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Thread: Dave Cameron: Reds have best rotation in NL Central?

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    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Dave Cameron: Reds have best rotation in NL Central?

    From Fangraphs:

    In this afternoon’s impromptu chat session, I was asked which team I thought had the best rotation in the National League Central. This question was clearly inspired by the Brewers recent acquisitions of Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum, giving them three formidable starters to match up with the group down in St. Louis. However, I didn’t choose either of those rotations as my pick for the best in that division. Instead, I went with the Reds, with the caveat that Aroldis Chapman ends up starting for them. Am I nuts?
    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...ral-rotations/
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    Member Captain Hook's Avatar
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    Re: Dave Cameron: Reds have best rotation in NL Central?

    Over the course of the long season I think the Reds starters will prove to be the best in the Central.Injuries or a big let down from 1 or even 2 of our starting five won't doom the season like it could any of the other Central teams.The Cards were very lucky to have their top 3 stay healthy last season and they will need to be lucky again.That goes for the Brewers as well.One key injury from the top of either teams rotation could really derail things.I don't see that as a problem for the Reds.

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    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
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    Re: Dave Cameron: Reds have best rotation in NL Central?

    I hope this is true but I'm afraid though the Reds have more candidates for the rotation, most of them are still pretty much unproven.

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    Re: Dave Cameron: Reds have best rotation in NL Central?

    Even if the rotation is not actually better, I think the Reds' will have better numbers. The defense in Cinci is ligh years ahead of Mil/StL.
    "Last week I helped my friend stay put. It's a lot easier'n helpin' 'em move. I just went over to his house and made sure that he did not start to load **** into a truck."

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    Re: Dave Cameron: Reds have best rotation in NL Central?

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    I went with the Reds, with the caveat that Aroldis Chapman ends up starting for them.
    I thought it's been said that Chapman would start in the pen in 2011? Did I miss something?

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    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Dave Cameron: Reds have best rotation in NL Central?

    Quote Originally Posted by MattyMo4Life View Post
    I thought it's been said that Chapman would start in the pen in 2011? Did I miss something?
    Jocketty has been saying he would more than likely start in the rotation, though Dusty Baker opined that he would likely be in the pen.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Brett William Moore Will M's Avatar
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    Re: Dave Cameron: Reds have best rotation in NL Central?

    One problem I see is that I'd like to have only one guy in the rotation who has to be treated with kid gloves. Leake hit the wall this year & was shut down. If we add 25 IP to his 2010 total I'd set his upper limit at 173 IP.
    Chapman pitched only 108 innings. I wouldn't want both in the rotation.
    Then an issue with Chapman is that (IMO) he could help the team in the pen more in 2011 than as a starter who only goes say 140-150 IP. But then he'll never build up his arm/endurance to be a strong starter if he goes to the pen.
    Its a tough decision for the Reds.

    I'd personally would go with...
    1. Arroyo (215 IP in 2010)
    2. Cueto ( 186 IP in 2010)
    3. Wood ( 202 IP in 2010 )
    4. Bailey or Volquez
    5. Leake
    Chapman goes to the pen in 2011 & joins the rotation in 2012 once Leake can be relied on to pitch more innings.
    I'd look to move either Bailey or Volquez for help elsewhere (LF/SS).
    If nobody is moved via a trade then one of the righties goes to the pen (or Leake to AAA which I don't like). Actually I have always felt Bailey might do better in the pen. Less thinking. More gas. PLus his fastball doesn't seem to move that much. It seems guys with a 'straightball' do better in the pen. Its easier to tee off on a 95 mph straightball in the first than in the 9th. Plus he wouldn't have to pace himself. Just rear back & fire.

    I actually like any 2011 Reds rotation better than our NL Central rivals. An army of #2/#3 starters vs an ace or two but with dregs at the back end of the roatation.
    .

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    Member MattyHo4Life's Avatar
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    Re: Dave Cameron: Reds have best rotation in NL Central?

    Quote Originally Posted by Will M View Post
    Then an issue with Chapman is that (IMO) he could help the team in the pen more in 2011 than as a starter who only goes say 140-150 IP. But then he'll never build up his arm/endurance to be a strong starter if he goes to the pen.
    That's not true, because Adam Wainwright did it before. Wainwright was in the pen for the entire season of 2006 before becoming a full time Starter in 2007. So it can be done.
    Last edited by MattyHo4Life; 12-21-2010 at 10:08 PM.

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    Re: Dave Cameron: Reds have best rotation in NL Central?

    Quote Originally Posted by MattyMo4Life View Post
    That's not true, because Adam Wainwright did it before. Wainwright was in the pen for the entire season of 2006 before becoming a full time Starter in 2007. So it can be done.
    Wainwright had pitched full minor league seasons before that, though. I think Chapman's workload history is probably more comparable to someone like Joba Chamberlain or Brandon Morrow?
    "Reality tells us there are no guarantees. Except that some day Jon Lester will be on that list of 100-game winners." - Peter Gammons

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    Re: Dave Cameron: Reds have best rotation in NL Central?

    I think Chapman starts in the pen but at some point is sent to the minors to turn into a starter. The Reds don't need him in the roto to get to the playoffs, but they might need him in the roto IN the playoffs.

    This also delays his service time a little and could get the Reds out of an early arbitration situation.
    I have a love-hate relationship with Albert Pujols. Mostly hate.

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    Re: Dave Cameron: Reds have best rotation in NL Central?

    Quote Originally Posted by Will M View Post
    I actually like any 2011 Reds rotation better than our NL Central rivals. An army of #2/#3 starters vs an ace or two but with dregs at the back end of the roatation.
    Well, I don't think either Wolf or Westbrook would be considered dregs. They are the #4 starters on each team, and I think both pitchers are strong #4 starters. Wolf isn't a very good #2 starter, but he can hold his own now that Greinke and Marcum have joined the team.

    I'm not going to argue that Lohse isn't a dregs, but both Wolf and Westbrook are solid starting pitchers.

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    Brett William Moore Will M's Avatar
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    Re: Dave Cameron: Reds have best rotation in NL Central?

    Quote Originally Posted by MattyMo4Life View Post
    Well, I don't think either Wolf or Westbrook would be considered dregs. They are the #4 starters on each team, and I think both pitchers are strong #4 starters. Wolf isn't a very good #2 starter, but he can hold his own now that Greinke and Marcum have joined the team.

    I'm not going to argue that Lohse isn't a dregs, but both Wolf and Westbrook are solid starting pitchers.
    ok. they aren't 'dregs' but they aren't good either. both had an ERA+ over 100last year. i suspect all seven Reds starters are better than these guys.

    i personally prefer the Reds rotation over Carpenter/Wainright/Garcia/Westbrook/5th starter. however, i can see why someone else would prefer the Cards rotation. one thing that the Reds have is depth. even if one of our starters is traded for help elsewhere the Reds are still six deep with LeCure and Maloney available in emergencies. If one of the Cards aces goes down then they are in big trouble.
    .

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Dave Cameron: Reds have best rotation in NL Central?

    Quote Originally Posted by Will M View Post
    ok. they aren't 'dregs' but they aren't good either. both had an ERA+ over 100last year. i suspect all seven Reds starters are better than these guys.

    i personally prefer the Reds rotation over Carpenter/Wainright/Garcia/Westbrook/5th starter. however, i can see why someone else would prefer the Cards rotation. one thing that the Reds have is depth. even if one of our starters is traded for help elsewhere the Reds are still six deep with LeCure and Maloney available in emergencies. If one of the Cards aces goes down then they are in big trouble.
    I think Wolf and Westbrook are both pretty comparable to Arroyo. And while the Reds have a lot of guys with potential for more, Arroyo is the Reds de facto Ace at this point. The real difference is that both the Royals and the Cards each have three pitchers who are better than that (though I might argue that Garcia hasn't done it enough yet to have proven it). On the Reds only Cueto has actually shown on the field that he's comparable or better than Arroyo.

    IF the Reds come up with three guys who perform well enough to make Arroyo a number 4 starter (its possible) then the Reds rotation will stack-up, but that's a lot of stuff that would have to go right and some guys stepping up and doing what they've never done to make that happen. The Cards and Royals guys simply need to continue performing at the levels that they've already established. IMO, that is the difference. If Bailey, Wood and Cueto all come through and turn Arroyo into the number 4, then the Reds staff may be able to stack-up, I'm not optimistic that Volquez or Leake will be anyone we want out there and Chapman looks like the 8th inning lefty from here.
    Last edited by mth123; 12-22-2010 at 03:26 AM.
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    Re: Dave Cameron: Reds have best rotation in NL Central?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I think Wolf and Westbrook are both pretty comparable to Arroyo. And while the Reds have a lot of guys with potential for more, Arroyo is the Reds de facto Ace at this point. The real difference is that both the Royals and the Cards each have three pitchers who are better than that (though I might argue that Garcia hasn't done it enough yet to have proven it). On the Reds only Cueto has actually shown on the field that he's comparable or better than Arroyo.

    IF the Reds come up with three guys who perform well enough to make Arroyo a number 4 starter (its possible) then the Reds rotation will stack-up, but that's a lot of stuff that would have to go right and some guys stepping up and doing what they've never done to make that happen. The Cards and Royals guys simply need to continue performing at the levels that they've already established. IMO, that is the difference. If Bailey, Wood and Cueto all come through and turn Arroyo into the number 4, then the Reds staff may be able to stack-up, I'm not optimistic that Volquez or Leake will be anyone we want out there and Chapman looks like the 8th inning lefty from here.
    Volquez has done it before, Bailey hasn't come close. And I don't know what RZ has against Leake but I think they all will be proven very wrong on him. It's like there are genuinely no good reasons for struggle even if you are 22 years old, skip the minors, switch to a 5 man rotation, are pitching more innings than your arm ever has, etc. It must be that your just not very good.
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    Member MattyHo4Life's Avatar
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    Re: Dave Cameron: Reds have best rotation in NL Central?

    Quote Originally Posted by Will M View Post
    ok. they aren't 'dregs' but they aren't good either. both had an ERA+ over 100last year. i suspect all seven Reds starters are better than these guys.

    i personally prefer the Reds rotation over Carpenter/Wainright/Garcia/Westbrook/5th starter. however, i can see why someone else would prefer the Cards rotation. one thing that the Reds have is depth. even if one of our starters is traded for help elsewhere the Reds are still six deep with LeCure and Maloney available in emergencies. If one of the Cards aces goes down then they are in big trouble.
    I'd prefer the Cards rotation... if they stay healthy. That's the big question. Yes....the Reds have depth that the Cards don't have.


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