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Thread: People need to take a HUGE breath

  1. #1
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    People need to take a HUGE breath

    All I keep reading is how the Reds are sitting on their hands and doing nothing to improve their team and how everyone else in the Central has either made major moves or will make major moves and so on. People, please, put down the rope and relax. Lets remember that outside of Votto and maybe Rolen, most of the starting Reds last year did not play up to their expected abilities. So there is no reason to think that Bruce, Stubbs, Hannigan and phillips won't put up better numbers next season. Right now we have one glaring weak spot and that is LF, and yes I hope Walt does address it, but what if that addressing comes in the form of Chris Heisey or Todd Frazier? I see no reason why Votto can't put up similar numbers, he sure has enough motiviation to do so. Our pitching staff is only going to get better. This year we get a full year of Wood and Leake will be able to go more innings.

    The only team in the central that has done anything are the Brewers, a team that was 14 games back will have a new manager this year and a very close eye on it because if they don't get started fast watch for some major talent to be traded by the trading deadline. No other team has done anything close to improving themselves that much to pass the Reds, so please, relax, enjoy the HSL and remember Rome wasn't built in a day.

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    Re: People need to take a HUGE breath

    Quote Originally Posted by brm7675 View Post
    All I keep reading is how the Reds are sitting on their hands and doing nothing to improve their team and how everyone else in the Central has either made major moves or will make major moves and so on. People, please, put down the rope and relax. Lets remember that outside of Votto and maybe Rolen, most of the starting Reds last year did not play up to their expected abilities. So there is no reason to think that Bruce, Stubbs, Hannigan and phillips won't put up better numbers next season. Right now we have one glaring weak spot and that is LF, and yes I hope Walt does address it, but what if that addressing comes in the form of Chris Heisey or Todd Frazier? I see no reason why Votto can't put up similar numbers, he sure has enough motiviation to do so. Our pitching staff is only going to get better. This year we get a full year of Wood and Leake will be able to go more innings.

    The only team in the central that has done anything are the Brewers, a team that was 14 games back will have a new manager this year and a very close eye on it because if they don't get started fast watch for some major talent to be traded by the trading deadline. No other team has done anything close to improving themselves that much to pass the Reds, so please, relax, enjoy the HSL and remember Rome wasn't built in a day.
    And they brought in 23 Wins

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    Re: People need to take a HUGE breath

    Quote Originally Posted by Hondo View Post
    And they brought in 23 Wins
    How did they bring in 23 wins? They brought in 2 starting pitchers who could fall flat on their faces, they brought in a RP, wow 1 change in what was one of the worse pen's in baseball. Really, if you think that adding those 3 players is that big then more power to you...

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    Re: People need to take a HUGE breath

    Quote Originally Posted by brm7675 View Post
    How did they bring in 23 wins? They brought in 2 starting pitchers who could fall flat on their faces, they brought in a RP, wow 1 change in what was one of the worse pen's in baseball. Really, if you think that adding those 3 players is that big then more power to you...
    http://espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=6427

    13 Wins

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=5883

    10 Wins

    Oh and I guess I was wrong... It was 25 wins if ya count Saito...

    My Bad.

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    Re: People need to take a HUGE breath

    Quote Originally Posted by Hondo View Post
    http://espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=6427

    13 Wins

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=5883

    10 Wins

    Oh and I guess I was wrong... It was 25 wins if ya count Saito...

    My Bad.
    you cant argue logic with retards. they are illogical.

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    Re: People need to take a HUGE breath

    Quote Originally Posted by Hondo View Post
    And they brought in 23 Wins
    They also brought in 22 losses...just sayin'

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    Re: People need to take a HUGE breath

    Quote Originally Posted by Hondo View Post
    http://espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=6427

    13 Wins

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=5883

    10 Wins

    Oh and I guess I was wrong... It was 25 wins if ya count Saito...

    My Bad.
    Well if that isn't a horrible way to look at how many wins were possibly added to the Brewers record.

    According to http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/112441674.html
    The additions of Greinke and Marcum will give Roenicke many options as to how to align his starting rotation. The general thinking is that Greinke, Gallardo and Marcum will line up in some fashion as the top three, with left-handers Randy Wolf and Chris Narveson at the bottom of pack.
    I will try and look at this in terms of win projects based off the last season, while taking into account what was replaced. Brewers starters accounted for a record of 52-56. Of the three brewers expected to to stay in the rotation, they went a combined 12-9 + 13-12 + 14-7 = 39-28. So if we go by saying how many wins were "added" to the team. Then you could replace the other 2 spots in the rotation, which went a combined 13-28 with the combined record of Greinke and Marcum which was 10-14 and 13-8 respectively which is 23-22, effectively "adding" 10 wins only assuming they are replacing the bottom 2 pitchers in the rotation.

    Even this is not a satisfactory way to access what was added to the starting rotation of the brewers lineup, since so many things factor into win numbers than just the starting pitcher. Also, don't even bother quoting how many wins Saito "adds" to the Brewers, because if wins aren't a good way to gauge the impact a starting pitcher has, then wins for a reliever are about 10 times as useless as that. We will just count Saito as one good addition to a very bad bullpen.

    It better to look at it in terms of runs allowed, although that is not ideal because there are still a lot of factors that go into it but it is easy to analyze, and we will look at the stats with only respect to last year. The Brewers starters accounted for a 4.65 ERA, in 921 innings. When you consider the contributions from the three starters expected to remain in the Brewers rotation, the other 2 spots in the rotation accounted for 69 starts, 352 IP, and a 5.21 ERA. When you put Marcum and Greinke into this rotation, along with the remaining starts left over using these average stats for the "6th starter spot" for any spots starts needed due to injury, the team ERA goes down to 4.17 and would have ranked tied for 16th with the Twins and Red Sox. For reference the Reds starting pitchers ERA was 4.05 (13th) last season and the Cardinals was 3.50 (2nd).

    Numbers:
    Code:
    	2010	Wolf	Gallar	Narve	Other	Grein	Marc	Spot Starts	NewRotation
    starts	162	34	31	28	69	33	31	5		162
    IP	921	216	185	168	352	220	195	26		1010
    ERA	4.65	4.17	3.84	4.99	5.21	4.17	3.64	5.21		4.17
    For next season I would predict Marcum staying consistent in his ERA around 3.5-4.00, and I would possibly predict Greinke somewhere in the 4.00 range +/- .5 since I don't want to look at how much more hitters friendly the NL central is compared to the AL central. So, based off this limited evaluation of what the Brewers are replacing, you will probably see them run about middle of the pack in terms of runs allowed, maybe slightly better depending on injuries and performance of the rotation, since there is a big dropoff when it comes to what replaces any of those startes since the Brewers lack the depth that the Reds have in the starting rotation.

  9. #8
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    Re: People need to take a HUGE breath

    Just a little follow up to analyze what wins would have been added had Greinke and Marcum been pitching for the Brewers last season (since I used last years stats, thats what it pretty much is). With the new starters stats of 4.17 ERA and 1010 innings, this will affect the stats of the bullpen as well. With the starters posting more innings this will in turn affect the innings that the bullpen will be required to work. Also assuming a lower workload for the bullpen it can be assumed that the better arms in the pen won't be overused and the not so good arms in the pen will not have to be put into tough situations, allowing their stats to improve slightly.

    In 2010 the Brewers bullpen posted a 4.48 ERA over 518 innings, with my projected stats for the "new" Brewers rotation, the bullpen would only be required to work 429 innings and I will say that the bullpen will see a slight improvement and post a 4.23 ERA. Taking these stats into account the total team ERA will be lowered to 4.19 from 4.59.

    Now I will look at the effect this would have on Runs allowed. Last season the Brewers had 70 unearned runs, and since I am using the same defense that should stay the same. Based off the new team ERA of 4.19, the earned runs allowed would be lowered to 679. So the total runs allowed would come out to 749. With Milwaukee scoring 750 runs last season and using the Pythag, I would expect them to have a 50% win percentage. This would end up 81-81 versus the 77-85 they posted last season, so it could be expected that adding these 2 pitchers would have added a total of 4 wins to the Brewers team last season. The Brewers did perform 2 wins better than their expected Pythag last season so you could additionally add those 2 wins onto this hypothetical record and the wins added would increase to 6.

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    Re: People need to take a HUGE breath

    All this assumes Greinke doesn't improve his numbers from last year.

    Have to figure in the effect of going to the NL with no designated hitter. His ERA should drop below 4 just because of that. If he's playing for a team with a better offense, i.e. more competitive, he may perform a little better himself. May be more loose, less afraid of giving up one run because he knows Fielder, Braun, Hart and Weeks will get them back in the game.

    I'd say the estimates in this thread a little low. Greinke will be around 3.50 and the Brewers may be in the 88 - 90 win territory this year.

    But having said all that, I still like our pitching better. No one, can beat the Reds depth of starting pitching. Not the Giants, not the Phillies, not the Brewers, not the Cards. It's a long season, things happen, you need 6 or 7 starters. I think the Reds will have 3 guys below a 4.0 ERA this year. Maybe 4 if Volquez is ok. The 3 will be Cueto, Wood for sure, and 1 of Arroyo-Leake-Bailey.

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    Re: People need to take a HUGE breath

    I have a horrible feeling that we will not repeat the division in 2011, especially without a legit leadoff man AND another big bat in the lineup. I actually had a dream last night that it was April and we were struggling big time (I know I'm obsessed with Reds baseball). Again, pitching is fine, we need more offense, that is all.

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    Re: People need to take a HUGE breath

    Quote Originally Posted by Hondo View Post
    http://espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=6427

    13 Wins

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=5883

    10 Wins

    Oh and I guess I was wrong... It was 25 wins if ya count Saito...

    My Bad.
    That was last year, on different teams in different leagues.

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    Re: People need to take a HUGE breath

    Quote Originally Posted by will5979 View Post
    I have a horrible feeling that we will not repeat the division in 2011, especially without a legit leadoff man AND another big bat in the lineup. I actually had a dream last night that it was April and we were struggling big time (I know I'm obsessed with Reds baseball). Again, pitching is fine, we need more offense, that is all.
    2010 season stats says otherwise. The 2010 offense had the following line
    .272/.436/.774 and ranked in the top 5 of MLB most of the year. The 2010 defense ended the season with a .988 fielding%, first in all of MLB.

    Now the pitching was another story. They were middle of the road for the season. Now, do I think the pitching will improve in 2011? Probably. With the subtracton of Harang, additions of Wood & Chapman all year, the return of Volkie and Leake being able to pitch more innings, I think the pitching will be fine. This is not even mentioning the depth. The only weak spot could be the bullpen with the loss of Rhodes.

    This does not sound like a team that needs to be adding a lot of pieces. Yes, there are few weak spots(LF, SS, Closer, ACE pitcher), but with a limited budget, you can only do so much. I look forward to an improved 2011 Reds team, with or without changes.

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    Re: People need to take a HUGE breath

    Quote Originally Posted by Red Rover View Post
    2010 season stats says otherwise. The 2010 offense had the following line
    .272/.436/.774 and ranked in the top 5 of MLB most of the year. The 2010 defense ended the season with a .988 fielding%, first in all of MLB.

    Now the pitching was another story. They were middle of the road for the season. Now, do I think the pitching will improve in 2011? Probably. With the subtracton of Harang, additions of Wood & Chapman all year, the return of Volkie and Leake being able to pitch more innings, I think the pitching will be fine. This is not even mentioning the depth. The only weak spot could be the bullpen with the loss of Rhodes.

    This does not sound like a team that needs to be adding a lot of pieces. Yes, there are few weak spots(LF, SS, Closer, ACE pitcher), but with a limited budget, you can only do so much. I look forward to an improved 2011 Reds team, with or without changes.
    That is everyones point though... LF, SS, ACE Pitcher, Closer (maybe)

    If the front office would have addressed one of these weak spots... I don't think people would be wary or upset...

    But with the Reds interested in Scott Posednik... That is not something I am "stoked" about... The guy stole a bunch of bases but got caught an awful lot too... and is a year older... and the main thing he brings his speed, which doesn't get better with age... I would rather have Hesiey for 550 AB's that Podsenik at all...

    I feel BJ Upton is a low risk - high ceiling possible player who is available... Would be great in Left for Defense and I would hope the change of scenery and being around this offense would help him back to his .380 OBP days... Guy has extra bases all over the place and would knock 40 Doubles, smack 20 HR, and Steal 40-50 bases for the Reds IMO...

    Cutting the K's is a major issue but like I said, if he can get back to the .383-.386 OBP from a few years ago... He might be an ALL-Star

  15. #14
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    Re: People need to take a HUGE breath

    Quote Originally Posted by Red Rover View Post
    2010 season stats says otherwise. The 2010 offense had the following line
    .272/.436/.774 and ranked in the top 5 of MLB most of the year. The 2010 defense ended the season with a .988 fielding%, first in all of MLB.

    Now the pitching was another story. They were middle of the road for the season. Now, do I think the pitching will improve in 2011? Probably. With the subtracton of Harang, additions of Wood & Chapman all year, the return of Volkie and Leake being able to pitch more innings, I think the pitching will be fine. This is not even mentioning the depth. The only weak spot could be the bullpen with the loss of Rhodes.

    This does not sound like a team that needs to be adding a lot of pieces. Yes, there are few weak spots(LF, SS, Closer, ACE pitcher), but with a limited budget, you can only do so much. I look forward to an improved 2011 Reds team, with or without changes.
    I would challenge the 3 of those. To me the only "need" issue is LF. I believe Janish can more then handle the SS position and do enough at bat. We have ACE pitchers, in fact we are overloaded in pitching and we have a closer and others who can do that job in house already. Find a good LF with a strong bat and we are set.

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    Re: People need to take a HUGE breath

    Quote Originally Posted by brm7675 View Post
    I would challenge the 3 of those. To me the only "need" issue is LF. I believe Janish can more then handle the SS position and do enough at bat. We have ACE pitchers, in fact we are overloaded in pitching and we have a closer and others who can do that job in house already. Find a good LF with a strong bat and we are set.
    Oh I thought Heisey could handle LF and it was "Not" a Team "Need" issue for 2011?

    Better read your posts...


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