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View Poll Results: Given 600+ PA, how much WAR would Janish produce in 2011?

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  • Less than 0 wins (below replacement)

    2 3.23%
  • 0 wins (replacement)

    3 4.84%
  • .5 win

    6 9.68%
  • 1.0 win

    13 20.97%
  • 1.5 wins

    14 22.58%
  • 2.0 wins (major league average)

    20 32.26%
  • more than 2.0 wins

    4 6.45%
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Thread: Projecting Janish

  1. #1
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Projecting Janish

    There has been some spirited debate in the Jose Reyes thread about how much production we should expect from Janish given the full-time gig. My position is possibly the most optimistic of anybody's I've seen. But I'm curious just how out of line I am with the RedsZone consensus.

    So, given the full-time job and assuming he keeps it (140+ games, 600+ PA), what level of production should we expect from Janish. No explanation is needed, but certainly feel free...
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  3. #2
    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    .235/.305/.340
    Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun

  4. #3
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    .250 .350 .390 .740

    And he'll get many presents from his pitching staff.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  5. #4
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro View Post
    .235/.305/.340
    I'm in that neighborhood too.

  6. #5
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    I actually voted more than 2 wins, I have not been the biggest Janish supporter, but I have definitely seen the strides he has made offensively. When he came up in '08 he was awful offensively, in '09 he was bad but improved from '08. Last year he had made some clear strides in his overall strength and had a nice improvement offensively.

    If he plays 130 games, I would expect about a .250/.325/.375. Somewhere around 8-10 HR's and great defense. I am thinking he will finish around 2.5 WAR.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

  7. #6
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    1.5 WAR.

    He struggles mightily with the bat, while his glove is solidly above average, but not elite. As a #8 hitter, he's below average. As a SS, he's below average.

    But, hey, he's cheap.
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  8. #7
    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    .250 .350 .390 .740

    And he'll get many presents from his pitching staff.
    I have a real hard time accepting even the remote possibility that Janish could have an OBP of .350. I just don't see any evidence in his statistical history that would lead anyone to believe that's a possibility.

    I'd love for him to prove me wrong though.
    Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun

  9. #8
    Two-Time Batting Champ Edd Roush's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    I think he will go 260/330/350

  10. #9
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    1.5 WAR.

    He struggles mightily with the bat, while his glove is solidly above average, but not elite. As a #8 hitter, he's below average. As a SS, he's below average.

    But, hey, he's cheap.
    That pretty much sums it up for me too. Although, I have to admit, I think his glove is just marginly above average. If he played for the Cardinals he'd be batting ninth. If he had played for the Cardinals in 2010 he'd be on the same bus to Seattle as Brendan Ryan.

    Rem

  11. #10
    Greatness In The Making RedLegSuperStar's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    I'm in that neighborhood too.
    Ditto.. Maybe slightly higher average. His D is what the Reds are in love with. I don't think they care about his offense. I do on the other hand. When Stubbs was near the mandoza line.. I thought Heisey should of gotten some starts. I think this club could potentially put together a package for a Jose Reyes. I think you solve issues at lead off and at SS.

    I would propose:

    CoCo Cordero, Homer Bailey, Logan Ondrusek, Zack Cozart & Todd Frazier to the Mets
    Jose Reyes, Oliver Perez, & Cash to the Reds

    Masset or Chapman become Closer
    Reyes Leadsoff and is your starting SS
    Perez is Long Relief or Situational

    Mets get a Closer and a Set-up man
    Bailey gives them a power arm to the rotation
    Mets also get a young group up the middle with Cozart and Frazier
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  12. #11
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Everytime I see Janish on the field I get flashbacks of Darrel Chaney and Woody Woodward.

    Rem

  13. #12
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    .242, .288, .333

  14. #13
    Puffy's Daddy Red Leader's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by RedLegSuperStar View Post
    Ditto.. Maybe slightly higher average. His D is what the Reds are in love with. I don't think they care about his offense. I do on the other hand. When Stubbs was near the mandoza line.. I thought Heisey should of gotten some starts. I think this club could potentially put together a package for a Jose Reyes. I think you solve issues at lead off and at SS.

    I would propose:

    CoCo Cordero, Homer Bailey, Logan Ondrusek, Zack Cozart & Todd Frazier to the Mets
    Jose Reyes, Oliver Perez, & Cash to the Reds

    Masset or Chapman become Closer
    Reyes Leadsoff and is your starting SS
    Perez is Long Relief or Situational

    Mets get a Closer and a Set-up man
    Bailey gives them a power arm to the rotation
    Mets also get a young group up the middle with Cozart and Frazier
    We better be getting a payroll's worth of cash back from the Mets.
    Reyes is making $11M in 2011. Perez is due $12M in 2011. They are both set to become free agents after the 2011 season. And you're willing to give up young, cheap players like Bailey, Ondrusek, Cozart, and Frazier for that? No thanks.
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    Your Mom is happy.

  15. #14
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro View Post
    I have a real hard time accepting even the remote possibility that Janish could have an OBP of .350. I just don't see any evidence in his statistical history that would lead anyone to believe that's a possibility.

    I'd love for him to prove me wrong though.
    His minor league career OBP was .351. He put up a .338 OBP last year. I would call that "statistical evidence that it's a possibility". Not a likelihood by any stretch, but certainly in the realm of possibility.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  16. #15
    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    His minor league career OBP was .351. He put up a .338 OBP last year. I would call that "statistical evidence that it's a possibility". Not a likelihood by any stretch, but certainly in the realm of possibility.
    It was also .306 in AAA and is at .308 for his major league career.

    Not all evidence is created equal. Just because I guy is able to draw some walks and get some isolated plate discipline against inferior pitching doesn't mean that will translate against the big boys.
    Last edited by pedro; 12-17-2010 at 12:37 PM.
    Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun


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