine and pray that he comes out smoking with more power o start the season being further removed from the wrist surgery.

It would allow you to get a better handle on where you stand with JV in terms of a LTC. It would also allow you to better idea on whether he is your 1B of the future or possibly let him shine up he status as a prospect for a deal.

Holding onto YA isn't a bad thing, but it is a bit of a gamble. I've just had this feeling that the Reds have had a solid group of prospects that might just bring something decent in return and they are overplaying the hand. Then again, I might just be over-valuating Reds prospects. Nah!

I suspect teams look at Alonso as a Lyle Overbay type. when the Reds say "his wrist injury sapped his power. it will come back" the other teams is skeptical. i think that Walt isn't going to get the value out of Alonso that he would like this offseason. starting Alonso in AAA with the hope that he 'tears it up' is what i suspect will happen. then maybe we see a mid season deal.

the winter meetings are next week. if Walt can't swing a deal by ~12/18/10 then i don't see it happening.

[TheNext44]

I suspect teams look at Alonso as a Lyle Overbay type. when the Reds say "his wrist injury sapped his power. it will come back" the other teams is skeptical. i think that Walt isn't going to get the value out of Alonso that he would like this offseason. starting Alonso in AAA with the hope that he 'tears it up' is what i suspect will happen. then maybe we see a mid season deal.

the winter meetings are next week. if Walt can't swing a deal by ~12/18/10 then i don't see it happening.

Overbay was an above average 1B (.854 OPS) until he was hit on the hand in 2007. It was a much worse injury than Alonso's, as he broke three bones.

People keep saying Alonso might only be another Sean Casey, or Lyle Overbay, or Nick Johnson, as if that's a bad thing.

Overbay was a key part of the Ritchie Sexson deal, as a prospect.
Johnson was a key part of the Javier Vasquez deal, as a prospect.
And of course, Casey was traded for Dave Burba, who was the Reds best pitcher at the time.

Guys like Alonso have decent trade value, because they are known quantities, who will be cheap and under team control many years. I'm not sure there's a good match out there, but Alonso should be able to bring back a league average, veteran LF.

[redsfandan]

While some of the other teams on the list make sense, can't see a real deal there. A big package highlighted by Alonso and Leake for Andrew McCutcheon would be a good deal for the Reds, but the Reds would probably need to overwhelm the Pirates. Maybe a deal similar to the one above for Upton, possibly subbing Gomes and Maloney for Boxberger and Duran. 2 Fifths of a rotation and two thirds of an OF with the 1B of the future would be hard for the Bucs to turn down and the deal would still improve the Reds in a big way.

There's a chance that Pedro Alvarez will eventually be moved to 1st. IF that happens then where does Alonso fit?