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Thread: Arb Season

  1. #1
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Arb Season

    Today starts the filing arbitration period in MLB. The team and those players who file will exchange figures on January 18th. This is a key time for the Reds with Votto, Cueto, Volquez, Bray and Burton all eligible. I have a feeling that the Reds are probably turning their attention toward these players and getting ready for Spring Training at this point and making additions to the roster is now a secondary consideration. The figures exchanged here may give some indication about how likely the Reds may be in their ability to extend Votto and Cueto and reaching final salary numbers for these guys probably will determine whether the Reds will be able to bring anyone in with a Spring Training deal. Hopefully, the team won't be forced to dump salary in the spring if the outcome is in excess of the Reds targets.

    I've been impatient with the team in wanting some improvements, but I believe that the uncertainty of this process has been the primary hold-up in the Reds making any additions to the roster.

    Anyone with any guesses as to how it goes? My prediction:

    Name (Amount Player will ask for - Amount Reds will Offer)
    Votto ($8,500,000 - $6,500,000)
    Cueto ($4,000,000 - $2,500,000)
    Volquez ($3,000,000 - $2,000,000)
    Bray ($1,500,000 - $750,000)
    Burton ($850,000 - $640,000)
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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  3. #2
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Arb Season

    A tweet about Arbitration filings here, is "Joey Bats" Joey Votto?

    @SBerthiaumeESPN 119 filed for arbitration today including Prince, J. Hamilton, Papelbon & Joey Bats. about 12 hours ago
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

    --Woody Hayes

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    Re: Arb Season

    I'm guessing Votto asks for $10 million. Current MVP, two phenomenal seasons in a row, face of a winning (as of 2010) franchise-- he may be worth it. I think the Reds will counter with $8 million.

    Volquez asks for $4 million, but the Reds counter with only $2.75 million citing injuries and ineffectiveness. (I think the Reds could win this one and may go all the way through the process to do so.)

    Cueto will ask for $4 million and Reds will counter with $3 million, IMO. They'll likely settle early with an LTC in the neighborhood of four years and $35 million before the start of the season.

    Burton will ask for $1 million, but the Reds will play hardball, countering with only $550,000. (And likely win. Burton's been hurt for, like, eight years now.)

    Bray will ask for $2 million, but the Reds may want to take the hard road with him as well, offering only $750,000. They may point to his TJ surgery and lost season, as well as the half season he had in 2010.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
    -- Christy Matthewson
    "Show me a good loser and I'll show you an idiot."
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  5. #4
    Member membengal's Avatar
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    Re: Arb Season

    My least favorite part of the baseball season is arbitration season. Just a crappy process all around for team, player and fans.

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    Re: Arb Season

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Burton will ask for $1 million, but the Reds will play hardball, countering with only $550,000. (And likely win. Burton's been hurt for, like, eight years now.)
    Burton signed last week for $750,000.

  7. #6
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Arb Season

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    I'm guessing Votto asks for $10 million. Current MVP, two phenomenal seasons in a row, face of a winning (as of 2010) franchise-- he may be worth it. I think the Reds will counter with $8 million.

    Volquez asks for $4 million, but the Reds counter with only $2.75 million citing injuries and ineffectiveness. (I think the Reds could win this one and may go all the way through the process to do so.)

    Cueto will ask for $4 million and Reds will counter with $3 million, IMO. They'll likely settle early with an LTC in the neighborhood of four years and $35 million before the start of the season.

    Burton will ask for $1 million, but the Reds will play hardball, countering with only $550,000. (And likely win. Burton's been hurt for, like, eight years now.)

    Bray will ask for $2 million, but the Reds may want to take the hard road with him as well, offering only $750,000. They may point to his TJ surgery and lost season, as well as the half season he had in 2010.
    It always helps to put down your numbers year by year in writing when figuring LTC for arb guys. If Cueto went to arb the next three years he might make 20 million....if he continues to improve. No way he is worth a 4 yr, 35 million contract...at least with his asking price of 4 million for 2011 that you provide.

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    Re: Arb Season

    I actually meant to hit 2 and not 3 on the keyboard, figuring he makes strides and Cincinnati is willing to take care of him for the security of a quality pitcher and cost certainty.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
    -- Christy Matthewson
    "Show me a good loser and I'll show you an idiot."
    -- Leo Durocher

  9. #8
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Arb Season

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    I actually meant to hit 2 and not 3 on the keyboard, figuring he makes strides and Cincinnati is willing to take care of him for the security of a quality pitcher and cost certainty.
    That explains it. I'd sign up for that.

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    Re: Arb Season

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Burton signed last week for $750,000.
    Pretty close to halfway in the middle, then, of player and team figure.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
    -- Christy Matthewson
    "Show me a good loser and I'll show you an idiot."
    -- Leo Durocher

  11. #10
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Arb Season

    http://www.facebook.com/pages/Reds-R...33794710005587
    "John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer hears from some player agents that Joey Votto will submit an arbitration number between $8.5-$9.5MM, while the Reds' counter-offer will be around $7MM. Back in August, MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith suggested that Votto would ask for $7MM, but since then Votto has added a playoff appearance and the NL MVP Award to his resume."

  12. #11
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Arb Season

    I could see the Reds and Votto coming to a 3 year deal before the hearing -- something like 3/33 at $8M, $11M, $14M. No extra commitment from Joey, but cost certainty for both.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  13. #12
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Arb Season

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I could see the Reds and Votto coming to a 3 year deal before the hearing -- something like 3/33 at $8M, $11M, $14M. No extra commitment from Joey, but cost certainty for both.
    The cost certainty is nice, but if I'm running the front office I go year to year if unable to tack at least one post-arb year onto the deal. Not disagreeing with you since it is just a prediction, but I wouldn't do that.

  14. #13
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Arb Season

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    A tweet about Arbitration filings here, is "Joey Bats" Joey Votto?
    Joey Bats is Jose Batista.

  15. #14
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Arb Season

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    The cost certainty is nice, but if I'm running the front office I go year to year if unable to tack at least one post-arb year onto the deal. Not disagreeing with you since it is just a prediction, but I wouldn't do that.
    The reason to lock up Votto for his arb years is if the Reds think salaries will be going up in the next three years, which might be the case. They certainly went up this off-season. But otherwise, I agree, there's not much other reason for the Reds to do it.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  16. #15
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Arb Season

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Joey Bats is Jose Batista.
    Ah, thanks.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

    --Woody Hayes


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