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Thread: Project Prospects Top 25 Prospect List

  1. #1
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Project Prospects Top 25 Prospect List

    Three Reds make the top 16 ... pretty impressive.

    12 Yonder Alonso
    15 Aroldis Chapman
    16 Devin Mesoraco

    Yonder Alonso:
    Best attribute - Hit tool
    Biggest weakness - Speed
    Upside is: Regular, every-day type

    Aroldis Chapman:
    Best attribute - Fastball velocity
    Biggest weakness - Command
    Upside is No. 1-2 starter; Frequent all-star

    Devin Mesoraco:
    Best attribute - Power
    Biggest weakness - None
    Upside is Quality regular; occasional all-star

    http://projectprospect.com/article/2...-prospect-list
    I miss Adam Dunn.

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    Re: Project Prospects Top 25 Prospect List

    How does Alonso rank 12 as a quality regular, but Chapman and Mesoraco rank behind him with upsides of perennial All Star and sometime All Star respectively?

    Is it floor? Likliehood of happening?
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    Re: Project Prospects Top 25 Prospect List

    Four teams combined for more than half the prospects in the top-25.
    Cincinnati had #12, #15, and #17.
    Kansas City had #5, #8, and #18.
    Tampa Bay had #14, #15, and #21.
    Atlanta had #9, #19, #24, and #25.

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    Re: Project Prospects Top 25 Prospect List

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    How does Alonso rank 12 as a quality regular, but Chapman and Mesoraco rank behind him with upsides of perennial All Star and sometime All Star respectively?

    Is it floor? Likliehood of happening?
    Maybe the number of slugging 1B's already in the majors? Just a guess.

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    Re: Project Prospects Top 25 Prospect List

    I would definitely take Chapman and Mesoraco over Alonso without thinking twice.

    Chapman would rank in my top three. Of the players listed above him, the only two players I would even consider trading Chapman for are Mike Trout and Bryce Harper.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

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    Re: Project Prospects Top 25 Prospect List

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    How does Alonso rank 12 as a quality regular, but Chapman and Mesoraco rank behind him with upsides of perennial All Star and sometime All Star respectively?

    Is it floor? Likliehood of happening?
    PP is very big on the floor of players and from talking with those guys they really think Alonso has a very high floor.

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    Re: Project Prospects Top 25 Prospect List

    Hey Project Prospect, what's with the two #15s? If they tied, there shouldn't be a #16- there are actually 26 guys on the list.
    "In baseball, you don't know nothin'"...Yogi Berra

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    Re: Project Prospects Top 25 Prospect List

    Quote Originally Posted by chicoruiz View Post
    Hey Project Prospect, what's with the two #15s? If they tied, there shouldn't be a #16- there are actually 26 guys on the list.
    No, there are 25. They skipped #19 for some reason.

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    Re: Project Prospects Top 25 Prospect List

    I would imagine that the order of players from #10-17 is pretty random and interchangeable. Maybe Chapman pitching in relief the second half of the season lowered his prospect level?

    But this speaks very highly of the Reds organization. Just a few years ago, they had a similar threesome in Bruce, Bailey and Votto.

    I also think this makes it more difficult for posters to argue that Alonso has little trade value. Sure he's at the most populated position, but he really seems to be at the top of that class. He's not your ordinary 1B prospect.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Re: Project Prospects Top 25 Prospect List

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    I would definitely take Chapman and Mesoraco over Alonso without thinking twice.

    Chapman would rank in my top three. Of the players listed above him, the only two players I would even consider trading Chapman for are Mike Trout and Bryce Harper.
    They agree with you, kinda.

    Here's another list from them based solely on potential:

    Project Prospect Top 25 Prospects by OPF

    Chapman is third overall. Mesoraco is 25th and Alonso is not even on it.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Project Prospects Top 25 Prospect List

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    I would imagine that the order of players from #10-17 is pretty random and interchangeable. Maybe Chapman pitching in relief the second half of the season lowered his prospect level?

    But this speaks very highly of the Reds organization. Just a few years ago, they had a similar threesome in Bruce, Bailey and Votto.

    I also think this makes it more difficult for posters to argue that Alonso has little trade value. Sure he's at the most populated position, but he really seems to be at the top of that class. He's not your ordinary 1B prospect.
    But he's not really at the top of that class. Eric Hosmer, Brandon Belt and Freddie Freeman are all 1B that rank ahead of him on this list. Jesus Montero, Wil Myers and maybe even Bryce Harper might end up there as well. That is really the point. Between the teams that have a big time guy locked up (Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard, Mark Texiera, Adrian Gonzalez, Justin Morneau, Miguel Cabrera) a similarly touted kid already there (Justin Smoak, Ike Davis, Gaby Hernandez, Daric Barton, Matt Laporta) a top player in place (Joey Votto, Prince Fielder, Paul Konerko, Todd Helton, Kendry Morales), defensive liabilities that they want to move there (Carlos Lee, Adam Lind), kids on the way (Hosmer, Belt, Freeman, Brandon Allen, Leslie Anderson, Anthony Rizzo, Bobby Borchering etc) a supply of productive vets available for no talent every year (Adam Laroche, Carlos Pena, Aubrey Huff, Lyle Overbay, Derek Lee, Lance Berkman, Nick Johnson, Jorge Cantu, etc.) and other blocked kids who may be on the market (Lars Anderson, Brett Wallace, maybe Allen) its pretty hard to see why a team would give much for a 1B unless he projects as upper echelon. There are plenty being drafted, converted and available every year. There are a few teams that would probably be interested in obtaining Alonso, but many are teams that have little to offer. Unless you could get Andrew McCutcheon, do the Pirates have anything you'd deal Alonso for? How about the Padres? Alonso would be OK in a package similar to how Rizzo was dealt in the Gonzalez deal, but I just don't see him being special enough to headline a deal for anything all that significant. If the Reds could get a good defending platoon LH bat who can add some pop or lead-off skill for him at a position of need (Matt Joyce is a good target) straight up, it would be a great deal. Otherwise, he'll likely be used to get a guy that the other team is dumping for salary reasons.
    Last edited by mth123; 12-15-2010 at 07:17 AM.
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    Re: Project Prospects Top 25 Prospect List

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    But he's not really at the top of that class. Eric Hosmer, Brandon Belt and Freddie Freeman are all 1B that rank ahead of him on this list. Jesus Montero, Wil Myers and maybe even Bryce Harper might end up there as well. That is really the point. Between the teams that have a big time guy locked up (Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard, Mark Texiera, Adrian Gonzalez, Justin Morneau, Miguel Cabrera) a similarly touted kid already there (Justin Smoak, Ike Davis, Gaby Hernandez, Daric Barton, Matt Laporta) a top player in place (Joey Votto, Prince Fielder, Paul Konerko, Todd Helton, Kendry Morales), defensive liabilities that they want to move there (Carlos Lee, Adam Lind), kids on the way (Hosmer, Belt, Freeman, Brandon Allen, Leslie Anderson, Anthony Rizzo, Bobby Borchering etc) a supply of productive vets available for no talent every year (Adam Laroche, Carlos Pena, Aubrey Huff, Lyle Overbay, Derek Lee, Lance Berkman, Nick Johnson, Jorge Cantu, etc.) and other blocked kids who may be on the market (Lars Anderson, Brett Wallace, maybe Allen) its pretty hard to see why a team would give much for a 1B unless he projects as upper echelon. There are plenty being drafted, converted and available every year. There are a few teams that would probably be interested in obtaining Alonso, but many are teams that have little to offer. Unless you could get Andrew McCutcheon, do the Pirates have anything you'd deal Alonso for? How about the Padres? Alonso would be OK in a package similar to how Rizzo was dealt in the Gonzalez deal, but I just don't see him being special enough to headline a deal for anything all that significant. If the Reds could get a good defending platoon LH bat who can add some pop or lead-off skill for him at a position of need (Matt Joyce is a good target) straight up, it would be a great deal. Otherwise, he'll likely be used to get a guy that the other team is dumping for salary reasons.
    Yonder hits well for power and average in AAA next season his value will soar. I just don't know it's fair to assume he's developed. Just like Mesoraco he's had a viable reason for struggle. Not only that but it's clear he has a way to improve as well, by shortening his swing. I'm not convinced he's not a must have middle of the order bat yet. I have touted dealing him because I am ready to see the Reds compete and so I would take the loss if we got enough of a return or the right return but I still think he can be very good.

    .291/.368/.458 ---- Yonder Alonso minor league numbers
    .295/.365/.448 ----- Adrian Gonzalez minor league numbers

    .296/.355/.470 -----Yonder 1st AAA season Age 23
    .304/.264/.457 -----Adrian 1st (healthy) AAA season Age 22 (PCL)

    .338/.399/.561 -----Adrian's next season at AAA Age 23 (PCL)

    Sure there are plenty of ways to argue against why this is apples to oranges to some extent but the point is a healthy Gonzo at age 23 showed his true power potential. Alonso might very well have done the same had he been healthy but we know why he wasn't. Adrian was viewed the way Yonder is now up until he started mashing balls out of Petco.
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    Re: Project Prospects Top 25 Prospect List

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    Yonder hits well for power and average in AAA next season his value will soar. I just don't know it's fair to assume he's developed. Just like Mesoraco he's had a viable reason for struggle. Not only that but it's clear he has a way to improve as well, by shortening his swing. I'm not convinced he's not a must have middle of the order bat yet. I have touted dealing him because I am ready to see the Reds compete and so I would take the loss if we got enough of a return or the right return but I still think he can be very good.

    .291/.368/.458 ---- Yonder Alonso minor league numbers
    .295/.365/.448 ----- Adrian Gonzalez minor league numbers

    .296/.355/.470 -----Yonder 1st AAA season Age 23
    .304/.264/.457 -----Adrian 1st (healthy) AAA season Age 22 (PCL)

    .338/.399/.561 -----Adrian's next season at AAA Age 23 (PCL)

    Sure there are plenty of ways to argue against why this is apples to oranges to some extent but the point is a healthy Gonzo at age 23 showed his true power potential. Alonso might very well have done the same had he been healthy but we know why he wasn't. Adrian was viewed the way Yonder is now up until he started mashing balls out of Petco.
    Interesting comparison. Because Alonso presumably won't be traded to the Royals or Mets for Greinke or Reyes (neither team has a need at 1B), it seems like we should get to see what he can do for the first few months in AAA. If he begins to tear it up, it should only increase his value heading into the trade deadline, and allow for the Reds to acquire whoever is this year's equivalent of Halladay/Lee at the deadline.

    Unfortunately as I've said on other threads, I just can't imagine a scenario where Alonso is an integral part of the Reds' big league club. Unless the Reds experience a dramatic regression this season, Votto needs to be kept for at least two more seasons, and I can't see them letting Alonso hang around for that long. It would be a tremendous waste of resources.
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    Re: Project Prospects Top 25 Prospect List

    Alonso will have to rake in order to be a top prospect at a position where everyone rakes. It's pretty much that simple.

    So far, he hasn't raked beyond a few games here and there. He's certainly not raked for an entire season, as he needs to.

    Anyone who considers the jury still out on Alonso would be guilty of nothing more than healthy skepticism at this point. His swing (which looks long), his apparent defensive shortcomings, and his lack of power all point to a middling career as a possible 1B starter. His pedigree, limited production in a few ABs over the course of a season, and scouting tools all point to improved numbers with health and patience.

    You say we need patience. Fair enough. But if he doesn't hit this year, whatever trade value he might have had is done completely.

    Keeping him in AAA isn't the sure-fire, easy decision many are assuming, IMO. There are some downsides to that plan.
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    Re: Project Prospects Top 25 Prospect List

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Alonso will have to rake in order to be a top prospect at a position where everyone rakes. It's pretty much that simple.

    So far, he hasn't raked beyond a few games here and there. He's certainly not raked for an entire season, as he needs to.

    Anyone who considers the jury still out on Alonso would be guilty of nothing more than healthy skepticism at this point. His swing (which looks long), his apparent defensive shortcomings, and his lack of power all point to a middling career as a possible 1B starter. His pedigree, limited production in a few ABs over the course of a season, and scouting tools all point to improved numbers with health and patience.

    You say we need patience. Fair enough. But if he doesn't hit this year, whatever trade value he might have had is done completely.

    Keeping him in AAA isn't the sure-fire, easy decision many are assuming, IMO. There are some downsides to that plan.
    I disagree completely. Has he had a full healthy season to rake? Just like Devin Mesoraco people wrote him off because of their own opinions of what is ideal. He showed tremendous power in college and so far hasn't really had the opportunity to do so at the minor league level.

    Now I'm not saying he will but I do believe his odds of doing just that are better than average. Likewise I'm all for dealing him now, knowing the potential risk and all if it means we get a solid or better piece to the puzzle for now and the near future.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

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