2011 Organizational Depth Chart

[camisadelgolf]

I figured I'd take my best stab at guessing how next year's depth chart will play out. Here's what I got:

   AAA			AA			A+			A			Rk			AZL
 C Devin Mesoraco	Kevin Coddington	Mark Fleury		Yasmani Grandal		Chris Berset		Danny Vicioso
1B Yonder Alonso	Neftali Soto		Chris Richburg		Dominic D'Anna		Jonathan Kaskow		Robert Maddox
2B Chris Valaika	Jake Kahaulelio		Brodie Greene		Devin Lohman		Mauricio Pimentel	Ronald Torreyes
3B Juan Francisco	Eric Campbell		Alex Buchholz		David Vidal		Carlos Gualdron		Adam Muenster
SS Zack Cozart		Kris Negron		Didi Gregorius		Billy Hamilton		Junior Arias		Brandon Dailey
LF Todd Frazier		Cody Puckett		Josh Fellhauer		Juan Silva		Jaren Matthews		Dayne Read
CF Dave Sappelt		Felix Perez		Ryan LaMarre		Yorman Rodriguez	Jefry Sierra		Kurt Muller
RF Danny Dorn		Kyle Day		Cameron Satterwhite	Josh Garton		Juan Duran		Kyle Waldrop

 C Corky Miller		Chris McMurray		Jordan Wideman		Tucker Barnhart		TreyManz;YovanGonzalez	FraySosa;WilliamHarford
IF Eric Eymann		Jose Castro		Henry Rodriguez		Oliver Santos		John Dao		Will Stramp
IF Mike Costanzo	Miguel Rojas		Frank Pfister		Sam Diaz		Cristobal Rodriguez	Carter Morrison
OF David Cook		Denis Phipps		Andrew Means		Theo Bowe		Stephen Hunt		Jeff Taylor
UT Mike Griffin		Carlos Mendez		Shane Carlson		Donald Lutz		Drew Poulk		Miguel Chacoa

SP Matt Maloney		Matt Fairel		Josh Ravin		Kyle Lotzkar		Ismael Guillon
SP Daryl Thompson	Scott Carroll		Pedro Villarreal	Jonathan Correa		Wes Mugarian
SP Sam LeCure		Tom Cochran		Mark Serrano		Dan Corcino		Tanner Robles
SP Chad Reineke		Jordan Hotchkiss	J.C. Sulbaran		Jake Johnson		Mitch Clarke
SP Justin Lehr		Dallas Buck		Clay Shunick		Dan Tuttle		Evan Hildenbrandt
SP Matt Klinker		Travis Webb		Lance Janke		Tim Crabbe		Starlin Gerson

RP Carlos Fisher	Brad Boxberger		Chase Ware		Drew Cisco		Porfirio Martinez
RP Jordan Smith		Donnie Joseph		Nick Christiani		Josh Smith		Matt Leonard
RP Daniel Ray Herrera	Jeff Jeffords		Drew Bowman		Tony Amezcua		Ryan Smith
RP Phil Valiquette	Justin Freeman		Tzu-Kai Chiu		Kevin Arico		Jose Marizan
RP Jeremy Horst		Jerry Gil		Justin Walker		Blaine Howell		El'Hajj Muhammad
RP Joe Krebs		Ruben Medina		Doug Salinas		Brian Pearl		Po-Cheng Chi
RP Lee Tabor		Derrik Lutz		Ezequiel Infante	Pat Doyle		Drew Hayes
RP 			Mace Thurman		Blair Carson		Jamie Walczak		Dan Renken
RP 			Curtis Partch		Jason Braun		Dan Wolford		Luca Panerati
RP 			James Avery		Ricky Bowen		Nate Driessen		Tyler Cline

NOT INCLUDED DUE TO LACK OF ROOM:
 C Chase Weems
1B Tommy Nurre
OF Justin Reed
OF Alex Oliveras
OF Welinton Ramirez
OF Sean Conner
SP Daniel Guerrero
SP Carlos Contreras
RP Junior Martinez
RP Mike Henry
RP Scott Gaffney
RP Aguido Gonzalez
RP Jesus Adames
RP Joel Ernst

As you can see, I didn't list Brian Barton. Until the Reds make another transaction, I think he has a very good chance of making the 25-man roster. If not him, then maybe Yonder Alonso or Juan Francisco will make the team, which would put Barton in LF for Louisville.

Anyway, any critiques? Am I missing anyone?

[Homer Bailey]

3B has me very, very concerned.

Thanks for doing this golf shirt. You're on a roll.

[camisadelgolf]

Oops. This should be in the minor league forum. Also, I just found out that Kevyn Feiner and Danny Hernandez were released, so they're no longer in my post.

[camisadelgolf]

3B has me very, very concerned.

Yeah, and I find it interesting because recently, we thought it was one of the organization's biggest strengths. That was back when Edwin Encarnacion was younger, Neftali Soto was still a 3B, Todd Frazier was seen as more of an infielder than an outfielder, and Brandon Waring was still in the organization. Oh, and how could I forget? Adam Rosales was still around, too.

[Scrap Irony]

3B has me very, very concerned.

Thanks for doing this golf shirt. You're on a roll.

Why? 3B has Rolen, Francisco, and Frazier for depth. All three profile to be major league regulars, at least according to John Sickels' latest projections. So the position should be covered for at least three years.

After that, Junior Arias, IMO, could be a solid bet for 3B, as could any number of draftees between now and then. (Of course, so could Cody Puckett, or, if they're harking back to the Tony Fernandez experiment, so could a guy like Bily Hamilton.

Imagine the UZR on a guy like Hamilton at the hot corner.

[camisadelgolf]

Why? 3B has Rolen, Francisco, and Frazier for depth. All three profile to be major league regulars, at least according to John Sickels' latest projections. So the position should be covered for at least three years.

After that, Junior Arias, IMO, could be a solid bet for 3B, as could any number of draftees between now and then. (Of course, so could Cody Puckett, or, if they're harking back to the Tony Fernandez experiment, so could a guy like Bily Hamilton.

Imagine the UZR on a guy like Hamilton at the hot corner.

Puckett doesn't have the arm for 3B. He's limited to the right side of the infield or possibly LF.

[Scrap Irony]

Yeah, maybe, camisa. So move Puckett to 2B and look at all those SS candidates who could play an excellent 3B. Or move guys like Valaika or Cozart.

The depth is there, though the extreme lower end talent has moved to the OF, middle infield, and catcher.

To put it another way, Sickels just graded out Red prospects. Two starters graded out as B's or above. Two catchers. One reliever. One 1B. One middle infielder. And two 3B.

[camisadelgolf]

I don't really understand why the Reds have so many corner infielders in AA or higher: Eric Eymann, Mike Griffin, Mike Costanzo, Carlos Mendez, and Eric Campbell. If it were up to me, I would have cut bait with at least a couple of those guys by now.

[camisadelgolf]

If I had to pick an organizational weakness, it would be corner outfielders. Juan Duran and maybe Kyle Waldrop are pretty much the only corner outfield prospects below AAA that I'm excited about. Everyone else looks like a future AAAA player at best.

[Benihana]

Nicely done Camisa.

Couple of small changes I'd suggest:

Drew Cisco should be starting rather than coming out of the 'pen, at least to begin with. Maybe slot him in the Dayton rotation over Crabbe. If not, he starts in Billings.

Miguel Rojas and Henry Rodriguez should be starting somewhere in their respective infields, maybe instead of Kahauelio and Richburg, respectively. Tucker Barnhardt should be playing everyday as well, even if it's in Billings (or maybe Dayton after Grandal is bumped to A+).

Unless the Reds draft a MI in the first couple of rounds in 2011, I'd challenge Torreyes and start him in Billings next to Arias. They could make a nice MI combo in the lower minors. I'd also start Waldrop in Billings rather than the AZL. Where is Humberto Valor?

Finally, whoever ends up as the odd man out of the Cincy rotation (Leake?) probably starts in Louisville, possibly along with Chapman. Conversely, I think at least two of the infielders you listed in AAA start the season in Cincy (if Cozart or Valaika start in Cincy, Negron to AAA, and Rojas as starting SS in Carolina).

Candidates for the quickest promotions: Felix Perez, Donnie Joseph, Ryan LaMarre, Yaz Grandal, Kyle Lotzkar, and Ismael Guillon.

[Mario-Rijo]

If I had to pick an organizational weakness, it would be corner outfielders. Juan Duran and maybe Kyle Waldrop are pretty much the only corner outfield prospects below AAA that I'm excited about. Everyone else looks like a future AAAA player at best.

Juan Silva is a nice player IMO.

[Hoosier Red]

That is some serious depth at AAA. There isn't a single position where if we had to get an emergency guy to fill in for two weeks, we wouldn't be in okay shape.

Not saying I'd rather have Alonso than Votto or Chris Valaika over Brandon Phillips, but as insurance against a short term DL stint, these guys are all quality.

Then the calvary of position players will be arriving in 3 years or so. Really this looks very good for the Reds.

Young talented corp of major league players, high floor/low ceiling insurance in AAA, and the high ceiling players ready to make their mark when the major league players need to be turned over.

[Benihana]

The organizational weakness is the entire AA team. Other than the pair of bullpen arms (Joseph and Boxberger), there isn't a single player who projects to have an impact at the major league level.

[camisadelgolf]

Nicely done Camisa.

Couple of small changes I'd suggest:

Drew Cisco should be starting rather than coming out of the 'pen, at least to begin with. Maybe slot him in the Dayton rotation over Crabbe. If not, he starts in Billings.

Miguel Rojas and Henry Rodriguez should be starting somewhere in their respective infields, maybe instead of Kahauelio and Richburg, respectively. Tucker Barnhardt should be playing everyday as well, even if it's in Billings (or maybe Dayton after Grandal is bumped to A+).

Unless the Reds draft a MI in the first couple of rounds in 2011, I'd challenge Torreyes and start him in Billings next to Arias. They could make a nice MI combo in the lower minors. I'd also start Waldrop in Billings rather than the AZL. Where is Humberto Valor?

Finally, whoever ends up as the odd man out of the Cincy rotation (Leake?) probably starts in Louisville, possibly along with Chapman. Conversely, I think at least two of the infielders you listed in AAA start the season in Cincy (if Cozart or Valaika start in Cincy, Negron to AAA, and Rojas as starting SS in Carolina).

Candidates for the quickest promotions: Felix Perez, Donnie Joseph, Ryan LaMarre, Yaz Grandal, Kyle Lotzkar, and Ismael Guillon.

Thank you for the suggestions. Here are some thoughts:
I could see Cisco going the Carlos Fisher path, but that's very much in the air. I think he'll ultimately end up a reliever, though.

I agree that Rojas and Rodriguez should be starting somewhere, but it's really difficult to find room for them. I think we could see Rojas, Kahaulelio, and Negron doing a lot of position swapping in AA--particularly on days in which Soto is catching. I think one of Henry Rodriguez, Brodie Greene, Alex Buchholz, and Didi Gregorius is going to learn a utility role and up in the outfield quite a bit.

There isn't room for Barnhart to play everyday. The advantage of having him in Dayton is that their season starts sooner than the rookie leagues', so he could get a little playing time while waiting for the short-season leagues to start. With that said, I think Grandal will quickly be promoted, which would open the door for Barnhart.

The difference between Billings and AZL isn't very big. A lot of times, what decides where a player goes is based on facilities. The Arizona League would be used more for players needing instruction or help with adapting to the life of professional baseball (English language, American culture, etc.).

I figured Humberto Valor would stay in Venezuela for a little while longer, but now that he's 18, maybe he'll play SS in the AZL with Arias switching to 3B.

I figured Leake would start the season in the bullpen with the rotation being made up of Arroyo, Volquez, Cueto, Bailey, and Wood. That puts Chapman in the bullpen, as well. If the Reds re-sign Rhodes, I think that could mean Wood to AAA, though.

I think you're right about at least one of the young infielders starting the season in Cincy, but I have my doubts about two of them making it. I think the leading candidates are Alonso, Valaika, Francisco, Cozart, and Frazier.

[mace]

Tip o' the hat, c'golf, and a few random observations:

Five lefties in the Louisville pen.

I agree that Rojas, HenryR and Barnhart will probably be accommodated full-time somewhere, although I can't say what changes would get that done. Also, Phipps and Samuel Diaz.

That would be a nice roster for Dayton. Very nice. Pitching included.

Would be swell to see Hildenbrandt back in the mix. And Buck.

It looks like Bakersfield might be getting what it deserves.

I don't share the concern about 3B. Corner OF, yes. Possibly 2B, if Hamilton plays short.