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View Poll Results: Given 600+ PA, how much WAR would Janish produce in 2011?

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  • Less than 0 wins (below replacement)

    2 3.23%
  • 0 wins (replacement)

    3 4.84%
  • .5 win

    6 9.68%
  • 1.0 win

    13 20.97%
  • 1.5 wins

    14 22.58%
  • 2.0 wins (major league average)

    20 32.26%
  • more than 2.0 wins

    4 6.45%
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Thread: Projecting Janish

  1. #106
    Puffy 3:16 Puffy's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by VR View Post
    His injury set him back, but batting him 2nd is a major disservice to the team, and Paul. Just pathetic. Bat him 8th where he doesn't have the pressure to produce....and can plunk away and gain confidence.
    How exactly was batting Paul second a disservice to him?? I understand it was a disservice to the team, but to him? He got to hit in front of Votto. Meaning fastballs, fastballs, fastballs. If there was ever a way to get out of a "slump" its by seeing fastballs.

    As for Janish and this poll, this is always what Janish was. Dude didn't hit in college, didn't hit in the minors and isn't going to consistently hit up here. For the slash line he has now he better be Ozzie Smith with the glove and the baserunning to be contributing.
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  3. #107
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    A month since the last bump, Paul has gone from .313/.327/.333 to .238/.273/.287, eclipsing the worst fears (to this point) of most on here. Does Walt need to make a move to upgrade, especially since Edgar hasn't been lighting the world on fire either? Is Janish's glove enough to carry a .560 OPS, which is trending downward with a bullet?

    Thoughts?
    Janish has hit very close to his career numbers in every category except two big ones, walks and HR. He's hit zero home runs so far this year.

    Maybe he won't hit any home runs this year, but that is unlikely. And his walk rate is creeping up towards his career average, so it's not crazy to think that he'll end up there.

    If he keeps his single and double totals the same, walks his career average and hits just 5 HR's this year, which would be his career average, he'll OPS .638.

    And he's currently in a bad streak. If I did the same thing right when he hurt himself, his OPS would project to over .725.

    I'm sticking with my projection of im OPS'ing around .650 and being a decent 2-3 win player when you factor in his defense.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  4. #108
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    I'm sticking with my projection of im OPS'ing around .650 and being a decent 2-3 win player when you factor in his defense.

    That makes no sense.

    Really, your suggesting that he's actually a better player than you did before the season.

    He's done worse than you originally thought. From here if he hits his projection he's still behind your projected eight ball. It's hard to suggest he's a better player than he was at the beginning of the season. At no point has he looked like a .750 OPS guy.

  5. #109
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman View Post
    That makes no sense.

    Really, your suggesting that he's actually a better player than you did before the season.

    He's done worse than you originally thought. From here if he hits his projection he's still behind your projected eight ball. It's hard to suggest he's a better player than he was at the beginning of the season. At no point has he looked like a .750 OPS guy.


    Sorry, I really don't understand what you are saying.

    I projected that Janish would OPS around .650 for the season. I still think he can and will end up there.

    What did I say in the previous post that contradicted that? I never said he was an .750 OPS guy.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  6. #110
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post


    Sorry, I really don't understand what you are saying.

    I projected that Janish would OPS around .650 for the season. I still think he can and will end up there.

    What did I say in the previous post that contradicted that? I never said he was an .750 OPS guy.
    What I am saying is, if you thought he was a .650 OPS guy at the beginning of the season, then unless you think he has improved since then, then you should be expecting him to OPS .650 the rest of the way.

    If he does that, considering his poor start, he should be expected to end the season below .650. Regression doesn't account for making up for lost time.

  7. #111
    Member CTA513's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    The shortstop who is supposed to be able to hit is now down below Janish at .228

  8. #112
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman View Post
    What I am saying is, if you thought he was a .650 OPS guy at the beginning of the season, then unless you think he has improved since then, then you should be expecting him to OPS .650 the rest of the way.

    If he does that, considering his poor start, he should be expected to end the season below .650. Regression doesn't account for making up for lost time.
    I think he will end up at around .650 OPS. Of course I understand that he would have to go on a nice streak to get there. That was my point about him being way behind his career numbers in power and walks. Those will increase so that by the end of the year, he will be near .650.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  9. #113
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Stephen Drew's currently at .792, 230 points higher than our shortstop tandem. Question: will Votto put up 230 points more OPS than Yonder Alonso?

  10. #114
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    Stephen Drew's currently at .792, 230 points higher than our shortstop tandem. Question: will Votto put up 230 points more OPS than Yonder Alonso?
    This is where I Think numbers on their own don't add up to tell the whole story.

    First, I think a team needs at least one big bat lime Votto's to compete. It affects the entire lineup if you take him out, even if you replace his overall production somewhere else.

    Second, I think with this pitching staff, I want the best defensive SS possible, and have no problem with Janish hitting like Marl Belanger, if he keeps fielding this way.

    But I like the creativity, sometimes I wish Walt had just a little of that.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  11. #115
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by Puffy View Post
    How exactly was batting Paul second a disservice to him?? I understand it was a disservice to the team, but to him? He got to hit in front of Votto. Meaning fastballs, fastballs, fastballs. If there was ever a way to get out of a "slump" its by seeing fastballs.

    .
    I missed them memo that #2 hitters get see nothing by fastballs. Apparently, so do did the Cards.

    In his 10 at bats against them.....he saw fastballs in one at bat. ONE AT BAT. Kinda scary, huh? You put a below average hitter in the #2 spot, the pitcher doesn't suddenly have fear in him. They just work harder to get him out knowing that the MVP is on deck. Sadly, it's not too tough.

    Not all batters are made to have the makeup of a top of the lineup guy. Pitchers have always pitched differently vs. the top of the lineup than they typically do vs. the bottom of the lineup. Nothing new there.
    Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand

  12. #116
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by VR View Post
    I missed them memo that #2 hitters get see nothing by fastballs. Apparently, so do did the Cards.

    In his 10 at bats against them.....he saw fastballs in one at bat. ONE AT BAT. Kinda scary, huh? You put a below average hitter in the #2 spot, the pitcher doesn't suddenly have fear in him. They just work harder to get him out knowing that the MVP is on deck. Sadly, it's not too tough.

    Not all batters are made to have the makeup of a top of the lineup guy. Pitchers have always pitched differently vs. the top of the lineup than they typically do vs. the bottom of the lineup. Nothing new there.
    Janish has a .561 OPS hitting 8th this season. And has a higher OPS in the 2 hole than hitting 8th in his career.
    Last edited by edabbs44; 05-22-2011 at 05:52 PM.

  13. #117
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Janish has a .561 OPS hitting 8th this season. And has a higher OPS in the 2 hole than hitting 8th in his career.
    Greetings small sample size.
    Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand

  14. #118
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by VR View Post
    Greetings small sample size.
    Not sure how much larger you can get than your career, but so be it.

  15. #119
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Not sure how much larger you can get than your career, but so be it.
    Sorry I wasn't clear on that. Using his .561 OPS in the 8th hole this year.....

    Paul Janish is not a #2 hitter, on any team. Opsing .635 there vs. .609 in the 8 hole really magnifies that.
    Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand

  16. #120
    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Re: Projecting Janish

    I say we protect Janish by acquiring Jose Reyes!
    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Let's face it, you mis-hit the bun with the mustard squirter, no one will really care.


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