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Thread: Drew Stubbs: Lead Off Hitter

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    Lets Go 'Bird' Hunting The Voice of IH's Avatar
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    Drew Stubbs: Lead Off Hitter

    http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/...s_cin&c_id=cin

    I do wonder why Drew Stubbs can not be a lead off hitter. If he can become more patient at the plate and put the ball in play his speed will have his average climbing in no time.

    anyone care to tell me why it is a bad idea?
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    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs: Lead Off Hitter

    I despise the idea of Stubbs batting leadoff. He has a low OBP and is too much of a free-swinger. I like him batting seventh where he can relax and knock in some runs.

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    Re: Drew Stubbs: Lead Off Hitter

    Quote Originally Posted by Blitz Dorsey View Post
    I despise the idea of Stubbs batting leadoff. He has a low OBP and is too much of a free-swinger. I like him batting seventh where he can relax and knock in some runs.
    This is likely BP's last year with the Reds. Ideally, I'd like to see the Reds find a way to come up with a young 2B/SS combination capable of getting on base and batting 1/2. I'm not just talking about batting anybody 1st or 2nd jus be cause SS bats 1srt and the 2B bats second. I'm talking about a pair of guys who can take a walk and post a high OBP. Speed would be a bonus. Much easier said than done.

    Of course, I'm kind of old school in terms of lineup construction. I believe the four corners should be bashers who make uo the core of the order (4-6) The catcher is usually not a leadoff candidate and these days, doesn't usually provide middle of the order power (Mes may just buck this though), so they usually hit 7th or 8th.

    That leaves CF, 2B and SS to fill out the top two spots in the order with the odd man out at the bottom of the order. If I'm running a club, I do everything I can to acquire MIs that can not only field but hit for Avg & OBP.

    Unfortunately, the Reds FO seems to have been all too intersted in drafting MIs that are fine defensively, but OBP challenged. Hopefully, that will change as Hamilton, Arias and possibly HRod continue their climb.

    I agree with you on Stubbs not leading off. I like him in the 7th spot in the order as he develops. I thinkit's much more likely that he develops into a 4-6 hitter than a top of the order guy, Trying to force him into the leadoff role may hurt his development.

    If it does appear that Rolen's power has tailed off this year, but his OBP remains high, I'm fine with Scott in the two-hole though.
    Last edited by corkedbat; 12-22-2010 at 01:03 AM.

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    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs: Lead Off Hitter

    Quote Originally Posted by Blitz Dorsey View Post
    I despise the idea of Stubbs batting leadoff. He has a low OBP and is too much of a free-swinger. I like him batting seventh where he can relax and knock in some runs.
    The average hitter in the first slot had an OBP of .328 in the NL. Drew Stubbs was above that in 2010, and he was barely more than a rookie. I'm not saying I disagree, but I don't think you can use his low OBP as evidence when he's actually above average in the on-base department.

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    OlafTheBlack Dan's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs: Lead Off Hitter

    I'd like to see the Reds pick up a speedy, high OBP guy (Reyes?) to bat leadoff and then hit Stubbs 2nd in the order. With Reyes on base, Stubbs would see a lot more fastballs than he would see batting in the 7th hole in front of Janish.
    Sabermetrics is this: A batter's goal is to extend the inning. Extend enough innings and you're going to score runs. Extend more innings than your opponent and you're going to score more runs than him.

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    Blowing away bad memories Redsfan320's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs: Lead Off Hitter

    Bruce is easy for me- I want him batting clean-up for years to come. Stubbs I wrestle with- I don't know if I want that speed hitting lead-off (my name's not Dusty, but it is helpful there), or if I want something like Blitz and for him to hit sixth or seventh.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs: Lead Off Hitter

    I don't understand why a leadoff man needs to be a good contact and sac bunt guy. Isn't leadoff the spot where those things will matter least, since they won't likely have guys on base for them?
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs: Lead Off Hitter

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I don't understand why a leadoff man needs to be a good contact and sac bunt guy. Isn't leadoff the spot where those things will matter least, since they won't likely have guys on base for them?
    I can only assume Sheldon is mentioning sac bunts as evidence Stubbs isn't that great a bunter in general. Which we all know he could brush up there that's no big secret. But to answer your question from my point of view I believe an "ideal" leadoff man (or most ideal) as Sheldon seems to be looking for in this piece should be adept at bunting and making contact. It just improves his chances of getting on base. The bigger the toolbox...

    The problem I have with Sheldons thoughts is that he believes the leadoff hitter is just a table setter once. Well a guy may only lead off an inning once or not but he will always come to the plate just prior to the 3rd place hitter who is the most likely guy in the lineup to drive in a run because of his abilities.

    All that said Stubbs could do it and probably would be adequate if he took the same approach he does in the 7 hole. It may be a slight detriment to the team in that you want your leadoff guy to kind of gauge the starting pitchers stuff that night because he is usually the best guy equipped to take a bunch of pitches and still have a decent shot of getting on base. But Stubbs cannot afford to sit and watch good pitches go by with his contact issues.
    Last edited by Mario-Rijo; 12-22-2010 at 10:18 AM.
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    Member Cedric's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs: Lead Off Hitter

    I was gonna post a long thesis on why I think Stubbs hitting leadoff and having success is key to this team.. But I came onto Redszone and Scarlett Johansen keeps popping up and getting me angry at the world, so I'm out.
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    Lets Go 'Bird' Hunting The Voice of IH's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs: Lead Off Hitter

    I honestly feel if Stubbs puts the ball in play, rather then striking out, he will be an ultimate lead off hitter. I think with the experiences he gained last year, he will have a more developed approach suited for a big league plate and I think because of that will raise his average and production.
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    Re: Drew Stubbs: Lead Off Hitter

    Quote Originally Posted by Blitz Dorsey View Post
    I despise the idea of Stubbs batting leadoff. He has a low OBP and is too much of a free-swinger. I like him batting seventh where he can relax and knock in some runs.
    A free swinger?

    He's the opposite of a "free swinger'

    Not every high K guy is a "free swinger", whatever that really means.


    He K's alot because he takes a ton of pitches and gets deep into the count. Many suggest he lets to many hittable pitches go by. Patience is not his problem.

    He'll improve his K'W ratio once he improves his pitch recognition (if ever).

    If he hits as well as he dis last year, he's likely our best lead off hitter, The question is whether he hits as well hitting first as lower in the lineup.

    He didn't do that last year.

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    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs: Lead Off Hitter

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    A free swinger?

    He's the opposite of a "free swinger'

    Not every high K guy is a "free swinger", whatever that really means.


    He K's alot because he takes a ton of pitches and gets deep into the count. Many suggest he lets to many hittable pitches go by. Patience is not his problem.

    He'll improve his K'W ratio once he improves his pitch recognition (if ever).

    If he hits as well as he dis last year, he's likely our best lead off hitter, The question is whether he hits as well hitting first as lower in the lineup.

    He didn't do that last year.
    Excellent anaylsis.

    I usually don't mind where a batter hits in a lineup, but it really seemed to mess with Stubb head when he leadoff. Threre's no reason to believe that he can't adjust and become a good leadoff hitter, but he does have make that adjustment and not be overwhelmed with the task of leading off. And in the end, it really does just come down to his ability to improve his pitch recognition. It took Bruce about two years to improve his.
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    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs: Lead Off Hitter

    I think Drew Stubbs could be an adequate leadoff hitter if he were left in that slot. I believe Dusty will go with Brandon Phillips.

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs: Lead Off Hitter

    Why shouldn't Drew Stubbs bat lead off? Simple, you don't put a guy who can hit you 25 HR's in a spot where hardly anyone is going to be on base for them.

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    Re: Drew Stubbs: Lead Off Hitter

    Batting leadoff last year Phillips had a .302 OBP, but had a .332 OBP overall. If Phillips can just OBP .320 in the leadoff spot then he is going to be a better option than Stubbs leading off. Simply due to the fact, as Doug mentioned, Stubbs has 25 HR power and will get a lot of opportunities to drive runs in hitting behind Votto, Rolen, Bruce, and maybe Gomes/LF'er.

    However, I wouldn't mind seeing Stubbs in the 2 hole either depending on the LF and SS situations. If it is Gomes and Janish, we need someone to get on base in front of Joey, and neither of those two are going to do it at a good ratio most likely.

    If Stubbs bumps his OBP up in the .350-.360 range, then he has likely just became that much more dangerous of a hitter, and should be put right in the thick of the 3-4-5-6 range.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.


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