FanGraphs Chat 01/05/2010[sic]

[TheNext44]

Dave is a big proponent of evaluating pitchers based upon their peripherals and he also considers projection systems useful. He likely sees a guy with above average krates and bb rates going to a pitchers environment. Rather than fighting a battle, his opinion is very consistent with his philosophy. If you asked him, he'd argue there isn't a battle. DIPs theory has already carried the day

I would think that no matter how much you believe in DIPS and projection systems, both Arroyo and Harang have shown that DIPS just doesn't work well in projecting their performance for long enough, that a reasonable person would at this point have to admit that they can't use DIPS to accurately to predict these guys future performance.

This reminds me of a friend who to this day is convinced that The Jam would out sell Journey if just given the same breaks. No matter how much you believe that the Jam is a better band, or even a more commercial band, at some point you have to concede that Journey is always going to outsell The Jam. The actual results are just too strong to ignore.

[kaldaniels]

Arroyo hasn't consistently outperformed his FIP. He has Pounded the strike zone and benefitted from his defense the last two seasons.

How bad has Harang been the past 2 seasons then, given the same defense?

[redsfandan]

You have to wonder if Cameron even knows about the deferred money, which was the key to the extension. I can't imagine anyone knowing about that and thinking that the extension was "awful."

Exactly. I didn't want him to get an extension either. But when those are the terms? Cmon. Some of the young guys in the rotation would likely fetch more in a trade anyway. As good as Cameron is, for him to call the extension "awful" just means he's lost a little credibility in my eyes. I have to hand it to Walt though. He's made some nice contracts.

[edabbs44]

How bad has Harang been the past 2 seasons then, given the same defense?

I think I read somewhere that Gomes was Harang's personal LFer.

[jojo]

I would think that no matter how much you believe in DIPS and projection systems, both Arroyo and Harang have shown that DIPS just doesn't work well in projecting their performance for long enough, that a reasonable person would at this point have to admit that they can't use DIPS to accurately to predict these guys future performance.

This reminds me of a friend who to this day is convinced that The Jam would out sell Journey if just given the same breaks. No matter how much you believe that the Jam is a better band, or even a more commercial band, at some point you have to concede that Journey is always going to outsell The Jam. The actual results are just too strong to ignore.

Has Harang's ERA consistently been out out of whack with his FIP-when not injured?

Arroyo has had two seasons where his ERA has outperformed his FIP and they have been seasons in which his BABIP has been significantly below his career norms and he's essentially induced contact at much greater rates than his career norms (at significantly below average rates) while playing in front of great defenses.

There hasn't really been as much pudding as suggested by the above argument that there's solid proof.

[kaldaniels]

How does the great defense of 2009-10 come into play when evaluating other pitchers on the staff then...especially as asked earlier, Harang?

[RedsManRick]

I can understand how Arroyo's extension seems foolish to some.

I can't understand how Harang's 3 Million is a steal....how much should he have gotten?

Well, if you're a FIP believer (and I know many around here aren't), Harang put up a 4.60 FIP last year. Arroyo? 4.61.

So if you believe in FIP as a predictor of future ERA, you're looking at two very similar, mediocre pitchers, one of whom will get $13M and one of whom will get $3M.

Harang has always been a flyball pitcher. He's maintained a 2:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Pecto will do wonders for keeping more of his flyballs in the ballpark. I would not be surprised in the least if Harang had a better ERA next year than Arroyo. I'm not saying I'd bet on it, but I think there's a reasonable chance of it happening.

The Arroyo is really a 3.90 ERA pitcher argument is predicated on the belief that he can sustain a BABIP that is equal or better than the best pitchers of all-time at inducing poor conduct, such as Mo Rivera. I can appreciate that he's better than most pitchers are inducing poor contact, but find it very hard to believe he's historically great.

[lollipopcurve]

Arroyo was a much, much better pitcher than Harang in 2010. If you watched them, this would have been drop-dead obvious. In the overwhelming majority of his starts, Harang simply could not throw anything except his fastball with any effectiveness.

So if you believe in FIP as a predictor of future ERA, you're looking at two very similar, mediocre pitchers, one of whom will get $13M and one of whom will get $3M.

In reality, you're looking at one pitcher who sat out most of the year and another who took the ball every time it was his turn, like he does every year.

The Belisle-Arroyo comparisons being drawn a few offseasons ago were pretty ludicrous. But trying to say Harang is as good as Arroyo now trumps those, I have to say.

[TheNext44]

Well, if you're a FIP believer (and I know many around here aren't), Harang put up a 4.60 FIP last year. Arroyo? 4.61.

So if you believe in FIP as a predictor of future ERA, you're looking at two very similar, mediocre pitchers, one of whom will get $13M and one of whom will get $3M.

Harang has always been a flyball pitcher. He's maintained a 2:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Pecto will do wonders for keeping more of his flyballs in the ballpark. I would not be surprised in the least if Harang had a better ERA next year than Arroyo. I'm not saying I'd bet on it, but I think there's a reasonable chance of it happening.

The Arroyo is really a 3.90 ERA pitcher argument is predicated on the belief that he can sustain a BABIP that is equal or better than the best pitchers of all-time at inducing poor conduct, such as Mo Rivera. I can appreciate that he's better than most pitchers are inducing poor contact, but find it very hard to believe he's historically great.

Nice analysis. Lots of good points.

But my only point is that for the last three seasons, people have made similar strong arguments about why Harang will be better the next season and Arroyo will be worse the next season, and each year it's been the reverse. It might be time to just admit that these guys are outliers when it comes to predicting their performance.

[Big Klu]

I would think that no matter how much you believe in DIPS and projection systems, both Arroyo and Harang have shown that DIPS just doesn't work well in projecting their performance for long enough, that a reasonable person would at this point have to admit that they can't use DIPS to accurately to predict these guys future performance.

This reminds me of a friend who to this day is convinced that The Jam would out sell Journey if just given the same breaks. No matter how much you believe that the Jam is a better band, or even a more commercial band, at some point you have to concede that Journey is always going to outsell The Jam. The actual results are just too strong to ignore.

Don't stop believin'.

[redsfandan]

So if you believe in FIP as a predictor of future ERA, you're looking at two very similar, mediocre pitchers, one of whom will get $13M and one of whom will get $3M.

Huh?

[WebScorpion]

Huh?

I think his numbers are $6.5Mil in 2011, $7Mil in 2012, $6.5Mil in 2013, and the rest in deferred payments through 2020, so yeah I'm flummoxed by the $13Mil statement too.

[redsfandan]

I think his numbers are $6.5Mil in 2011, $7Mil in 2012, $6.5Mil in 2013, and the rest in deferred payments through 2020, so yeah I'm flummoxed by the $13Mil statement too.

Yep, I think people are thinking of his last contract:

2 years/$25M (2009-10), plus 2011 club option
-signed extension with Cincinnati 2/07
-$2.5M signing bonus (paid 2008)
-09:$9.5M, 10:$11M, 11:$11M club option ($2M buyout)
-2011 option may increase to $13M based on IP
-agreed to give up 2008 performance bonuses as part of deal
-Cincinnati exercised 2011 option at $11.5M 11/3/10

which was replaced by his new contract:

3 years/$35M (2011-13)
-signed extension with Cincinnati 12/4/10, reworking option year in previous contract
-$15M deferred without interest, paid through 2021, reducing present-day AAV to $28.9M
-11:$6.5M, 12:$7M, 13:$6.5M
-if traded, deferrals are voided and paid up-front

He's not getting $13M this year. And this is why the extension doesn't bother me as much anymore. Low salaries each year (providing some financial flexibility for the Reds) plus deferred money reducing the overall value of the contract. A team friendly contract and probably less than he would've received as a FA. But the escalator clause means that he's more likely to be a Red for the duration of the contract.