Greinke Dealt To The Brew-Crew

[traderumor]

I hope so. That would mean that improvements were brought in from outside the organization.

But you started out this with a hypothesis that "Reds fans will be disappointed in the results over the next 5 years because they are peaking now." I would submit that any prediction such as this is flawed from the outset if one does not include as a given that there will be change in the organization. The change may be positive, it may be negative. Many of the changes will be outside of the control of the organization, such as injuries, prospect flops, personal problems with key players, etc. There will be drafts. Other orgs. will give up on guys that the Reds pick up and develop. Opportunities for key trades may present themselves. A surprise prospect or two may develop. That is just the way MLB works, so analysis that is based on all things being equal are good to identify shopping lists, but not so good for making bold predictions about the next five years of performance from the big league squad. Heck, this could be a party like 1999 for all we know.

[mth123]

But you started out this with a hypothesis that "Reds fans will be disappointed in the results over the next 5 years because they are peaking now." I would submit that any prediction such as this is flawed from the outset if one does not include as a given that there will be change in the organization. The change may be positive, it may be negative. Many of the changes will be outside of the control of the organization, such as injuries, prospect flops, personal problems with key players, etc. There will be drafts. Other orgs. will give up on guys that the Reds pick up and develop. Opportunities for key trades may present themselves. A surprise prospect or two may develop. That is just the way MLB works, so analysis that is based on all things being equal are good to identify shopping lists, but not so good for making bold predictions about the next five years of performance from the big league squad. Heck, this could be a party like 1999 for all we know.

Fair point. Overall though, the players in this organization are more likely to win in 2011 and 2012 than in future years becuase the guys who will fall off or leave are better than the in house replacements. I don't think this crew as is is good enough to be that caliber of team, but my point is, you'll have to acquire even more talent in those future years to bridge the gap and make the Reds a serious contender for a championship than you will in 2011 and 2012, so why not do something now when the opportunity is at its best?

[traderumor]

Fair point. Overall though, the players in this organization are more likely to win in 2011 and 2012 than in future years becuase the guys who will fall off or leave are better than the in house replacements. I don't think this crew as is is good enough to be that caliber of team, but my point is, you'll have to acquire even more talent in those future years to bridge the gap and make the Reds a serious contender for a championship than you will in 2011 and 2012, so why not do something now when the opportunity is at its best?

In the end, your last statement is simply begging the question.

[Ron Madden]

The Brewers ticket sales on the rise.

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/114248654.html

[kaldaniels]

Man...

Just peeked at Zack's stats as we are up against him tommorrow.

5.66 ERA thru 12 games. Yikes.

Can you say the Reds just might have been worse off (at this point in time) in the standings had they say, given up Stubbs to bring Greinke here? I'd still love to have him...but the dude has not performed this year.

[Brutus]

Man...

Just peeked at Zack's stats as we are up against him tommorrow.

5.66 ERA thru 12 games. Yikes.

Can you say the Reds just might have been worse off (at this point in time) in the standings had they say, given up Stubbs to bring Greinke here? I'd still love to have him...but the dude has not performed this year.

His strikeout/walk ratio is bordering on ridiculously good. He's had a woefully unlucky LOB%, a very, very rough .340 BABIP and an unlucky 15% HR/FB rate.

I would wager any amount of money if that exact season he's having were done all over again, his ERA for any other team would probably be no worse than 3.25.

I'd take Greinke in an absolute eyelash and not be the least bit concerned. Greinke has been the absolute most unlucky pitcher in the majors this year.

Sometimes luck (or lack thereof) gets tossed around haphazardly. But in this case, it's totally applicable.

[savafan]

Man...

Just peeked at Zack's stats as we are up against him tommorrow.

5.66 ERA thru 12 games. Yikes.

Can you say the Reds just might have been worse off (at this point in time) in the standings had they say, given up Stubbs to bring Greinke here? I'd still love to have him...but the dude has not performed this year.

The stat gurus among us will tell you that Greinke has pitched much better than his numbers indicate. We all should know by now that losses and ERA aren't good factors for evaluating pitchers. We have the knowledge today to make up new stats that will prove the argument that Greinke has just had bad luck, and you can't really hold bad luck against a guy, because it all evens out in the end. Someday they'll tell us that you shouldn't evaluate a pitcher simply on whether or not he has a pulse as well.

[757690]

Grienke's year so far is very interesting. He has pitched better than his ERA (5.66), but worse than his W-L record (7-3).

I would actually argue that he has pitched more in line with his ERA than his W-L or his FIP or xFIP or those other stats that no one really understands (lol).

First, his LD rate is way up, from around 18-19% to over 23%. I always think this gets underestimated by many. If you want to know how well a pitcher is pitching, I think you look at his line drive rate and HR rate. His HR rate is way up too, from around .8 per 9 innings, to 1.32 per 9 innings. I think his LD rate explains his high HR to flyball ratio, better than luck does. He simply is getting hit hard, when contact is made.

As for his K's, which are exceptional this year, around 12 per 9 innings as opposed to his normal 8 per 9 innings, a lot can be explained by his switching leagues. He is getting a 33% swing rate on balls outside the zone, well above his average of around 25%. That means a third of his pitches that are balls, are being swung at. Wow. I think this can best be explained by the fact that so many hitters have never seen his stuff, especially his breaking pitches.

So, unless he controls his LD rate, which he might, he is definitely in for a rough year, Even if he does, he will have to deal with hitters learning his stuff, laying off his breaking stuff, which is never good for a pitcher.

BTW, if you have watched any of his starts, he seems to be suffering from the Homer Bailey Syndrome. When anything bad happens, he falls apart for that inning.

[PuffyPig]

So, unless he controls his LD rate, which he might, he is definitely in for a rough year, Even if he does, he will have to deal with hitters learning his stuff, laying off his breaking stuff, which is never good for a pitcher.

If you are a believer that a pitcher cannot control his BABIP, you have to be a believer that a pitcher cannot control his LD rate. SInce LD's become hits about 70% of the time (more than FB's or GB's), it follows that if a pitcher could control his LD rate, he could control BABIP.

[Homer Bailey]

The stat gurus among us will tell you that Greinke has pitched much better than his numbers indicate. We all should know by now that losses and ERA aren't good factors for evaluating pitchers. We have the knowledge today to make up new stats that will prove the argument that Greinke has just had bad luck, and you can't really hold bad luck against a guy, because it all evens out in the end. Someday they'll tell us that you shouldn't evaluate a pitcher simply on whether or not he has a pulse as well.

Right. ERA and W/L records are all we need to determine how well a pitcher is pitching! Everything else is a waste of time!

[757690]

If you are a believer that a pitcher cannot control his BABIP, you have to be a believer that a pitcher cannot control his LD rate. SInce LD's become hits about 70% of the time (more than FB's or GB's), it follows that if a pitcher could control his LD rate, he could control BABIP.

Yes, I believe that pitchers can control their line drive rate. But that is a tired argument that has been rehashed over and over again on this board, so I will leave it at that.

More importantly, I believe after watching Greinke pitch many times this year, that he is responsible for the line drives he has given up this year, and not luck.

[savafan]

Right. ERA and W/L records are all we need to determine how well a pitcher is pitching! Everything else is a waste of time!

That's a broad generalization. I wouldn't go that far. We should probably include strikeouts also. K's are sexy.

[Will M]

I own Greinke & Marcum on my fantasy team. I've looked into their situations a bit. IMO Greinke has...
1) been unlucky
2) at times been very hittable
3) been a major victim of the Brewers "defense". they remind me of the Reds of a few years ago. way too many guys at positions that they just can't play.