2011 Cairo projections: Reds are fringe contenders

[Will M]

Apparently some Egyptian guy thinks the Cards & Brewers are better than the Reds. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...fs-sweet-spot/

Reds are listed as fringe contenders & predicted to win 82-87 games.

The Cards & Brewers are listed as legitimate contenders & predicted to win 87-92 games.

[Caveat Emperor]

Not surprising -- projections always seem to favor the teams with established players vs. younger players still on the upswing of their careers.

[Mario-Rijo]

How dare Miguel, I think we should designate him for assignment.

[mth123]

Guess I Walk Like an Egyptian because I agree with these at this point, though I'd move St. Louis down to the Reds level with both clearly behind Milwaukee.

[RichRed]

I also think that until the Reds show that they can be successful for multiple years consecutively, a lot of "experts" will look at the 2010 Reds as a bit of a fluke.

[Unassisted]

Regardless of whether it's justified, I have zero problem with the Reds not being the automatic favorite to win the division. Keeping expectations low makes it easier for the team to exceed them.

[Ghosts of 1990]

Nice find Will. This is consistent with what I believe about us this upcoming season. I think we'll be a solid team--not necessarily a playoff team. We might miss out and have to reassess some things heading into 2012 to get back on track. Someone might get dealt who we are not expecting (Homer, Leake, etc.) to get us that missing piece around the deadline. Could be a year like 2000.

[mth123]

I also think that until the Reds show that they can be successful for multiple years consecutively, a lot of "experts" will look at the 2010 Reds as a bit of a fluke.

2010 had a lot of aging vets far outplaying expectations (Rolen, Hernandez, Cairo, Rhodes) and a couple of "older than most think" kids (Janish, Hanigan) outperforming what their minor league production suggests we should expect (and IMO both are probably too old to establish these as new levels of performance to be repeated). Throw in the high probablilty that the team won't produce the league MVP again, and even in a good year we'll probably see a drop in production there, and you can see why there would be an expectation of a drop in production overall. Its true that some younger guys like Chapman, Bruce and Stubbs may take a step forward, but at best that allows the team to tread water. Since they really showed no ability to play with the better teams in the league, and some of the weaklings in their division that they beat up on last year have gotten better, I think a step back is a reasonable expectation. The team needs to add some pieces from outside the organization to not only move forward, but just hold on to what they achieved in 2010 IMO.

[Scrap Irony]

Two things:

1) This is obviously a projection as the team is right now, not as it will be in three or four months. CAIRO works best, as most projections do, with more and more information.

2) The Reds, as currently constructed (with holes in LF, SS, back-up OF, back-up MI) are projected to be only a win and a half behind the Brewers.

3) Young teams, as stated above, are difficult to project. Guess who has the youngest team among the three legitimate contenders in the NL Central?

[Hoosier Red]

Guess I Walk Like an Egyptian because I agree with these at this point, though I'd move St. Louis down to the Reds level with both clearly behind Milwaukee.

I simply don't see it. I think the moves Milwaukee made got them in the conversation. Maybe on an even level with the Reds and Cards, but as the clear leader. No way.

Last year the Brew Crew went 77-85 and their Pythag record was 76-86.

If we count Greinke replacing Randy Wolf(who I believe is a free agent) and Marcum replacing Dave Bush, the switch Yuniesky Betancourt out with Alcides Escobar and Lorenzo Cain out for replacement level production. That's a net gain of about 7 wins from last year's WAR which gets them just above .500.

The Reds went 91-71 and their Pythag was 92-70. So far the losses from last year are Aaron Harang (-1.2 WAR) and Arthur Rhodes 1.6 WAR. So essentially absent other factors, the Reds are about a half game worse off than last year if we go by last year's stats alone.

[Hoosier Red]

2010 had a lot of aging vets far outplaying expectations (Rolen, Hernandez, Cairo, Rhodes) and a couple of "older than most think" kids (Janish, Hanigan) outperforming what their minor league production suggests we should expect (and IMO both are probably too old to establish these as new levels of performance to be repeated). Throw in the high probablilty that the team won't produce the league MVP again, and even in a good year we'll probably see a drop in production there, and you can see why there would be an expectation of a drop in production overall. Its true that some younger guys like Chapman, Bruce and Stubbs may take a step forward, but at best that allows the team to tread water. Since they really showed no ability to play with the better teams in the league, and some of the weaklings in their division that they beat up on last year have gotten better, I think a step back is a reasonable expectation. The team needs to add some pieces from outside the organization to not only move forward, but just hold on to what they achieved in 2010 IMO.

I think you're perhaps overestimating the amount of impact the veterans over performance had on the team and underestimating the amount of impact the improvement of young players like Stubbs and Bruce would mean.

When looking at their WAR(and yes I know this is not a perfect stat) from last year, as compared to say a 5 year average, let's say Rolen drops off 1.6 wins, Rhodes is of course gone, Cairo reverts back to replacement level, and Hernandez drops off by a win or so. That all adds up to about 4.5 wins.

Isn't it possible/probable that this can be made up by improvements from Stubbs, Bruce and more innings for guys like Chapman?

[Cooper]

Quick and dirty. The Reds are due a correction related to their BaBIP rates in both pitching and batting. Votto hit .362 BaBIP. Arroyo's pitching BaBIP was .245. I'm guessing that both these fellas are gonna see a correction.

My only question is -should these rates be park adjusted??

[PuffyPig]

2010 had a lot of aging vets far outplaying expectations (Rolen, Hernandez, Cairo, Rhodes) and a couple of "older than most think" kids (Janish, Hanigan) outperforming what their minor league production suggests we should expect (and IMO both are probably too old to establish these as new levels of performance to be repeated). Throw in the high probablilty that the team won't produce the league MVP again, and even in a good year we'll probably see a drop in production there, and you can see why there would be an expectation of a drop in production overall. Its true that some younger guys like Chapman, Bruce and Stubbs may take a step forward, but at best that allows the team to tread water. Since they really showed no ability to play with the better teams in the league, and some of the weaklings in their division that they beat up on last year have gotten better, I think a step back is a reasonable expectation. The team needs to add some pieces from outside the organization to not only move forward, but just hold on to what they achieved in 2010 IMO.

While I agree Rolen exceeded expectations (mainly due to health), and a few others did too, I don't thibnk you are counting the expected continued improving performance of most of our young players.

It would surprise many if most of Cueto, Bailey, Woods, Leake, Massett, Burton, Bray and Chapman to name just the young pitching, to take steps forward. There's a lot of upside in those arms, more than any of the other contenders in the Central, where the starting talent is more established. Those pitchers were good enough last year to get us to 90 wins, and there is more likelihood they will, as a group, be better next year.

[PuffyPig]

If we count Greinke replacing Randy Wolf(who I believe is a free agent)

Wolf is not a FA.

[TheNext44]

Two things:

1) This is obviously a projection as the team is right now, not as it will be in three or four months. CAIRO works best, as most projections do, with more and more information.

2) The Reds, as currently constructed (with holes in LF, SS, back-up OF, back-up MI) are projected to be only a win and a half behind the Brewers.

3) Young teams, as stated above, are difficult to project. Guess who has the youngest team among the three legitimate contenders in the NL Central?

Actually that's three things.

But here is a fourth...

According to this method, the Reds, Brewers and Cards could all be projected to win 87 games, and have the results they posted. (look at the details) It's a very sloppy put together method that really doesn't say much that people don't already know.