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View Poll Results: Given 600+ PA, how much WAR would Janish produce in 2011?

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  • Less than 0 wins (below replacement)

    2 3.23%
  • 0 wins (replacement)

    3 4.84%
  • .5 win

    6 9.68%
  • 1.0 win

    13 20.97%
  • 1.5 wins

    14 22.58%
  • 2.0 wins (major league average)

    20 32.26%
  • more than 2.0 wins

    4 6.45%
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Thread: Projecting Janish

  1. #76
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Players are allowed hot steaks.

    Have you subtracted his cold steaks?

    It's why you look at the whole season's stats for a clearer picture.
    Actually, you look at his whole career.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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  3. #77
    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    Monthly splis are random and really don't tell me much.

    But this tells me something:

    From Aug 22, 2009 to Aug 19, 2010, Janish put up these numbers...

    .344/.397/.741 over 294 PA's.
    all because of about 100 good ab's during a single hot streak.
    Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun

  4. #78
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro View Post
    all because of about 100 good ab's during a single hot streak.
    Again, hot streaks count. As do cold streaks.

  5. #79
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    .215/.275/.325/.600 - if all goes well.

    He's a nice solid defender (like a SS is supposed to be to meet the minimum standards), but he's not the defensive stalwart he seems to have the rep for. Most teams have a guy in the minor leagues who can play similar defense while being a liability on offense. Because of that I consider him a replacement level performer who could be had for little cost or replaced by a journeyman from AAA w/o much loss of production (the recent deal of Brendan Ryan for a minor league suspect is exhibit A as far as cost to acquire some one of Janish ilk goes). Not sure how the voo doo in the numbers gets you to 2 wins, but for me, he's replacement level.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  6. #80
    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Again, hot streaks count. As do cold streaks.
    Indeed. As I think you'll find out if Janish gets 600 ab's this year.
    Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun

  7. #81
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by Griffey012 View Post
    Has anyone else noticed a large improvement in Janish's skills at the plate since we first saw him in the bigs? Or am I the only one. With him being 28 and showing noticeable improvement it doesn't make a ton of sense to use his minor league numbers to try and project his MLB numbers this year. If he went down in AAA he would be a .260-.280 hitter now days.
    Not at all, his skills have always been quite good. Solid contact guy who has pretty solid discipline, good approach & mechanics. Maybe one could make an argument for his swing being a bit loopy/long but not too bad. Could be a smidge more selective perhaps but tough to really gauge that at times, could just be the pitching in certain instances. His wrist strengthening program helped him a smidge 2 years in a row but beyond that (and that is increasing his talent base) I've seen nothing.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

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  8. #82
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    Not at all, his skills have always been quite good. Solid contact guy who has pretty solid discipline, good approach & mechanics. Maybe one could make an argument for his swing being a bit loopy/long but not too bad. Could be a smidge more selective perhaps but tough to really gauge that at times, could just be the pitching in certain instances. His wrist strengthening program helped him a smidge 2 years in a row but beyond that (and that is increasing his talent base) I've seen nothing.
    Actually, he walk rate has gone up and his K rate has gone down each year his been in the majors. BB rate from 7.9 to 9.6 and K rate from 22.3 to 15.0.

    But besides that, I've seen a huge change in his approach. He was a steady up the middle, opposite field slap hitter. Around the end of 2009 it looked like he started to pull the ball just a bit more, and then last season he looked like he was pulling the ball a lot more. I would love see the data on that if anyone can find it.

    He still didn't seem to have the bat speed to get around good fastballs in tight, but he did seem more aggressive and confident at the plate. At least that's what I saw.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  9. #83
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    Actually, he walk rate has gone up and his K rate has gone down each year his been in the majors. BB rate from 7.9 to 9.6 and K rate from 22.3 to 15.0.

    But besides that, I've seen a huge change in his approach. He was a steady up the middle, opposite field slap hitter. Around the end of 2009 it looked like he started to pull the ball just a bit more, and then last season he looked like he was pulling the ball a lot more. I would love see the data on that if anyone can find it.

    He still didn't seem to have the bat speed to get around good fastballs in tight, but he did seem more aggressive and confident at the plate. At least that's what I saw.
    Thanks for doing the analysis I was too lazy too look up. I couldn't have explained it better.

    I know last season when he was on his "hot streak" he was pulling a lot of balls down the left field line for doubles. His hands have gotten quicker, allowing him to capitalize on mediocre pitching. His is always going to be overmatched by good pitching, but if he can hit decently against the rest of the pitchers he should be alright.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

  10. #84
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    Actually, he walk rate has gone up and his K rate has gone down each year his been in the majors. BB rate from 7.9 to 9.6 and K rate from 22.3 to 15.0.

    But besides that, I've seen a huge change in his approach. He was a steady up the middle, opposite field slap hitter. Around the end of 2009 it looked like he started to pull the ball just a bit more, and then last season he looked like he was pulling the ball a lot more. I would love see the data on that if anyone can find it.

    He still didn't seem to have the bat speed to get around good fastballs in tight, but he did seem more aggressive and confident at the plate. At least that's what I saw.
    Well I guess I see any movement in K or BB rate as a natural progression for a guy with the requisite skills. Just having more experience IMO changes that for him.

    As far as his approach I'm not sure that isn't a by product of his strengthening program and again experience. The original question had to do with an improvement in skills, so maybe I'm just being a bit nit picky but to me there is a big difference between skills and talent. And I haven't seen anything different in the skill area.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

    --Woody Hayes

  11. #85
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    Well I guess I see any movement in K or BB rate as a natural progression for a guy with the requisite skills. Just having more experience IMO changes that for him.

    As far as his approach I'm not sure that isn't a by product of his strengthening program and again experience. The original question had to do with an improvement in skills, so maybe I'm just being a bit nit picky but to me there is a big difference between skills and talent. And I haven't seen anything different in the skill area.
    You are right, his skills have stayed the same for the most part. But I think he has become a different type of hitter. I'm not sure he'll be a better hitter giong forward, we have to see how pitchers adjusst to him and how he adjusts to them.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  12. #86
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    Well I guess I see any movement in K or BB rate as a natural progression for a guy with the requisite skills. Just having more experience IMO changes that for him.

    As far as his approach I'm not sure that isn't a by product of his strengthening program and again experience. The original question had to do with an improvement in skills, so maybe I'm just being a bit nit picky but to me there is a big difference between skills and talent. And I haven't seen anything different in the skill area.
    I guess I should not have used the word skills, simply put I meant Janish has become a player that can produce much better results at the plate than he was able to when he first hit the big leagues.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

  13. #87
    Be the ball Roy Tucker's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    I'd like to see the Reds re-sign Cabrera and then have Janish and Cabrera swap roles from last year. Give Janish a couple months are starting SS at the start of the season when all teams are still giving it their all and see what he can do.

    If he hangs around .650 OPS, I'll be happy. If not, Cabrera can probably do that with the stick but less range defensively.

    Island Red made a good point about batting him #8. He'll adequately fill a slot there with a few gimme BBs to pump up his OBP. If you bat him #2, he'll get exposed like all get-out and sink like a battleship.

    I'd like to be more optimistic about Janish but I don't think he has the minor league stats to back up that optimism. He's had a hot streak or 2 which is good, but I wouldn't want to bet my house payment on it.

    Pay attention to the open sky

  14. #88
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by Roy Tucker View Post
    I'd like to see the Reds re-sign Cabrera and then have Janish and Cabrera swap roles from last year. Give Janish a couple months are starting SS at the start of the season when all teams are still giving it their all and see what he can do.

    If he hangs around .650 OPS, I'll be happy. If not, Cabrera can probably do that with the stick but less range defensively.

    Island Red made a good point about batting him #8. He'll adequately fill a slot there with a few gimme BBs to pump up his OBP. If you bat him #2, he'll get exposed like all get-out and sink like a battleship.

    I'd like to be more optimistic about Janish but I don't think he has the minor league stats to back up that optimism. He's had a hot streak or 2 which is good, but I wouldn't want to bet my house payment on it.
    I like your theory on Janish and Cabrera, but I'd rather bring in Renteria instead of OC back. Renteria offers a more offensively, both are pretty pedestrian on defense. Plus Renteria is coming off some injuries this past season, so I doubt he is expecting to be a full time starter, I believe OC still wants to be and sees himself as a starter.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

  15. #89
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    I am not at all confident in Janish as the starting SS for the Reds. I think his D is a little bit over rated and am not sold on his offense one bit. He did better this year that I thought he would, but I think that may change when he plays more and pitchers get a better read on him.

    If the Reds get a better option for LF or some minor league prospect blows up then I am find with Janish at SS. If he his hitting #2 for the Reds I think the Reds will have issues.

    As for the original question I think Janish will be a boarder line average to below average SS next season. His WAR will probably be higher because of poor defensive ratings.

  16. #90
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    So Paul's pre-2010 OPS called. He wants everyone to know that he is back. Just kidding...kind of.

    Currently sitting at a .313/.327/.333 line with a raging .366 BABIP. 3 for his last 22 after collecting 12 hits in his first 6 games. 1 XBH in 48 ABs with 1 every 12 and 13 ABs in 2009 and 2010, respectively.

    Added to that, IMO, is that he hasn't looked that great at the plate. Doesn't seem like he has just been running into some bad luck.

    Thoughts on Paul? Is it a SSS? Was last year's jump into respectibility a mirage? Somewhere in the middle? What are your thoughts?


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