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Thread: Jocketty vs. Krivsky: the Cost of WAR

  1. #1
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Jocketty vs. Krivsky: the Cost of WAR

    Here is my method: I added up the total WAR and salary for each player that Jocketty and Krivsky have acquired or let go as GM of the Reds. If the player was acquired, I counted only his numbers as a Red. If the player was let go, I counted only the numbers since leaving. So here we are . . .
    Code:
    WAYNE KRIVSKY
    OBTAINED			LET GO
     Salary	 WAR	Cost/WAR	 Salary  WAR	Cost/WAR
    $157.1M	45.6	 $3.444M	$134.9M	36.7	$3.676M
    
    WALT JOCKETTY
    OBTAINED			LET GO
     Salary	 WAR	Cost/WAR	Salary   WAR	Cost/WAR
     $44.8M	19.5	 $2.296M	$69.6M	16.3	 $4.269M
    In conclusion, Jocketty's shrewd moves are putting up quite a bit more value than Krivsky's. The going rate for a point of WAR on the free agent market is said to be $5M, which is more than double the efficiency Jocketty is getting out of players like Nick Masset, Scott Rolen, Arthur Rhodes, etc. His worst investment has been Willy Taveras, but you could actually make an argument for Yonder Alonso until he turns things around.

    As for Krivsky, he has been a lot more hit-and-miss. You have to love the acquisitions of Arroyo, Phillips, Hamilton/Volquez, Stubbs, etc., but there have been some very costly errors in Mike Stanton, Rheal Cormier, Kirk Saarloos, Josh Fogg, etc.

    Overall, Jocketty clearly has the advantage, but it looks like Krivsky had less to work with and managed to come out ahead anyway.

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  3. #2
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Jocketty vs. Krivsky: the Cost of WAR

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    As for Krivsky, he has been a lot more hit-and-miss. You have to love the acquisitions of Arroyo, Phillips, Hamilton/Volquez, Stubbs, etc., but there have been some very costly errors in Mike Stanton, Rheal Cormier, Kirk Saarloos, Josh Fogg, etc.
    .
    Not trying to start a debate again on Wayne vs Walt, but this is a fair assessement. Wayne had talent, but he seemed to miss the big picture. Wayne also made enough big mistakes (ie Stanton) that one sometimes really wondered what his method was.

    IMO, Walt's key strength is building a team. That's different from just collecting talented players.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  4. #3
    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: Jocketty vs. Krivsky: the Cost of WAR

    Do you have the breakdown of these numbers? I think that would be very interesting to see.

    Thanks for the info. Pretty cool.

  5. #4
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Jocketty vs. Krivsky: the Cost of WAR

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    Do you have the breakdown of these numbers? I think that would be very interesting to see.

    Thanks for the info. Pretty cool.
    Agreed; would love to see the players behind the numbers.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Member kpresidente's Avatar
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    Re: Jocketty vs. Krivsky: the Cost of WAR

    In fairness, Walt doesn't have an owner saying "win now" when the teams not good enough to win now. That approach leads to some bad contracts. Also, Walt came into a team with a good farm system. That means he doesn't have to fill holes with overpriced veterans like WK did.

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    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Jocketty vs. Krivsky: the Cost of WAR

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Agreed; would love to see the players behind the numbers.
    https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?...tNFg5Y0E&hl=en

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    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: Jocketty vs. Krivsky: the Cost of WAR

    That's some seriously awesome work golf shirt. Much appreciated.

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    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Jocketty vs. Krivsky: the Cost of WAR

    Round of applause, gumshoe. Pretty cool breakdown and about as good of an analysis as one could come up with for such a topic.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Administrator Boss-Hog's Avatar
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    Re: Jocketty vs. Krivsky: the Cost of WAR

    Interesting stuff and analysis...thanks for posting.

  11. #10
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Jocketty vs. Krivsky: the Cost of WAR

    When I read threads like this, it affirms my belief that Redsone is the best baseball site in the country. This stuff belongs on Baseball Perspectus, TangoTiger and Fangraphs, in fact it's more imprressive than some of the articles on those sites.

    Thanks Camisadelgolf
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  12. #11
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Jocketty vs. Krivsky: the Cost of WAR

    Outstanding.

    Is there anyway to factor Aaron Harang into this. He is the one big fish that is missing (he doesn't fit the data to be fair) that could possibly shape this discussion further regarding his extension in 2007.
    Last edited by kaldaniels; 12-21-2010 at 11:03 PM.

  13. #12
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Jocketty vs. Krivsky: the Cost of WAR

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    In fairness, Walt doesn't have an owner saying "win now" when the teams not good enough to win now. That approach leads to some bad contracts. Also, Walt came into a team with a good farm system. That means he doesn't have to fill holes with overpriced veterans like WK did.
    Sure, they had the same owner, the same pressure.

    Walt brought in Rolen, Hernandez, Chapman, Rhodes, etc.
    Wayne spent his money/resources on Stanton, Cormier, Maj, Castro etc.

    Wayne had some good moves, but more bad than good. That's why the W-L record deteriated every year under Wayne. I am pretty sure that Phillips and Votto are the only starting players left from when Wayne was fired. There's been turnover on the pitching staff too. Sure, Walt inherited some good farm players, but I can guarantee that if Wayne was still running the team, we would not have made the playoffs this year.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  14. #13
    Member kpresidente's Avatar
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    Re: Jocketty vs. Krivsky: the Cost of WAR

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    Sure, they had the same owner, the same pressure.
    No, Krivsky was told to win with a bad team or else he was going to get fired. It was an impossible situation.

    Sure, Walt inherited some good farm players, but I can guarantee that if Wayne was still running the team, we would not have made the playoffs this year.
    Sure we would have, since all our critical pieces were in place and we won the division by 5 games. It doesn't matter the starters weren't here. They were in Louisville.

    Walt did get lucky on Rolen and Hernandez, who both overachieved. Just like WK got lucky on Hamilton and Ross (1st year). Rhodes was a good move, kinda like Affeldt. Maybe Krivsky would have held onto Alex Gonzalez instead of dumping him and going with somebody like Cabrera. And Chapman probably would have been signed under WK as well, since he'd already been either signing or aggressively pursuing the top Latin talent during his term (Rodriguez, Duran, a record-breaking offer to Michel Inoa who went to the A's for less money), meaning this clearly represents an organizational approach that Walt just continued. I give the credit to Chris Buckley.

    Things are also a lot easier when you inherit the league MVP at pennies on the dollar instead of an overpaid, washed up Ken Griffey Jr., and when you don't have to dumpster dive to fill out your rotation, because the previous GM left you with a wealth of quality young arms.

    Walt brought in Rolen, Hernandez, Chapman, Rhodes, etc.
    Wayne spent his money/resources on Stanton, Cormier, Maj, Castro etc.
    Stanton was bad, but not as bad as Taveras. The A's paid Cormier and WK had a deal in the works for Castro when he got fired. Would you rather have paid Kearns to be injured than Majewski? The Taveras signing is the one that gives away the fact that Walt struggles just as badly as WK did when he's desperate to fill holes (let's see if we give Podsednik $4M). Only difference is he hasn't had to be as desperate.
    Last edited by kpresidente; 12-24-2010 at 04:03 AM.

  15. #14
    Member SMcGavin's Avatar
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    Re: Jocketty vs. Krivsky: the Cost of WAR

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    Walt brought in Rolen, Hernandez, Chapman, Rhodes, etc.
    Wayne spent his money/resources on Stanton, Cormier, Maj, Castro etc.
    Right, those are the guys they brought in. 400+ leadoff appearances for Willy Taveras never happened. And Wayne's legacy is defined by some middle relievers, not the All-Star middle infielder he got for nothing or the 200+ IP horse he got for the rotation.

    Both Wayne and Walt are big reasons why the Reds went to the playoffs last season. They also both have done some stupid stuff.

  16. #15
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Jocketty vs. Krivsky: the Cost of WAR

    I take offense to the notion that Walt "got lucky" with Rolen and RH. Give him credit where it is due and hold him accountable when he makes a bad move.


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