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View Poll Results: In 2011 the 2010 Reds will...

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  • fall apart and have a loosing record

    0 0%
  • win some games but fail to make the playoffs

    10 52.63%
  • make the playoffs but get booted in the 1st rd again

    4 21.05%
  • make the playoffs and have a good run at the WS

    5 26.32%
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Thread: What if 2011 Reds look the same as last year

  1. #1
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    What If NO Trades are Made this Off-season?

    The long-time assumption has been that somebody will get dealt.

    We have seemingly unprecedented depth, we're a year ahead of schedule in terms of competing for championships, and the minor leagues are starting to stack up with depth - not with certainty. What I mean by that is no one knows what is going to happen with the Yonders, Juans, Sappelts, and Maloneys of the world where as 3 years ago they'd be locks to make the Reds.

    With depth comes uncertainty, but ol' Walt never let's that bother him, "These things have their way of working out." (paraphrasing)

    So, I thought I'd examine where we'll be in a few months if the season kicks off with only a Cairo signing here and a Rhodes signing there. Or neither. In six or twelve months, what narrative will have developed in relation to our prospects that are blocked?

    First a quick run down on 2011 roster spots (My own best guess). Not all 25 spots, but the pertinent ones here. Blocked players are in BOLD :

    Rotation:
    Volquez - #1 starter
    Arroyo - locked up
    Cueto - vet
    Bailey - vet
    Wood - balls*

    Bullpen:
    Coco - vet
    Masset - vet
    Chapman - heat
    Bray - vet
    Leake - too good for AAA**
    Ondrusek ***
    Smith***

    Pitchers Blocked in AAA:
    Fisher, Burton, Owings, DRH, Maloney

    From the preeminent Redszone Rankings:

    Prospect #1 - Aroldis Chapman, LHP - He'll be on the 25 man roster, but as a reliever? Rhodes not resigned?
    Prospect #2 - Devin Mesoraco, C - Not expected to make the 25 man, ETA September
    Prospect #3 - Yorman Rodriguez, CF - N/A
    Prospect #4 - Yonder Alonso, 1B - Yonder makes the team as the LH off the bench? Insurance for Votto situation. Potential stud .900 OPS.
    Prospect #5 - Billy Hamilton, SS - N/A
    Prospect #6 - Yasmani Grandal, C - Can he relieve the Reds at 1b or C by 2012?
    Prospect #7 - Todd Frazier, IF/OF - Does he do enough in AAA to platoon in LF/3b in 2012? What about...
    Prospect #8 - Juan Francisco, 3B - Reds love him. He could work on plate discipline all year in AAA or earn bench spot. I think he's a lock for the 25 man.
    Prospect #9 - Zack Cozart, SS - Does he do enough to beat out Alonso, Juan, Valaika as INF prospects off the bench?
    Prospect #10 - David Sappelt, CF - All year in AAA. Injury callup?
    Prospect #11 - Donnie Joseph, LHP - ETA September?
    Prospect #12 - Ismael Guillon, LHP - N/A
    Prospect #13 - Brad Boxberger, RHP - N/A
    Prospect #14 - Chris Valaika, IF - Cairo replacement?
    Prospect #15 - Kyle Lotzkar, RHP - N/A
    Prospect #16 - Ryan LaMarre, OF - N/A
    Prospect #17 - Juan Duran, OF - N/A
    Prospect #18 - Junior Arias, SS - N/A
    Prospect #19 - Sam Lecure, RHP - Beat out Leake for long relief?

    Some others blocked in AAA next year:
    Dorn, Negron, Perez, Thompson

    ************************************************** ****

    Ages of blocked players 2010 & 2011. Core prospects bolded.
    Fisher 27>>28
    Burton 29>>30
    Owings 27>>28
    DRH 25>>26
    Maloney 26>>27
    Mesoraco 22>>23
    Alonso 23>>24
    Cozart 24>>25
    Sappelt 23>>24
    Frazier 24>>25

    Lecure 26>>27
    Dorn 25>>26
    Negron 24>>25
    Perez 25>>26
    Thompson 24>>25
    Valaika 24>>25

    The only players, it seems, that have "time" to retain their prospect standing while staying in AAA next year are Mesoraco, Alonso, Cozart, Frazier, Sappelt, Negron, Perez (due to short time in the US so far), Valaika and Thompson - and that's putting pressure on all of them to dominate next year in AAA, as their ages dictate a level of mastery. Ultimately, that pressure is a result, or byproduct, of all the competition throughout the organization, which is a good thing. Anyway, in my opinion, it can be said that the values of our core AAA prospects can withstand one more year down on the farm. Meanwhile these players can also be provided the benefit of a September call up, injury call up, or standard promotion in 2011. Talk about depth and flexibility when you've got a slew of hungry 23-26 year old vets in AAA ready to contribute in Cincinnati at a moments notice.

    Granted, many on the above list are nowhere near being prospects anymore, and the fact they will be in AAA another year can't be pleasing to them - and can't look good to other teams if they were to languish all of 2011 in AAA. So, perhaps if you're Walt, looking to deal players with MLB experience that are blocked is the best route. We've seen the value many GM's place on "proven" MLB players. To some extent Fisher, Burton, Owings, DRH, Maloney, and Lecure must have some real value that isn't realized here. I don't want to say a Burton, Owings and Maloney package can haul Jose Reyes by any means, but I wonder if we wouldn't be surprised at what it could haul in. These guys aren't exactly scrap heap players...yet. A Maloney/Lecure package, for example, holds some value in that perhaps a team is getting their 4th and 5th starters here, depending on that team's depth and injury status.

    All this said, there aren't many holes on this Reds team anyway. Despite the amount of talent blocked or vying for position, it makes a lot of sense we may not see a trade because many of the highest upside prospects still could benefit from a year in AAA without losing an undue amount of luster. Perhaps Walt ought to try unloading from the bottom of the depth chart. If nothing pans out you're still really really deep. That's been the word on the Reds anyway - really really deep.


    *switch out Wood with Leake if you want
    **Leake may end up in the blocked group in AAA to remain on track for starting
    ***Smith and Ondrusek are interchangable with the bullpeners in AAA discussed
    Last edited by mdccclxix; 12-07-2010 at 04:02 AM.
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  3. #2
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    Re: What If NO Trades are Made this Off-season?

    I'm all for minor league depth, but if the Reds don't improve at the major league level this off-season it will be a huge disappointment.

    I want to see an improved team that will have a chance to win at least one playoff series. That is the positive progression.

    The team has obvious weaknesses, they could use improvements at SS and LF, and this is the time to trade some assets to make these improvements.

  4. #3
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: What If NO Trades are Made this Off-season?

    Jocketty didn't do any trades last off-season either, and it resulted in winning the division. The year before that, it was only the acquisition of Ramon Hernandez. It looks like he's going with a 'why fix it if it ain't broken?' approach.

  5. #4
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    Re: What If NO Trades are Made this Off-season?

    Other teams know the Reds are in that "good, but not quite good enough" place right now, with assets to sell, and they want to see how anxious the team is to deal. Jocketty is right in proceeding with caution, making sure that in plugging a hole in one place he doesn't blow a hole somewhere else.

    My guess is that he's seen enough interest from parties they could deal with. They'll be willing to let the eager beavers chew up the meetings before doing business in quieter waters.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  6. #5
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    Re: What If NO Trades are Made this Off-season?

    It would be a gamble, but not a disaster.

  7. #6
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    Re: What If NO Trades are Made this Off-season?

    It will be very disappointing if the Reds do nothing this offseason. 2010 was a great season but we need to set our sights higher in 2011. The Reds can't count on the Brewers, Cubs, and Pirates being as bad as they were in 2010. Upgrades need to be made in left field, and hopefully at SS too. I think entering the 2011 season with essentially the same team as the year before is just asking for a let down.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  8. #7
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    Re: What If NO Trades are Made this Off-season?

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Other teams know the Reds are in that "good, but not quite good enough" place right now, with assets to sell, and they want to see how anxious the team is to deal. Jocketty is right in proceeding with caution, making sure that in plugging a hole in one place he doesn't blow a hole somewhere else.

    My guess is that he's seen enough interest from parties they could deal with. They'll be willing to let the eager beavers chew up the meetings before doing business in quieter waters.
    yeah. The only two teams that present any real challenge in the division would be St. Louis and the Brewers. I like the current reds roster over what either of those teams can put on the field.

    Other than a TOR starter, I don't want to see the reds pursue "stars" in order to fill holes. That way lies madness.

    Small moves.
    "Even a bad day at the ballpark beats the snot out of most other good days. I'll take my scorecard and pencil and beer and hot dog and rage at the dips and cheer at the highs, but I'm not ever going to stop loving this game and this team and nobody will ever take that away from me." Roy Tucker October 2010

  9. #8
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: What If NO Trades are Made this Off-season?

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    It will be very disappointing if the Reds do nothing this offseason. 2010 was a great season but we need to set our sights higher in 2011. The Reds can't count on the Brewers, Cubs, and Pirates being as bad as they were in 2010. Upgrades need to be made in left field, and hopefully at SS too. I think entering the 2011 season with essentially the same team as the year before is just asking for a let down.
    I feel bad for you, you seem to have been in a continual state of disappointment ever since Jocketty was hired.

  10. #9
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: What If NO Trades are Made this Off-season?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I'm all for minor league depth, but if the Reds don't improve at the major league level this off-season it will be a huge disappointment.

    I want to see an improved team that will have a chance to win at least one playoff series. That is the positive progression.

    The team has obvious weaknesses, they could use improvements at SS and LF, and this is the time to trade some assets to make these improvements.
    They also could use an Ace pitcher, although not many feel we lost in the playoffs due to pitching.

    Here are the problems with the three upgrades:

    * Ace pitcher - payroll would need to be increased unless Cordero vanishes

    * Shortstop - an increase in offense can't be at the expense of defense. This staff benefits from trusting their D.

    * Left Field - an increase in defense can't be at the expense of offense. Gomes RBI production was a perceived value in LF and may not appear from elsewhere.

    In my mind, the players that can fulfill these upgrades are either too expensive for the Reds or untradable. Further, with a decent LH bat in LF to platoon, and the expectation that Janish can OPS near .700, I think the Reds will be in it until the deadline where they can capture that ace or SS.
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  11. #10
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: What If NO Trades are Made this Off-season?

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Other teams know the Reds are in that "good, but not quite good enough" place right now, with assets to sell, and they want to see how anxious the team is to deal. Jocketty is right in proceeding with caution, making sure that in plugging a hole in one place he doesn't blow a hole somewhere else.

    My guess is that he's seen enough interest from parties they could deal with. They'll be willing to let the eager beavers chew up the meetings before doing business in quieter waters.
    That's a great way of putting it. Walt can walk around loaded with depth and say, "What, me worry?"

    Next season, if a starter, or two starters, or even three go out, we could weather that better than 90% of teams. Lost an starting OFer? not a problem. 3b? SS? 2b? 1b? C? We have quite reasonable solutions for any of those positions. We won't be seeing Buck Coats or Dwyane Wise this year when injury strikes (hopefully not very hard).

    As for being "not quite good enough", well, perhaps last year will have acquainted the team with the "big time" which didn't always treat them well. Think of the St Louis series, the SF series, the Philly series, the playoffs, etc. In most series it was the offense that didn't show up.

    Lastly, I think if the bench has Cairo, Alonso, Francisco, Heisey and Cozart, your LF and SS are even more potent offensively than last year.
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  12. #11
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    Re: What If NO Trades are Made this Off-season?

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post

    In my mind, the players that can fulfill these upgrades are either too expensive for the Reds or untradable. Further, with a decent LH bat in LF to platoon, and the expectation that Janish can OPS near .700, I think the Reds will be in it until the deadline where they can capture that ace or SS.

    I think we have become conditioned to believe that the Reds can't ever afford upgrades. These kinds of press reports come out year after year. Yet the Reds somehow signed a Cordero, signed a Chapman, extended Arroyo.

    The Reds seem to have the money for occasional big moves when they think they are necessary.

    Now is the time when some spending for one or two good veterans is necessary. This is no longer a rebuilding team. It is a good team with a window to succeed. Now is the time to finish the product.

    I'm not saying the Reds should go overboard. But if this team can't afford to add one good major league piece this off-season, then it will be extremely difficult for them to ever advance very far.
    Last edited by Kc61; 12-07-2010 at 01:45 PM.

  13. #12
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    Re: What If NO Trades are Made this Off-season?

    I have a side question...

    Why does it seem like everybody likes LeCure better than Maloney, when Maloney is a lefty who was drafted higher, has a better career ERA, a better career WHIP, a better career K/9, a better career K/BB, has performed better in his ML stint(s), and has been a more highly-regarded prospect for a longer period of time?

  14. #13
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    Re: What If NO Trades are Made this Off-season?

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    I have a side question...

    Why does it seem like everybody likes LeCure better than Maloney, when Maloney is a lefty who was drafted higher, has a better career ERA, a better career WHIP, a better career K/9, a better career K/BB, has performed better in his ML stint(s), and has been a more highly-regarded prospect for a longer period of time?
    Put me in the Maloney camp. In other threads I've focused on LeCure because I think he's the worst viable option and thus makes for a good talking point about replacement.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: What If NO Trades are Made this Off-season?

    Problem as I see it, KC, is that the two positions most in need of an upgrade are ones in which the organization has in-house alternatives that are going to be pretty nearly as good as anybody we're likely to acquire without "blowing a hole" elsewhere as lollipop put it. In LF, there are Heisey, Sappelt, Frazier; at SS, Janish, Cozart, Negron. To get somebody significantly better than them will cost a good bit both in talent and money. For that reason I don't see a move happening here. I expect no major moves.

  16. #15
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: What If NO Trades are Made this Off-season?

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    I have a side question...

    Why does it seem like everybody likes LeCure better than Maloney, when Maloney is a lefty who was drafted higher, has a better career ERA, a better career WHIP, a better career K/9, a better career K/BB, has performed better in his ML stint(s), and has been a more highly-regarded prospect for a longer period of time?
    For me, it seems like he passed Maloney on the Reds depth chart. Not sure of the innings pitched or why Lecure got the call first last year (luck of the draw?), but it has been my impression. I like Maloney though. He'd be the #3 on the Pirates (not saying much).
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