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View Poll Results: Given 600+ PA, how much WAR would Janish produce in 2011?

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  • Less than 0 wins (below replacement)

    2 3.23%
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    3 4.84%
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    6 9.68%
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    13 20.97%
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    14 22.58%
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    20 32.26%
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Thread: Projecting Janish

  1. #61
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro View Post
    Not really.

    I saw a guy who had a fairly decent 6 week hot streak.

    Everyone looks good when they're on a hot streak.

    And everybody, even Juan Castro, gets hot from time to time.
    That 6 week hot streak lasted 4 months. Janish had over an .800 OPS in Augest. Granted he wasn't playing everyday during it, but that makes it even more impressive, and less likely to be a "streak" and instead an actual change in skill level.

    And Juan Castro never had a hitting streak with an OPS over .800 that lasted 100 AB. He never had one that lasted more than 8.
    Last edited by TheNext44; 12-17-2010 at 07:37 PM.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

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  3. #62
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    That 6 week hot streak lasted 4 months. Janish had over an .800 OPS in Augest. Granted he wasn't playing everyday during it, but that makes it even more impressive, and less likely to be a "streak" and instead an actual change in skill level.
    101 ab's in august

    .261/.340/.375/.715

    Not over .800

    Hot streaks?

    See Dan Gladdens 1984 and 1987, or Chris Stynes 1997 or 2000 season.

    they are what they are, "hot streaks" for middling players.

  4. #63
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    In 1200 defensive innings (roughly a full season or the equivalent of 600 PAs worth of playing time), UZR rates Janish as a +10 glove while Dewan's thinks he's a +8 defender. Considering what Janish's potential value might be over a full season, for the purposes of calculating WAR, he starts out with 7.5 runs for playing shortstop and +20 runs for the difference between average (baseline) and replacement level over 600 PAs. So accepting the rough estimate of his defensive value, he'd be a 3.75 WAR (7.5+10+20) player before considering his bat. That means in order for him to be a 2 WAR player over a full season, he'd have to be no worse than a -17.5 run bat (wOBA=.295; something like .240/.320/.350).

    It's possible that Janish could be a 1.5 to 2 WAR player over the course of a full season provided he could play a full season.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  5. #64
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    101 ab's in august

    .261/.340/.375/.715

    Not over .800

    Hot streaks?

    See Dan Gladdens 1984 and 1987, or Chris Stynes 1997 or 2000 season.

    they are what they are, "hot streaks" for middling players.
    Not every team gets an all star at every position. Defensively he's very good. Can he hold up over a full season? Well, I sure hope so, because there ain't much out there on the market.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  6. #65
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    101 ab's in august

    .261/.340/.375/.715

    Not over .800

    Hot streaks?

    See Dan Gladdens 1984 and 1987, or Chris Stynes 1997 or 2000 season.

    they are what they are, "hot streaks" for middling players.
    Sorry, I meant through Augest.

    On Augest 19th, Janish's season OPS was .815.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  7. #66
    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    Sorry, I meant through Augest.

    On Augest 19th, Janish's season OPS was .815.
    That's because he had a hot streak in july and up to then he hadn't had many AB's.

    Here are his monthly splits for the year. When I look at these in context to his career stats I just don't see a changed hitter..

    Code:
    By Day/Month	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
    April	     17        	2	6	3	0	1	5	2	0	0	0	0	.353	.421	.706	1.127
    May	     15         1	3	0	0	0	1	4	0	2	0	1	.200	.368	.200	.568
    June	     12        	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	4	0	0	.083	.214	.083	.297
    July	    19         	4	7	0	0	1	3	2	0	4	0	1	.368	.429	.526	.955
    August	    88         	9	23	4	0	2	11	11	0	11	1	1	.261	.340	.375	.715
    September	 43	6	11	3	0	1	4	2	1	8	0	0	.256	.304	.395	.699
    Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun

  8. #67
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    If that is the case, why not just let him walk? they won't get near what they will have to give up, and by give up i mean Reyes and a HUGE chunk of cash.

    The only thing that makes any sense to me about picking up his option is they believe he is healthy and ready to go for a team that hasn't made a peep this off season.
    I haven't followed the Mets/Reyes closely. Was it a team option? Player option? Mutual option. Honestly, I don't know.

    Perhaps, if it was team option,the Mets view him as a valuable trading chip. If they can't trade him, they may be prepared to live with it. (famous shrug)

    Maybe they think that if they can get a couple of pitchers to fill out their roster (Leake, Wood, Baily, Cordero?) plus a SS (Janish, Cozart) it's worth the trade even if they have to throw some money into the pot. Frankly, I don't know but I (nor almost anyone else) ever thought Lee would sign with Philly.

    Rem

  9. #68
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by remdog View Post
    I haven't followed the Mets/Reyes closely. Was it a team option? Player option? Mutual option. Honestly, I don't know.

    Perhaps, if it was team option,the Mets view him as a valuable trading chip. If they can't trade him, they may be prepared to live with it. (famous shrug)

    Maybe they think that if they can get a couple of pitchers to fill out their roster (Leake, Wood, Baily, Cordero?) plus a SS (Janish, Cozart) it's worth the trade even if they have to throw some money into the pot. Frankly, I don't know but I (nor almost anyone else) ever thought Lee would sign with Philly.

    Rem
    Team option. from a business standpoint, picking up his option to trade him makes zero sense. From a baseball standpoint, picking up his option to trade him makes zero sense.

    The only thing that does make sense is keeping him, because there are maybe 3-4 teams that can take that contract even for one year. And those teams have SS's.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  10. #69
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    Sorry, I meant through Augest.

    On Augest 19th, Janish's season OPS was .815.
    That's a misleading demarcation. During the first two weeks of August he posted a slash line of .326/.392/.500 over a span of 52 PA's. During the rest of the season (177 PA's), he posted a slash line of .240/.316/.351.

    That OPS was inflated due to his uncharacteristic streak during his previous two weeks-a sample size that was roughly equal to his playing time during April through July.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  11. #70
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro View Post
    That's because he had a hot streak in july and up to then he hadn't had many AB's.

    Here are his monthly splits for the year. When I look at these in context to his career stats I just don't see a changed hitter..

    Code:
    By Day/Month	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
    April	     17        	2	6	3	0	1	5	2	0	0	0	0	.353	.421	.706	1.127
    May	     15         1	3	0	0	0	1	4	0	2	0	1	.200	.368	.200	.568
    June	     12        	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	4	0	0	.083	.214	.083	.297
    July	    19         	4	7	0	0	1	3	2	0	4	0	1	.368	.429	.526	.955
    August	    88         	9	23	4	0	2	11	11	0	11	1	1	.261	.340	.375	.715
    September	 43	6	11	3	0	1	4	2	1	8	0	0	.256	.304	.395	.699
    Monthly splis are random and really don't tell me much.

    But this tells me something:

    From Aug 22, 2009 to Aug 19, 2010, Janish put up these numbers...

    .344/.397/.741 over 294 PA's.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  12. #71
    Charlie Brown All-Star IslandRed's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    When it comes right down to it, I think he could put up an acceptable-with-a-shrug OBP in the #8 spot in the order, but not at #2 as mentioned earlier in the thread. Any National League 8-hole hitter has OBP-padding walks available in certain situations, and taking them has some value. It beats hacking away and leaving the pitcher to bat first next inning, after all. Janish has the patience and eye to work those situations to the team's benefit. But in the second spot? Joey Votto's on deck. Pitchers don't want extra runners on base when Joey Votto comes to the plate. Janish doesn't inspire fear, so pitchers would be coming right at him, and I don't think that plays into his strength.
    Not all who wander are lost

  13. #72
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    Monthly splis are random and really don't tell me much.

    But this tells me something:

    From Aug 22, 2009 to Aug 19, 2010, Janish put up these numbers...

    .344/.397/.741 over 294 PA's.
    First by my calculation over that span (Aug 22, 2009 to Aug 19, 2010), Janish posted a slash line of .248/.326/.391 in 288 PA's. But inexplicably that arbitrary split contained the 50+PA's from his two week 2010 August out of body stretch (slash line of .326/.392/.500 over a span of 52 PA's) and completely ignores his final 95 PAs of 2010 in which he posted a slash line of .218/.284/.310. If the actual goal of discussing Janish in the context of this thread is to estimate his true skill level as reasonably as possible, arbitrary splits like above should be avoided in favor of all of the data.

    For instance, adding in those post Aug 19th, 2010 PAs causes his slash line to become: .241/.316/.371.
    Last edited by jojo; 12-17-2010 at 08:52 PM.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  14. #73
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    First by my calculation over that span (Aug 22, 2009 to Aug 19, 2010), Janish posted a slash line of .248/.326/.391 in 288 PA's. But inexplicably that arbitrary split contained the 50+PA's from his two week 2010 August out of body stretch (slash line of .326/.392/.500 over a span of 52 PA's) and completely ignores his final 95 PAs of 2010 in which he posted a slash line of .218/.284/.310. If the actual goal of discussing Janish in the context of this thread is to estimate his true skill level as reasonably as possible, arbitrary splits like above should be avoided in favor of all of the data.
    You're right. To get the best idea of Janish's current skill level we should include up to the end of the year. And I'm pretty bad at math, sorry for the wrong numbers.

    BUt I have a feeling that if you did the math, it would reveal that since the end of Aug 2009 to the end of the 2010 season, Janish OPS'd around .700, which is what I would expect him to hit in 2011 if he were to start. Teamed with his defense, that would make him at least a league average SS.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  15. #74
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    You're right. To get the best idea of Janish's current skill level we should include up to the end of the year. And I'm pretty bad at math, sorry for the wrong numbers.

    BUt I have a feeling that if you did the math, it would reveal that since the end of Aug 2009 to the end of the 2010 season, Janish OPS'd around .700, which is what I would expect him to hit in 2011 if he were to start. Teamed with his defense, that would make him at least a league average SS.
    If I did the math correctly, he had 441 PAs over that stretch (Aug 2009 through Oct 2010) with a slash line of .251/.324/.359 OPS=.683.

    If he did that over a full season, he'd be something like a league average player assuming his defense was worth +10 runs. Keep in mind that +10 would make him a top 5 defensive shortstop on any given year in the majors.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  16. #75
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    That's a misleading demarcation. During the first two weeks of August he posted a slash line of .326/.392/.500 over a span of 52 PA's. During the rest of the season (177 PA's), he posted a slash line of .240/.316/.351.

    That OPS was inflated due to his uncharacteristic streak during his previous two weeks-a sample size that was roughly equal to his playing time during April through July.
    Players are allowed hot steaks.

    Have you subtracted his cold steaks?

    It's why you look at the whole season's stats for a clearer picture.


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