Pick which two starting pitchers YOU would leave out of the 2011 rotation. Then let us know why & what you would do with them. AAA? Bullpen? Trade? If you want to trade a pitcher state a reasonable trade or two. Just to clarify: its not what you think the Reds will do. Its what YOU would do if you ran the team.
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My choices:
1) Arroyo is in. Fairly straightforward.
2) Wood is in. The team controls him for six more years. He is a lefty. He can give us 200 innings in 2011. He had a great rookie season.
3) Leake is in. I suspect most will pick to send Leake to AAA. I would keep him in Cincinnati. I think he got beat up late in Cincinnati because of arm fatigue. The team shut him down which was a good move. Now lets build his arm up a bit. So why not do that in AAA? I think Leake isn't going to learn much in AAA. I think he is a major league pitcher & needs to learn here in the bigs. He has a fantastic mentor in Bronson who has a similar style. The two are close. Bronson took Mike on vacation with him this offseason.
4) Cueto is in. IMO he is our 2nd best pitcher plus he still has some upside.
5) The last spot goes to Homer. why Homer & not Volquez? The Reds control Homer for 4 more years & Volquez (and Cueto and Arroyo) only for three more. Its a bit looking ahead. The team is not bursting with pitching in the minors. I wouldn't want to have 3 starters in the rotation that all leave at the same time. I know its three years away but a smaller market team like the Reds needs to plan ahead.
Both Homer & Volquez are a bit enigmatic. Both have TOR potential but haven't gotten there. I think Homer has more chance to get there than Volquez. Thats just my opinion.
6) Volquez is traded for a outfielder (if possible). David Murphy seems an odd man out in Texas with Cruz in RF, Hamilton in CF & Young at DH. He'd be a target. I'm not sure I'd trade Volquez stright up for him due to Volquez's potential. I'd try to get Murphy for less (say Ondrusek). Maybe we trade Volquez, Gomes & prospects/bullpen arms for Cruz. The Rangers could move Hamilton to RF & use Murphy/Gomes in LF. They would get a potential TOR starter plus other players they might need. The Reds sure have a lot of guys stacking up in AAA. Nick Swisher seems to be a reasonable target in a Volquez trade (although the money wouldn't work). An even better move is to trade Cordero for Swisher/Fukodome/expensive outfielder & move Volquez to the bullpen. We would truly have a 'nasty boys II' pen if Walt could pull that off.
7) Chapman goes to the pen in 2011. Its been discussed a lot here. Three reasons stand out. One is that we have seven guys for five spots. Two is that I don't want two innings challenged guys in the rotation. Three is that we know he can be a light out reliever yet we don't know how effective a starter he can be.
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If they're confident Willis can be very solid arm out of the bullpen I'd send Chapman to AAA to work as a starter.
The last spot I'd have Bailey and Leake compete for it. If Bailey wins Leake goes to AAA if Leake wins Bailey goes to the bullpen.
Champan, he's in the Reds pen.
Volquez, I think his command keeps him out of the top 5. He starts in AAA and keeps working on it, and if Homer, Leake, etc. falters, he comes up.
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I'd rather listen to Kelch read the phone book than suffer through Thom Brennaman's attempt to make every instance on the field the most important event since the discovery of manned space flight. -westofyou
I would put Chapman and Bailey in the pen for 2011. It allows both to throw full effort 100% of the time and use their best asset--nasty stuff--to the greatest advantage. Either one can be moved back into the rotation if needed.
Leake is the only one I'm sure of, and that's just because I think he has some things he could learn in AAA. The other guy would become trade bait. I don't want to see Volquez convert to relief just yet. The same goes for Chapman, but if he can prepare to become a starter while in the bullpen, so be it. Cueto's salary relief could come in handy, and who knows how much longer he'll be effective anyway? If someone's willing to pay a good price for Bailey, I'd be willing to flip him in a deal for an impact bat in left field. I think Wood may be overrated on RZ, and it wouldn't bother me as much as others to see him go.
Chapman has already shown value in another role, so let him stay in the pen for now. Leake has not shown enough to warrant a big league spot at this point in time. It would be between Leake and Homer for the last spot, but Homer showed a lot towards the end of last year, whereas Leake was a good story, but his number really were nothing special.
Don't get me wrong, Leake will be a very, very good MLB pitcher.
"Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.
My expecatations for Willis are zero. Detroit gave this guy every chance to rediscover himself and he never could get it together. Got no problem with a minor league contract and am pulling for the former Mudcat but I believe he is done.Originally Posted by kbrake
I'm going to call out redsmetz as the jerk who didn't follow directions in the voting. I DEMAND TO KNOW YOUR OTHER OMISSION!
There was some talk about a six-man rotation in Boston last year. I'd try that, although I also wouldn't have brought Arroyo back in the first place, or I would have tried to move somebody if I did. I just can't figure out why you'd keep six legit starters with holes elsewhere and solid depth waiting in Louisville.
I would leave Chapman out of the rotation and in the bullpen. I think his future is as a closer, and he may get that opportunity this season. The other will depend a lot on Spring Training and what transpires there. There are often circumstances that make these decisions for you. Injury, trades, effectiveness, etc. I think that Travis Wood needs to be in the rotation as he is a lefty and based on his effectiveness last season. If there are no injuries/trades, I think the final spot will boil down to Leake and Bailey. The Reds definitely are in a good position with an abundance of good starting pitching
Simple, the two who aren't quite ready for a full MLB workload. Chapman and Leake.
I took out Bailey and Chapman. I love swing and miss guys, and power arms for the pen. I could see Volquez going to the pen after about 20 starts, and moving Bailey in, to save Volquez's arm since he's on the mend.
This. Though I'd amend it to Leake and Chapman while looking to deal at least one starter (and a couple prospects)-- I'd prefer Leake, though, really, anyone aside from Chapman would be okay, depending on return-- looking for a cleanup LFer with a few years left on a small-ish contract.
I'm not ready to make my decision on this. But I bet EV makes it in the rotation....he was the Game 1 starter....the Reds think highly of him for sure.
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