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View Poll Results: Given 600+ PA, how much WAR would Janish produce in 2011?

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  • Less than 0 wins (below replacement)

    2 3.23%
  • 0 wins (replacement)

    3 4.84%
  • .5 win

    6 9.68%
  • 1.0 win

    13 20.97%
  • 1.5 wins

    14 22.58%
  • 2.0 wins (major league average)

    20 32.26%
  • more than 2.0 wins

    4 6.45%
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Thread: Projecting Janish

  1. #46
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by remdog View Post
    Pretty good summary from my viewpoint.

    Someone can say that Reyes will decline (at the age of 28) because his game revolves around his legs and thyroid but that doesn't equate to the decline of someone (of the same age) that has never done it in the first place.

    Rem
    He may not decline. Can anyone come up with a scenario where the Mets trade him right now?
    Suck it up cupcake.

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  3. #47
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    yep I think he'll improve. He's at his age prime year(s), he's more of a vet, and batting 2 or 8 (please let it be 8) he should see his numbers go up a bit. I don't see a single SS on the FA market I'd rather have. And now way did the Mets pick up an 11M option on Reyes just to unload him.
    If he OBPs .350, you would have a major issue with him hitting 2?

  4. #48
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    He may not decline.
    Who is 'he'? Reyes or Janish?

    Rem

  5. #49
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    If he OBPs .350, you would have a major issue with him hitting 2?
    I think he can OBP .350. I'm not as convinced he can SLG .400. I like a little more pop at #2

    Quote Originally Posted by remdog View Post
    Who is 'he'? Reyes or Janish?

    Rem
    Reyes.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  6. #50
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    Can anyone come up with a scenario where the Mets trade him right now?
    Can anyone come up with a scenario where Jason Werth signs with the Nats or Cliff Lee turns down an extra $38M to sign with a team that shipped him out of town just a year ago? (famous shrug).

    Things happen and the Mets are under new management that may want to 're-make' the team in a form that doesn't resemble that of the past management. (Once again, famous shrug.)

    Rem

  7. #51
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    Reyes.
    Thanks.

    I think there are possible openings to the Mets trading Reyes given the Mets new management. I also think that it depends upon what direction the new management wants to go and what a trading partner could offer them.

    Rem

  8. #52
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro View Post
    I think there's a lot more compelling evidence that it's an extremely unlikely possibility. Considering his track record in the high minors and in 2009 I think it's pretty safe to assume that last year was an outlier.

    I hope I'm wrong though.
    I was simply responding to the statement that there is "no evidence".

    I way well agree that the better evidence suggests he won't do it, but there is certainly some evidence , however weak, to suggest otherwise.

  9. #53
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by remdog View Post
    Can anyone come up with a scenario where Jason Werth signs with the Nats or Cliff Lee turns down an extra $38M to sign with a team that shipped him out of town just a year ago? (famous shrug).

    Things happen and the Mets are under new management that may want to 're-make' the team in a form that doesn't resemble that of the past management. (Once again, famous shrug.)

    Rem
    If that is the case, why not just let him walk? they won't get near what they will have to give up, and by give up i mean Reyes and a HUGE chunk of cash.

    The only thing that makes any sense to me about picking up his option is they believe he is healthy and ready to go for a team that hasn't made a peep this off season.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  10. #54
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Have no idea how to come up with WAR. But looking at the numbers I'd say what Pedro posted about his minor league numbers feels right to me. I usually expect a drop off of about .20 across the board from the minors to the majors. I also look to see if there is a way for a player to improve upon his talents/skills and with Paul his skills are/were pretty maxed out when he got up to the pros. He has increased his strength and maybe that isn't quite maxed but I doubt it. So bumping that .20 back up for his improved strength (could be more, could be less) he is a .220 - .230 hitter in my estimation. With a little luck he could be adequate in the 8 hole. When the luck isn't there we'll let's just say we might have the pitcher leading off a whole lot of innings. Put him in the #2 hole (Dusty) and that number should decrease.

    Being pessimistic .210/.260/.320 - .580 OPS, Solid but unspectacular defense = less than replacement level???
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

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  11. #55
    GR8NESS WMR's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Where would you rank Janish defensively amongst all starting shortstops in the National League?
    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Calipari is not, nor has he ever been accused or "caught", cheating. He himself turned in one of his players (Camby) for dealing with an agent to get one Final Four overturned. The other is all on the NCAA and Rose. (IF Rose cheated.)
    "Cheering for Kentucky is like watching Star Wars and hoping Darth Vader chokes an ewok"


  12. #56
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Trading a "power arm" like Bailey for the upgrade of Reyes over Janish seems to me unlikely to help us move toward beating a Phillies team that just added a 4th Number 1 pitcher. I'm surprised how little the Cliff Lee signing has altered RZ discussions. To me, it now becomes completely irrelevant for a team like the Reds to consider marginal upgrade trades at positions where we have cheap young players. All the resources spent in such deals are going to have to be harbored to go after the best pitching available and we're going to have to hope, simultaneously, that our very best arms can be developed if we're going to have a rotation even remotely able to go up against the Phillies successfully. It seems possible to me that a Greinke, Bailey, Chapman, Wood lineup might be up to the task by 2012.

  13. #57
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Has anyone else noticed a large improvement in Janish's skills at the plate since we first saw him in the bigs? Or am I the only one. With him being 28 and showing noticeable improvement it doesn't make a ton of sense to use his minor league numbers to try and project his MLB numbers this year. If he went down in AAA he would be a .260-.280 hitter now days.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

  14. #58
    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by Griffey012 View Post
    Has anyone else noticed a large improvement in Janish's skills at the plate since we first saw him in the bigs? Or am I the only one. With him being 28 and showing noticeable improvement it doesn't make a ton of sense to use his minor league numbers to try and project his MLB numbers this year. If he went down in AAA he would be a .260-.280 hitter now days.
    Not really.

    I saw a guy who had a fairly decent 6 week hot streak.

    Everyone looks good when they're on a hot streak.

    And everybody, even Juan Castro, gets hot from time to time.
    Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun

  15. #59
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro View Post
    Not really.

    I saw a guy who had a fairly decent 6 week hot streak.

    Everyone looks good when they're on a hot streak.

    And everybody, even Juan Castro, gets hot from time to time.
    And some guys just look good permanently...

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Calipari is not, nor has he ever been accused or "caught", cheating. He himself turned in one of his players (Camby) for dealing with an agent to get one Final Four overturned. The other is all on the NCAA and Rose. (IF Rose cheated.)
    "Cheering for Kentucky is like watching Star Wars and hoping Darth Vader chokes an ewok"


  16. #60
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro View Post
    Not really.

    I saw a guy who had a fairly decent 6 week hot streak.

    Everyone looks good when they're on a hot streak.

    And everybody, even Juan Castro, gets hot from time to time.
    In '08 and '09 he wasnt even capable of getting on a "hot streak."

    Those 6 weeks of the season were also during the 2 months where he was getting regular playing time, instead of 5 at bats a week.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.


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