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Thread: Drew Stubbs: Lead Off Hitter

  1. #31
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    Re: Drew Stubbs: Lead Off Hitter

    IIRC, computer simulations on various lineups often show that the most runs are scored when the best hitter (based on OPS) hits first, and so on.

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  3. #32
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    Re: Drew Stubbs: Lead Off Hitter

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    IIRC, computer simulations on various lineups often show that the most runs are scored when the best hitter (based on OPS) hits first, and so on.
    Computer simulations also contain a lot of assumptions. I would like to know the assumptions made when they run these simulations.
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    Re: Drew Stubbs: Lead Off Hitter

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Ideally you want a top of the order guy who doesn't have much power, but still gets on base often. You are typically going to waste power in the leadoff spot when no one is on base, so guys with power bat further down in the line up.
    Um, no.
    Ideally, the guy at the top of the order gets on base a ton with speed. His power pptenrial is irrelevant. if he has power, that's a bonus. Stubbs doesn't get on at a high rate, YET. I think that is becase of approach. Which, is why I prefer him in the sixth spot.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  5. #34
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs: Lead Off Hitter

    I think the power is irrelevant. Simply put, if the guy possesses the skills to excel at leading off, that's where you slot him. Even if the guy DOES have 20-30 HR potential. Because we're talking about 20-30 at bats there. Its what he does with those other AB's that make him a leadoff hitter. Besides, he's only at the plate with NOBODY on base 1 time per game for certain. There's nothing saying that the HR's would be "wasted".
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    Re: Drew Stubbs: Lead Off Hitter

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    I think the power is irrelevant. Simply put, if the guy possesses the skills to excel at leading off, that's where you slot him. Even if the guy DOES have 20-30 HR potential. Because we're talking about 20-30 at bats there. Its what he does with those other AB's that make him a leadoff hitter. Besides, he's only at the plate with NOBODY on base 1 time per game for certain. There's nothing saying that the HR's would be "wasted".
    Then why doesn't Joey Votto bat leadoff? It's simple, because the power does matter and those HR's would be wasted. We are probably talking about 20 additional runs in the NL for a guy hitting 30 HR's from the leadoff spot and the #3 spot because of people being on base (or not) for him.

    Sure, its not a given that no one is on base for the leadoff guy other than once a game. But it is a given that they are going to get more chances with runners on base hitting 3-6 than they will batting first by the simple fact that the pitcher bats before the leadoff hitter with a sub .250 OBP, while actual hitters bat before the 3-6 hitters and are going to get on base much more often than the pitcher will.

  7. #36
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    Re: Drew Stubbs: Lead Off Hitter

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    IIRC, computer simulations on various lineups often show that the most runs are scored when the best hitter (based on OPS) hits first, and so on.
    I've never seen one that only takes OPS as input. Usually they figure OBP and SLG seperately. But I generally thought hitter should bat 2nd. But your best hitters tend to have high OBPs. "best hitter" isn't always the same as "best power", though.

    I just did one for the reds and they have Votto 2nd in the top 5 lineups. But, again, that's mostly because of his .424 OBP. If I lower his OBP to .353 (same as Bruce) while keeping his .600 SLG (still our best OPS by a long shot), the simulator moved him back to cleanup.

    That pretty much confirms the conventional wisdom....OBP early, SLG in the middle.


    Best lineups with Votto with his real numbers...

    Code:
    Runs per Game	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
    5.071	Hernand	Votto	Phillip	Bruce	Rolen	Stubbs	Gomes	Pitcher	Cabrera
    5.070	Hernand	Votto	Phillip	Bruce	Rolen	Gomes	Stubbs	Pitcher	Cabrera
    5.069	Hernand	Votto	Phillip	Rolen	Bruce	Stubbs	Gomes	Pitcher	Cabrera
    5.069	Hernand	Votto	Phillip	Rolen	Bruce	Gomes	Stubbs	Pitcher	Cabrera
    5.068	Hernand	Votto	Gomes	Bruce	Rolen	Stubbs	Phillip	Pitcher	Cabrera
    5.066	Votto	Rolen	Phillip	Bruce	Hernand	Stubbs	Gomes	Pitcher	Cabrera
    5.066	Hernand	Votto	Gomes	Rolen	Bruce	Stubbs	Phillip	Pitcher	Cabrera
    5.066	Hernand	Votto	Gomes	Bruce	Rolen	Phillip	Stubbs	Pitcher	Cabrera
    5.066	Votto	Rolen	Phillip	Bruce	Hernand	Gomes	Stubbs	Pitcher	Cabrera
    5.065	Hernand	Votto	Stubbs	Bruce	Rolen	Gomes	Phillip	Pitcher	Cabrera
    (Notice where Stubbs is?)


    And with Votto having a hypothetical .353 OBP...

    Code:
    Runs per Game	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
    4.937	Hernand	Rolen	Phillip	Votto	Bruce	Stubbs	Gomes	Pitcher	Cabrera
    4.937	Hernand	Bruce	Phillip	Votto	Rolen	Stubbs	Gomes	Pitcher	Cabrera
    4.936	Hernand	Rolen	Phillip	Votto	Bruce	Gomes	Stubbs	Pitcher	Cabrera
    4.936	Hernand	Bruce	Phillip	Votto	Rolen	Gomes	Stubbs	Pitcher	Cabrera
    4.934	Hernand	Rolen	Gomes	Votto	Bruce	Stubbs	Phillip	Pitcher	Cabrera
    4.933	Hernand	Bruce	Gomes	Votto	Rolen	Stubbs	Phillip	Pitcher	Cabrera
    4.932	Hernand	Rolen	Gomes	Votto	Bruce	Phillip	Stubbs	Pitcher	Cabrera
    4.932	Hernand	Bruce	Gomes	Votto	Rolen	Phillip	Stubbs	Pitcher	Cabrera
    4.931	Hernand	Rolen	Stubbs	Votto	Bruce	Gomes	Phillip	Pitcher	Cabrera
    4.931	Hernand	Bruce	Stubbs	Votto	Rolen	Gomes	Phillip	Pitcher	Cabrera
    http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-b...+0.175&Model=0
    Last edited by kpresidente; 12-24-2010 at 01:27 PM.

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    Re: Drew Stubbs: Lead Off Hitter

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Then why doesn't Joey Votto bat leadoff? It's simple, because the power does matter and those HR's would be wasted. We are probably talking about 20 additional runs in the NL for a guy hitting 30 HR's from the leadoff spot and the #3 spot because of people being on base (or not) for him.

    Sure, its not a given that no one is on base for the leadoff guy other than once a game. But it is a given that they are going to get more chances with runners on base hitting 3-6 than they will batting first by the simple fact that the pitcher bats before the leadoff hitter with a sub .250 OBP, while actual hitters bat before the 3-6 hitters and are going to get on base much more often than the pitcher will.
    Votto doesn't bat leadoff because his power is also supplemented by a high BA. So, Votto gets on base a ton, he walks a lot, hits a lot and hits for power. You put that at the #3 or 4 spot. Stubbs... has power. He does not hit for average and he does not walk alot. That you put in the 6-7 spot.

    Stubbs IS a free swinger, and I can be happy with that batting 6th or 7th. I one said he's a poor man's Adam Dunn, but that really isn't correct. He'll K as much as Dunn, but his BB's are roughly half of a typical Dunn year.

    Stubbs 1st half/2nd half splits are very interesting. I don't think he's the player he showed in either half, but rather the sum. And that is a lot more than I though he'd ever be. I think he very likely is about a .330 OBP guy. I think he'll eventually be a 30+ HR guy, maybe 35+. But he's historically been a contact challenged guy that simply doesn't BB enough. And that's ok lower in the order.

    Stubbs so far in his young career has about 300 AB's as a leadoff hitter and 300 batting seventh. At leadoff his OBP is .327, 7th it's .332. Not much of a difference. At leadoff his SLG is.409, 7th it is .452.

    And a very telling stat, when leading off an inning, Stubbs numbers: .249 .302 .450 .752 w/10HR's. The HR's are very nice, but he makes an out 70% of the time he leads off an inning. Not good for the guy starting the game.

    And THAT is why Stubbs shouldn't lead off. It isn't his tools, it's how he approaches or appears to approach being the leadoff hitter. 90% of the game is mental, the other half is physical.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  9. #38
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs: Lead Off Hitter

    One of the reasons people like Stubbs at the leadoff spot is that he's fast and can steal bases. You hear people talk about him stealing 50-70 bases a year. But will he even have 50-70 attempts? For all the talk about Dusty being old school and playing in the 70s when the stolen base was used often, I haven't seen it that much from him last year. Stubbs had 131 base hits last year. Add 55 walks and 5 HBPs in there and that's almost 200 times he reached 1st base. Of course there could have been someone on 2nd base which would lessen the odds of a SB but Stubbs only attempted 36 stolen bases. If he's such a threat to steal, why did he only attempt to steal a sixth of the time he made it on 1st?
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  10. #39
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    Re: Drew Stubbs: Lead Off Hitter

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    And THAT is why Stubbs shouldn't lead off. It isn't his tools, it's how he approaches or appears to approach being the leadoff hitter. 90% of the game is mental, the other half is physical.
    I don't really care about why Stubbs shouldn't lead off really. It applies to everyone. If you can hit 20 HR's, you should be batting leadoff. Its wasting the power at the #1 spot.

  11. #40
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    Re: Drew Stubbs: Lead Off Hitter

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I don't really care about why Stubbs shouldn't lead off really. It applies to everyone. If you can hit 20 HR's, you should be batting leadoff. Its wasting the power at the #1 spot.
    That's true, unless your team has four 30 HR guys in the lineup, and he a good leadoff hitter.

    It really all depends on your team.
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    Re: Drew Stubbs: Lead Off Hitter

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I don't really care about why Stubbs shouldn't lead off really. It applies to everyone. If you can hit 20 HR's, you should be batting leadoff. Its wasting the power at the #1 spot.
    No. a million times no. You are putting the power aspect in a vacuum. A leadoff HR gives a team at best a 1-0 advantage, and at worst draws a team 1 run closer (assuming a bad top of the first.) Power is never wasted. In the leadoff spot, assuming the batter has the OBP to be a leadoff hitter (IMO, .345 or better) it's a bonus, nothing more.


    BTW, Merry Christmas doug, it's been fun arguing with you this past year.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  13. #42
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs: Lead Off Hitter

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    Yeah, but Stubbs doesn't possess the other ingredients. If he had a .400 OBP, like Rickey Henderson, nobody would care that his 25 HRs were "wasted". The question is, "where will Stubbs generate the most runs, leadoff or 6th?" I say he's and ideal 6th hitter, because his power will drive in runs, and his speed will get him in scoring position so the weaker bats at the bottom of the order can drive him in by hitting singles.
    Not really arguing that. Just the idea of batting a guy further down in the order because he has pop. But to be fair Stubbs has all the ingredients with the exception of hitting for avg. His inability to make contact is surely an issue but if he starts getting adept at bunting it won't matter nearly as much because he will OBP% reasonably high. He's perfectly capable of OBP% .350ish right now and that would easily be the best we have currently. I'd probably prefer to bat him 2nd with this expected lineup behind BP.
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  14. #43
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    Re: Drew Stubbs: Lead Off Hitter

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    No. a million times no. You are putting the power aspect in a vacuum. A leadoff HR gives a team at best a 1-0 advantage, and at worst draws a team 1 run closer (assuming a bad top of the first.) Power is never wasted. In the leadoff spot, assuming the batter has the OBP to be a leadoff hitter (IMO, .345 or better) it's a bonus, nothing more.


    BTW, Merry Christmas doug, it's been fun arguing with you this past year.
    A 1-0 lead is nice, but I would rather see 8-10 HR's with guys on base and 12-15 solo shots than 20 solo shots and 5 multi run HR's.

    Merry Christmas to you and yours. As long as the Reds are winning, the arguing is plenty fun!

  15. #44
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs: Lead Off Hitter

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Then why doesn't Joey Votto bat leadoff? It's simple, because the power does matter and those HR's would be wasted. We are probably talking about 20 additional runs in the NL for a guy hitting 30 HR's from the leadoff spot and the #3 spot because of people being on base (or not) for him.

    Sure, its not a given that no one is on base for the leadoff guy other than once a game. But it is a given that they are going to get more chances with runners on base hitting 3-6 than they will batting first by the simple fact that the pitcher bats before the leadoff hitter with a sub .250 OBP, while actual hitters bat before the 3-6 hitters and are going to get on base much more often than the pitcher will.
    Because he doesn't possess ALL the other skills you want in a leadoff guy. Speed being the biggest & most obvious one.

    And by the way, I'm not advocating Stubbs for leadoff...just saying that because the guy has some power doesn't mean he's a bad choice for leading off. Especially when you take the rest of the roster in mind. It's all a matter of context. Given our roster...he "might" be the best option.

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I don't really care about why Stubbs shouldn't lead off really. It applies to everyone. If you can hit 20 HR's, you should be batting leadoff. Its wasting the power at the #1 spot.
    But what if he can hit 19 HR's? 18? 21? What's the cutoff? What is TOO much power? You're looking at it in a vacuum. You have to take it in context of the entire roster. (again, not saying Stubbs is the right guy)
    Last edited by _Sir_Charles_; 12-24-2010 at 10:12 PM.
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    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
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    Hamilton ROY & GG

  16. #45
    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs: Lead Off Hitter

    Ricky was usually not only the fastest guy on his teams but the best. To me, giving him more AB's then everyone else was the best plan.
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