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View Poll Results: Given 600+ PA, how much WAR would Janish produce in 2011?

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  • Less than 0 wins (below replacement)

    2 3.23%
  • 0 wins (replacement)

    3 4.84%
  • .5 win

    6 9.68%
  • 1.0 win

    13 20.97%
  • 1.5 wins

    14 22.58%
  • 2.0 wins (major league average)

    20 32.26%
  • more than 2.0 wins

    4 6.45%
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Thread: Projecting Janish

  1. #91
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    His game is his glove.

    If he hits .235 with that sort of pop and BB rate he'll be sitting.

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  3. #92
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Janish is playing some excellent defense. Definitely an upgrade over what we had last season.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  4. #93
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Janish is playing some excellent defense. Definitely an upgrade over what we had last season.
    But if he hits more like pre-2010 than 2010, is that enough?

  5. #94
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    So Paul's pre-2010 OPS called. He wants everyone to know that he is back. Just kidding...kind of.

    Currently sitting at a .313/.327/.333 line with a raging .366 BABIP. 3 for his last 22 after collecting 12 hits in his first 6 games. 1 XBH in 48 ABs with 1 every 12 and 13 ABs in 2009 and 2010, respectively.

    Added to that, IMO, is that he hasn't looked that great at the plate. Doesn't seem like he has just been running into some bad luck.

    Thoughts on Paul? Is it a SSS? Was last year's jump into respectibility a mirage? Somewhere in the middle? What are your thoughts?
    Well, ignoring that stats this early are pretty meaningless, he actually is hitting much better than he did pre-2010. His low OBP is due to the fact that he only has one walk.

    Unless he and Gomes had a Freaky Friday incident where their batting eyes switched places, it's likely that his 2% walk rate will improve to his career 9%. If that happened, his OPS would be .741. Adjust his BABIP to his career average, and his OPS would be .700.

    I think it's hard to say he has looked bad at the plate when he's hitting .313, with a .366 BABIP and a 25% LD rate. If anything, he has looked much better at the plate than expected, imo.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  6. #95
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Pitches Seen 186
    Taken 97
    Swung At 89
    Missed 11
    In play 44
    Fouled 34

    When you foul off almost as many as you put in play then you're not hitting well.

  7. #96
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Well, ignoring that stats this early are pretty meaningless, he actually is hitting much better than he did pre-2010. His low OBP is due to the fact that he only has one walk.

    Unless he and Gomes had a Freaky Friday incident where their batting eyes switched places, it's likely that his 2% walk rate will improve to his career 9%. If that happened, his OPS would be .741. Adjust his BABIP to his career average, and his OPS would be .700.

    I think it's hard to say he has looked bad at the plate when he's hitting .313, with a .366 BABIP and a 25% LD rate. If anything, he has looked much better at the plate than expected, imo.
    I just see a lot of weakly hit balls. Nothing driven.

  8. #97
    Charlie Brown All-Star IslandRed's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Well, ignoring that stats this early are pretty meaningless, he actually is hitting much better than he did pre-2010. His low OBP is due to the fact that he only has one walk.

    Unless he and Gomes had a Freaky Friday incident where their batting eyes switched places, it's likely that his 2% walk rate will improve to his career 9%. If that happened, his OPS would be .741. Adjust his BABIP to his career average, and his OPS would be .700.

    I think it's hard to say he has looked bad at the plate when he's hitting .313, with a .366 BABIP and a 25% LD rate. If anything, he has looked much better at the plate than expected, imo.
    The walk rate will go up... but. Unless he starts putting some more charge in the ball, he won't be drawing many free passes that aren't of the OBP-propping-but-relatively-empty "bases empty, two outs, pitcher up next, no sense giving you something to hit" variety.
    For those who believe, no proof is necessary. For those who don't believe, no proof is possible

  9. #98
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    In the FWIW department, Fangraphs has him at 0.5 WAR to date (BP at 0.4). Obviously the sample sizes mean the numbers tell us basically nothing in terms of prediction. However, if he were to merely keep this up, we're looking at an above average player.

    Great defending SS who can merely hit at a replacement level are harder to find than might imagine.

    That said, he's certainly not doing anything to hold off Cozart, should he show well in AAA.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  10. #99
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    In the FWIW department, Fangraphs has him at 0.5 WAR to date (BP at 0.4). Obviously the sample sizes mean the numbers tell us basically nothing in terms of prediction. However, if he were to merely keep this up, we're looking at an above average player.
    That's based upon a UZR that equates to a UZR/150=50. In other words, sample sizes mean the numbers tell us basically nothing in terms of anything.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  11. #100
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    In the FWIW department, Fangraphs has him at 0.5 WAR to date (BP at 0.4). Obviously the sample sizes mean the numbers tell us basically nothing in terms of prediction. However, if he were to merely keep this up, we're looking at an above average player.

    Great defending SS who can merely hit at a replacement level are harder to find than might imagine.

    That said, he's certainly not doing anything to hold off Cozart, should he show well in AAA.
    That's called playing games with the numbers.

  12. #101
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    That's based upon a UZR that equates to a UZR/150=50. In other words, sample sizes mean the numbers tell us basically nothing in terms of anything.
    I believe the term is reductio ad absurdem or something like that. Yes, the numbers are meaningless.

    The offensive numbers are just marginally more predictive than the defensive ones. What's happened so far this year is just more 50 PA on top of what we already knew.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  13. #102
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    A month since the last bump, Paul has gone from .313/.327/.333 to .238/.273/.287, eclipsing the worst fears (to this point) of most on here. Does Walt need to make a move to upgrade, especially since Edgar hasn't been lighting the world on fire either? Is Janish's glove enough to carry a .560 OPS, which is trending downward with a bullet?

    Thoughts?

  14. #103
    getting younger alloverjr's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    A month since the last bump, Paul has gone from .313/.327/.333 to .238/.273/.287, eclipsing the worst fears (to this point) of most on here. Does Walt need to make a move to upgrade, especially since Edgar hasn't been lighting the world on fire either? Is Janish's glove enough to carry a .560 OPS, which is trending downward with a bullet?

    Thoughts?
    I don't think the org has the desire to part with the prospects it would take to significantly upgrade the SS position. While Janish has been bad the team could probably live with him in the 8th spot if the hole in LF is addressed. Similarly, I think they could live with a replacement level LF if SS was upgraded. Both would be awesome but I think 1 has to be changed and I think LF is the most low cost alternative right now.
    This place use to be fun

  15. #104
    Member VR's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    A month since the last bump, Paul has gone from .313/.327/.333 to .238/.273/.287, eclipsing the worst fears (to this point) of most on here. Does Walt need to make a move to upgrade, especially since Edgar hasn't been lighting the world on fire either? Is Janish's glove enough to carry a .560 OPS, which is trending downward with a bullet?

    Thoughts?
    His injury set him back, but batting him 2nd is a major disservice to the team, and Paul. Just pathetic. Bat him 8th where he doesn't have the pressure to produce....and can plunk away and gain confidence.
    Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand

  16. #105
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    A month since the last bump, Paul has gone from .313/.327/.333 to .238/.273/.287, eclipsing the worst fears (to this point) of most on here. Does Walt need to make a move to upgrade, especially since Edgar hasn't been lighting the world on fire either? Is Janish's glove enough to carry a .560 OPS, which is trending downward with a bullet?

    Thoughts?
    Here's my thought: he needs to do .675 to be carried as the starter.


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