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View Poll Results: Given 600+ PA, how much WAR would Janish produce in 2011?

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  • Less than 0 wins (below replacement)

    2 3.23%
  • 0 wins (replacement)

    3 4.84%
  • .5 win

    6 9.68%
  • 1.0 win

    13 20.97%
  • 1.5 wins

    14 22.58%
  • 2.0 wins (major league average)

    20 32.26%
  • more than 2.0 wins

    4 6.45%
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Thread: Projecting Janish

  1. #31
    Puffy's Daddy Red Leader's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    I don't think he's good enough to be a starter, I don't think his glove is elite and I don't think he has the stick for 400 PA's much alone 600PA's.
    You know, I completely agree with both statements that you made. I'm just not sure that there is a better option at this point.

    Trading for someone better is going to cost the Reds a LOT in terms of prospects this offseason. The FA market for SS's is barren and I don't see an answer there either.

    My best guess is that 1) They end up re-signing Cabrera after he tests the market, doesn't generate much interest and then is willing to sign a 1 yr deal, or 2) They don't re-sign Cabrera, go into Spring Training with Janish and end up trying to make a move in-season or closer to the deadline.
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  3. #32
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Yep.

    Yippee!!

    Still not impressed though.
    I don't think anybody is getting worked up over mediocrity. But recognizing the difference between only mediocre and true replacement level is pretty important -- and one of the reasons this franchise struggled to put together winning squads.

    If you pay like you're getting a 4 win bump but you only are getting a 2 win bump, you can run through your budget pretty quickly.

    I agree with you that he's a less than ideal short term solution, not a long term solution and that the Reds should be looking for an upgrade (at the right price). I just don't think trading for Reyes is the right move unless it's a swap for Cordero and pocket change.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 12-17-2010 at 02:47 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  4. #33
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    At 28, if that's the best he has to offer, we should be getting his best for the next few years, right?
    No, Jose Reyes is the same age and he's in terminal decline.
    The widow is gathering nettles for her children's dinner; a perfumed seigneur, delicately lounging in the Oeil de Boeuf, hath an alchemy whereby he will extract the third nettle and call it rent. ~ Carlyle

  5. #34
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro View Post
    It's not abnormally low if it's in line with what he did in the minors.

    I also think his defense is a little overrated here on RZ. He's no Adam Everett.
    Well then they were abnormally low, because his minor league numbers project to a higher than sub .600 OPS.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  6. #35
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo View Post
    No, Jose Reyes is the same age and he's in terminal decline.
    Odd how that works out eh?

  7. #36
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo View Post
    No, Jose Reyes is the same age and he's in terminal decline.
    Well, I've never suggested that -- but there probably is a bit more to worry about with the guy whose best skill is speed and who has had 2 serious leg injuries and a thyroid issue in the last 18 months.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  8. #37
    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    Well then they were abnormally low, because his minor league numbers project to a higher than sub .600 OPS.
    not really. In almost 1000 ab's in AA and AAA his OPS was around .670.

    in fact, plugging his AAA numbers into this calculator

    http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/mlecalc.html

    gives you this equivalency .208/.253/.304

    even if you throw out his 2007 and only include his 2008 AAA stats his projected line is .218/.265/.326

    Now even I think he'll outperform that, but not by much.
    Last edited by pedro; 12-17-2010 at 03:32 PM.
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  9. #38
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro View Post
    actually yes, TRF for one.
    yep I think he'll improve. He's at his age prime year(s), he's more of a vet, and batting 2 or 8 (please let it be 8) he should see his numbers go up a bit. I don't see a single SS on the FA market I'd rather have. And now way did the Mets pick up an 11M option on Reyes just to unload him.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  10. #39
    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    yep I think he'll improve. He's at his age prime year(s), he's more of a vet, and batting 2 or 8 (please let it be 8) he should see his numbers go up a bit. I don't see a single SS on the FA market I'd rather have. And now way did the Mets pick up an 11M option on Reyes just to unload him.
    Unfortunately I don't really see any better options either.

    I'm hoping Cozart knocks the door down by mid season.
    Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun

  11. #40
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro View Post
    Unfortunately I don't really see any better options either.

    I'm hoping Cozart knocks the door down by mid season.
    Honesty, me too.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  12. #41
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro View Post
    .235/.305/.340
    That's about what I was going to say.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

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  13. #42
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro View Post
    I have a real hard time accepting even the remote possibility that Janish could have an OBP of .350. I just don't see any evidence in his statistical history that would lead anyone to believe that's a possibility.

    I'd love for him to prove me wrong though.
    How about the fact that he's done it before in the minors, and came very close last year in the majors, as "some" evidence of a statistical history.

    I accept anyone's view that he won't do it, but do take exception when you say there is no evidence.

  14. #43
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    How about the fact that he's done it before in the minors, and came very close last year in the majors, as "some" evidence of a statistical history.

    I accept anyone's view that he won't do it, but do take exception when you say there is no evidence.
    Well, do echo what is always trotted out... small sample size in MLB and hasn't touched it above AA in the minors.

  15. #44
    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    How about the fact that he's done it before in the minors, and came very close last year in the majors, as "some" evidence of a statistical history.

    I accept anyone's view that he won't do it, but do take exception when you say there is no evidence.
    I think there's a lot more compelling evidence that it's an extremely unlikely possibility. Considering his track record in the high minors and in 2009 I think it's pretty safe to assume that last year was an outlier.

    I hope I'm wrong though.
    Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun

  16. #45
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    I don't think he's good enough to be a starter, I don't think his glove is elite and I don't think he has the stick for 400 PA's much alone 600PA's.


    Pretty good summary from my viewpoint.

    Someone can say that Reyes will decline (at the age of 28) because his game revolves around his legs and thyroid but that doesn't equate to the decline of someone (of the same age) that has never done it in the first place.

    Rem


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