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Thread: 35 Active Hall of Famers?

  1. #1
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    35 Active Hall of Famers?

    Nate Silver, NY Times columnist, wrote an article (http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...-too-small/?hp) on the HoF and its guidelines and poor choices of 1930 members. While that's interesting, IMO, the most interesting part of the article was the following:

    Other than the indulgences that the veterans committee made for players from the Depression era, the number of Hall of Famers is reasonably consistent from the birth of the American League in 1901 onward — provided that one accounts for the fact that many players who were active from about 1980 onward have yet to exhaust their eligibility. Generally, there have been about 30 or 35 Hall of Famers active in the majors at any given time.
    So, Redszone, let's assume this is a 35-year HoF year. Who ya got? (Remember, this is a look ahead, not a list of the 30-35 best players of today.)

    Mine:
    Albert Pujols
    Jim Thome
    Joey Votto (Homer pick)
    Justin Morneau
    Chase Utley
    Dustin Pedroia
    Omar Vizquel
    Derek Jeter
    Troy Tulowitzki
    Alex Rodriguez
    Scott Rolen
    Chipper Jones
    Kevin Youkiliss
    Evan Longoria
    Manny Ramirez
    Vlad Guerrerro
    Ichiro
    Jay Bruce (Homer pick)
    Jason Heyward
    Mike Stanton
    Justin Upton
    Carl Crawford
    Clayton Kershaw
    Tim Lincecum
    Mariano Rivera
    Roy Halladay
    Adam Wainwright
    Aroldis Chapman
    Stephen Strasburg
    CC Sabathia
    David Price
    Felix Hernandez
    Buster Posey
    Joe Mauer
    Ivan Rodriguez
    Last edited by Scrap Irony; 01-09-2011 at 01:25 PM.
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  3. #2
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: 35 Active Hall of Famers?

    Strictly off the top of my head:

    Albert Pujols
    Alex Rodriguez
    Pedro Martinez
    Roy Halladay
    CC Sabathia
    Felix Hernandez
    Ichiro Suzuki
    Manny Ramirez
    Tim Lincecum
    Jim Thome
    Derek Jeter
    Miguel Cabrera
    Chipper Jones
    Vladimir Guerrero
    Johan Santana
    Chase Utley
    Joe Mauer
    Scott Rolen
    Ryan Howard
    Mark Teixeira
    Adam Dunn
    Mariano Rivera
    David Wright
    Trevor Hoffman
    Billy Wagner
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  4. #3
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: 35 Active Hall of Famers?

    Nice thread topic.

    The only names on the list that I would disagree with are Vizquel and Youkiliss.

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    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: 35 Active Hall of Famers?

    I can't sit down and make a list today but I would add Matt Cain.

    Cliff Lee ain't bad either. But the clock is ticking.

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    Re: 35 Active Hall of Famers?

    I don't think Carl Crawford, other than a HOF salary, is anywhere close to a HOF'er.

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    Re: 35 Active Hall of Famers?

    Vizquel has 2800 hits. I'm betting he'll get to 3000. That plus 11 Gold Gloves puts him in, IMO. Youkiliss is a tough call, but I'm thinking he'll settle in at 3B for the majority of his career, is young enough to play another decade at an extremely high level, and, with the AL East bias, he'll be voted in.

    I forgot Trevor Hoffman, but don't know who to get rid of.
    Chapman, perhaps? (Though I get a Randy Johnson vibe from the young southpaw, plus he's already lights out in the 'pen, which should add to career numbers instead of those early career struggles that typically drag down careers.)
    Buster Posey? (A little bit of a late start, and a catcher, so his career stats will be less than stellar compared to others of his era.)
    Mike Stanton? (Lots of K's, but I love his D and his power so early in a career.)
    Jay Bruce? (Needs to really ramp up his numbers for inclusion. I'm talking near MVP level.)
    Joey Votto? (Started a little late, though if his numbers stay this good for a decade, he should be in. Position both helps and hurts, as he'll likely stay at 1B for a long time, but he'll need to really slug to keep it.)
    David Wright is another good choice, Redeye. I'd move Youkilis out for Wright. Another possible 3B could be Ryan Zimmerman (though he'll have to really slug highly for more support)
    Andruw Jones is another that's a tough call.
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    Tired of talk. Win! Joseph's Avatar
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    Re: 35 Active Hall of Famers?

    I think its impossible to speculate on a Bruce, a Posey, a Stanton, a Votto even at this point.

    Arod, Pujols, no-brainers. Wagner maybe. Hoffman sure. Jeter ok. Chipper Jones, likely. Rivera of course.

    I don't think I could come up with 35 guys playing now that would make my HOF though. Doesn't mean there aren't 35, especially counting guys with less than 4 years who you just don't know about yet.

    Guys like Wright, Utley, Andruw Jones....they just don't 'feel' like HoFers to me.

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    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    I can't sit down and make a list today but I would add Matt Cain.

    Cliff Lee ain't bad either. But the clock is ticking.
    Cain's an intriguing dude. Had he spent his early seasons on a team with a better offense he might already have 100 wins and he's what ? 26 years old?
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    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: 35 Active Hall of Famers?

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro View Post
    Cain's an intriguing dude. Had he spent his early seasons on a team with a better offense he might already have 100 wins and he's what ? 26 years old?
    He has 57 right now, so I'd say you could get him to 75. Not 100. But yeah, he's lost out on some wins definitely.

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    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    He has 57 right now, so I'd say you could get him to 75. Not 100. But yeah, he's lost out on some wins definitely.
    Yeah, 100 is a little high but if he'd been on the Yankees and not the Giants i don't think it's unreasonable to think he could have 85-90 wins by now. He's really gotten jobbed on a couple of years when he pitched great and the Giants scored almost no runs for him.
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    Re: 35 Active Hall of Famers?

    No Hanley Ramirez? Through his age 26 seasons, Ramirez has a career statline of .313/.385/.520 - .905 OPS with a 135 OPS+. 934 hits, 198 doubles, 124 homers, Rookie of the Year, and three All-Star appearances. If he stays healthy he's going to put up some scary good numbers.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

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    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
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    Re: 35 Active Hall of Famers?

    Quote Originally Posted by Joseph View Post
    I think its impossible to speculate on a Bruce, a Posey, a Stanton, a Votto even at this point.

    Arod, Pujols, no-brainers. Wagner maybe. Hoffman sure. Jeter ok. Chipper Jones, likely. Rivera of course.

    I don't think I could come up with 35 guys playing now that would make my HOF though. Doesn't mean there aren't 35, especially counting guys with less than 4 years who you just don't know about yet.

    Guys like Wright, Utley, Andruw Jones....they just don't 'feel' like HoFers to me.
    This is the nub - it's not knowable at a particular time as to who all of those players are. Take a look back 50 years ago, 1961 season.

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/aw..._batting.shtml

    [to see them in order, click on the "From" column twice to see most recent starting years back]

    In 1961, Yaz and Lou Brock debuted. Frank Robinson was going to have his 1st MVP season. Still playing were Early Wynn (whose career began in 1939), Stan Musial, Robin Roberts, etc. So those longstanding players might be suggested, but who knew that Yaz and Brock and Robinson would have the careers they did (Robby had been NL ROY, but that's not a given for entry into the HOF).

    It's a nice exercise and there will be good input about players somewhere in the middle of their careers, but we can't possibly know those younger players yet. Think of guys whose careers were wrecked like Dwight Gooden or Darrell Strawberry (by their own devices) or by injury etc. One never knows.
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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: 35 Active Hall of Famers?

    Using Baseball-Reference's play index, here are all the active players with at least 2 5.0+ WAR seasons. That's not to say you're not a future HOF if you're not on this list -- nor that you are one if you are, but I think it's a pretty good pool to choose from. It does miss relievers, who generally don't produce the volume of production of other players. FWIW, 26 players have at least 4 5.0 WAR seasons. Man, I had forgotten how great Carlos Delgado was for a long stretch of time.

    Code:
    Positions Players (34)
    Alex Rodriguez	12
    Manny Ramirez	11
    Jim Thome	11
    Carlos Delgado	9
    Albert Pujols	9
    Ken Griffey	8
    Vlad Guerrero	7
    Adam Dunn	7
    Miguel Cabrera	6
    Mark Teixeira	6
    Jason Giambi	6
    Andruw Jones	6
    Alfonso Soriano	5
    Troy Glaus	4
    Todd Helton	4
    Ryan Howard	4
    Prince Fielder	4
    Paul Konerko	4
    Lance Berkman	4
    Jim Edmonds	4
    David Ortiz	4
    Chipper Jones	4
    Carlos Beltran	3
    Aramis Ramirez	3
    Travis Hafner	2
    Ryan Braun	2
    Raul Ibanez	2
    Pat Burrell	2
    Miguel Tejada	2
    Matt Holliday	2
    Jason Bay	2
    Derrek Lee	2
    Carlos Pena	2
    Adrian Gonzalez	2
    
    Pitchers (20)
    Roy Halladay	7
    Javier Vazquez	4
    Johan Santana	4
    Roy Oswalt	4
    Andy Pettitte	3
    CC Sabathia	3
    Jamie Moyer	3
    Jon Lester	3
    Mark Buehrle	3
    Tim Hudson	3
    Adam Wainwright	2
    Carlos Zambrano	2
    Chris Carpenter	2
    Cliff Lee	2
    Dan Haren	2
    Felix Hernandez	2
    Josh Johnson	2
    Livan Hernandez	2
    Tim Lincecum	2
    Ubaldo Jimenez	2
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: 35 Active Hall of Famers?

    Quote Originally Posted by Joseph View Post
    I think its impossible to speculate on a Bruce, a Posey, a Stanton, a Votto even at this point.

    Arod, Pujols, no-brainers. Wagner maybe. Hoffman sure. Jeter ok. Chipper Jones, likely. Rivera of course.

    I don't think I could come up with 35 guys playing now that would make my HOF though. Doesn't mean there aren't 35, especially counting guys with less than 4 years who you just don't know about yet.

    Guys like Wright, Utley, Andruw Jones....they just don't 'feel' like HoFers to me.
    The whole "feel" approach seems to end up leaving out players who were either extremely well rounded or obtained a lot of their value through defense. Additionally, I think it's sad that guys like Utley get under-appreciated during their peak and then doubly so in retrospect because people don't remember them ever standing out as great.

    Not that your particular choices are right or wrong, just an observation about the more qualitative approach in general.

    I do agree with the point that a good chunk of that 35 probably are part of a large pool of excellent pre-peak guys who could go on to HOF careers but who could just as easily fade out Dale Murphy style, like Carlos Beltran and Andruw Jones. If they can put together 3 or 4 really solid seasons, they'll be there. But they could just as easily never be above average players again.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 01-09-2011 at 03:11 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: 35 Active Hall of Famers?

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    No Hanley Ramirez? Through his age 26 seasons, Ramirez has a career statline of .313/.385/.520 - .905 OPS with a 135 OPS+. 934 hits, 198 doubles, 124 homers, Rookie of the Year, and three All-Star appearances. If he stays healthy he's going to put up some scary good numbers.
    I thought about him, but he's going to have to move off the position sooner rather than later, he has attitude issues, and I question whether he'll be good long enough (another seven - ten years) to get in the discussion.

    As to the young players, that's part of the fun with discussion. (I hope.) Pick the ones you think will be not only great, but truly Hall worthy. Tell why.

    Doesn't mean you're right or wrong-- just something to talk about on a long winter's day.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
    -- Christy Matthewson
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