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Thread: FanGraphs Chat 01/05/2010[sic]

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    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    FanGraphs Chat 01/05/2010[sic]

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...hs-chat-12510/
    Here are the Reds highlights:
    12:24
    [Comment From Dane]
    I love the new FanGraphs Leader board. Found this yesterday . . . Joey Votto's infield flyball rate last year was 0.0%. He hit NO infield flys!
    12:24
    Dave Cameron: Mauer did this a couple of years ago too, I think. It's crazy.
    12:34
    [Comment From Captain]
    best/worst deal or extension of this offseason?
    12:34
    Dave Cameron: The Bronson Arroyo contract still looks awful to me. Aaron Harang for $3 million to San Diego was a freaking steal.
    12:37
    [Comment From Chris Cwik]
    Now that the Reds have announced Chapman will remain in the pen, how does that affect your outlook on their rotation? Still the best in the Central?
    12:37
    Dave Cameron: Maybe a touch behind the other two teams, but I still am bullish on their quantity of good arms.
    12:44
    [Comment From camisadelgolf]
    Can you think of an example of a pitcher whose fastball had a noticeable decline in velocity but became more effective due to the increased movement?
    12:44
    Dave Cameron: We don't have historical measures for movement, but Randy Johnson became a better pitcher when he stopped throwing 100 and started throwing strikes.
    I might start a contest with myself to see how many consecutive weeks I can get a question in the chat.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: FanGraphs Chat 01/05/2010[sic]

    I was in there too. Go me.
    [Comment From Rick]
    To what extent do you think HOF debates come off as about which measures to use given an accepted set of criteria, when the real disagreement lies at a more fundamental level of what criteria should be used to begin with?
    12:33
    Dave Cameron: I do think there's a pretty large percentage of people talking past each other. There are some folks who just have no interest in systematic ways of thinking, and trying to convince them to use a consistent set of rules to guide their voting is just never going to fly.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: FanGraphs Chat 01/05/2010[sic]

    Rick, I often see you on various baseball websites, and it sometimes gives me the urge to give you a virtual nod.

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    Member Superdude's Avatar
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    Re: FanGraphs Chat 01/05/2010[sic]

    That's nuts about Votto. A lot of people, including me, thought his batting average would drop a few years ago due to his high BABIP, but an infield flyball percentage of zero is pretty good evidence that he's giving away much fewer easy outs than the average hitter.

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    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: FanGraphs Chat 01/05/2010[sic]

    I can understand how Arroyo's extension seems foolish to some.

    I can't understand how Harang's 3 Million is a steal....how much should he have gotten?

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    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: FanGraphs Chat 01/05/2010[sic]

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    I can understand how Arroyo's extension seems foolish to some.

    I can't understand how Harang's 3 Million is a steal....how much should he have gotten?
    Yea, that's a head scratcher to me too. Of course if Harang bounces back to his former self, it's a steal, but IMO, the odds are against that. He's more likely to have a Fogg like season.

    Berkman's deal seems incredible risky to me. 8 million for a guy you know is going to be a huge defensive liability and also he had his bat totally disappear. He's getting old. Unless I am missing some information (did he have an injury that might have healed over the winter). I think Arroyo's deal is much less riskier, even though it is for more total $$ and years.

    Oh yea, and there's that deal the Nats gave to a former Philly OF.. How can they say Arroyo's deal is worse than that one?
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: FanGraphs Chat 01/05/2010[sic]

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    Yea, that's a head scratcher to me too. Of course if Harang bounces back to his former self, it's a steal, but IMO, the odds are against that. He's more likely to have a Fogg like season.
    If Harang keeps the ball in the park, he is going to be a good pitcher. Petco is going to help him do that quite a bit.

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    Joey Votto Fangirl HeatherC1212's Avatar
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    Re: FanGraphs Chat 01/05/2010[sic]

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    Oh yea, and there's that deal the Nats gave to a former Philly OF.. How can they say Arroyo's deal is worse than that one?
    IMO, anyone who thinks Bronson's deal is worse than Jayson Werth's deal may not be playing with a full deck. Wow.
    "I tried to play golf, but I found out I wasn't very good." -Joey Votto on his offseason hobby search

    An MLB.com reporter asked what one thing Votto couldnít do. ďI canít skate or play hockey,Ē Votto said. ďWell, I can skate ... but I canít stop.Ē

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    Member redsfandan's Avatar
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    Re: FanGraphs Chat 01/05/2010[sic]

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    I can understand how Arroyo's extension seems foolish to some.

    I can't understand how Harang's 3 Million is a steal....how much should he have gotten?
    It can be debated whether Arroyo should've been extended. But, if you look at the contract, it's not a bad deal for the Reds. I wouldn't have expected it to be structured in a way that helps the team so much.
    "Now that's a real shame when folks be throwin' away a perfectly good white boy like that."

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    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: FanGraphs Chat 01/05/2010[sic]

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    I can understand how Arroyo's extension seems foolish to some.

    I can't understand how Harang's 3 Million is a steal....how much should he have gotten?
    I love Cameron, think he's the best of the advanced stat writers out there, but to be honest, this smells like a defensive reaction to the whole value of DIPS (defense independant stats) argument.

    Harang vs. Arroyo really encapsulated the argument into two pitchers pitching for the same team at the same time. Harang was providing solid DIPS, high K rate, low BB rate, decent HR rate, but was getting hit hard for the last few years. According to the DIPS fans, he was due for a positive correction and a good year each year. Arroyo, on the other hand, was providing weak DIPS, but solid ERA and wins, so according to DIPS fans, he was due for a negative correction and some down years.

    However, as we all know, Harang continuted to decline, or at least not improve, while Arroyo continued to succeed and provide some excellent production.

    These results really don't mean much in terms of the validity of the value of DIPS, as it was just two pitchers. But I think some DIPS fans are still trying to fight this war, still arguing that Arroyo will have a negative correction, and that Harang will be an effective pitcher. It seems like Cameron is one of those based on those statements.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

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    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: FanGraphs Chat 01/05/2010[sic]

    Quote Originally Posted by redsfandan View Post
    It can be debated whether Arroyo should've been extended. But, if you look at the contract, it's not a bad deal for the Reds. I wouldn't have expected it to be structured in a way that helps the team so much.
    You have to wonder if Cameron even knows about the deferred money, which was the key to the extension. I can't imagine anyone knowing about that and thinking that the extension was "awful."
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

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    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: FanGraphs Chat 01/05/2010[sic]

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    You have to wonder if Cameron even knows about the deferred money, which was the key to the extension. I can't imagine anyone knowing about that and thinking that the extension was "awful."
    Dave is not an Arroyo fan and sees him as a back end starter. The deferred money is still an overpay in his eyes.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: FanGraphs Chat 01/05/2010[sic]

    But I think some DIPS fans are still trying to fight this war, still arguing that Arroyo will have a negative correction, and that Harang will be an effective pitcher.
    Yep. Still. It's been years.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: FanGraphs Chat 01/05/2010[sic]

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    I love Cameron, think he's the best of the advanced stat writers out there, but to be honest, this smells like a defensive reaction to the whole value of DIPS (defense independant stats) argument.

    These results really don't mean much in terms of the validity of the value of DIPS, as it was just two pitchers. But I think some DIPS fans are still trying to fight this war, still arguing that Arroyo will have a negative correction, and that Harang will be an effective pitcher. It seems like Cameron is one of those based on those statements.
    Dave is a big proponent of evaluating pitchers based upon their peripherals and he also considers projection systems useful. He likely sees a guy with above average krates and bb rates going to a pitchers environment. Rather than fighting a battle, his opinion is very consistent with his philosophy. If you asked him, he'd argue there isn't a battle. DIPs theory has already carried the day
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: FanGraphs Chat 01/05/2010[sic]

    Arroyo hasn't consistently outperformed his FIP. He has Pounded the strike zone and benefitted from his defense the last two seasons.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner


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