Just 3 out of 10?Originally Posted by Edd Roush
But seriously I could see Gomes missing the cut if he struggles mightily in Goodyear though that is tough to do for any offensive player. He too could get hurt as well opening the door for Hermida. But if he did I would like this OF a lot better...
Lewis/Heisey LF
Stubbs CF
Bruce RF
Hermida on the bench.
"You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."
--Woody Hayes
Mario, I usually agree with most of what you post, but I gotta disagree here. When Gomes is used correctly (ie strictly as a plattoon player vs left-handed pitching), he is a very valuable player. These numbers have been already posted, but I will repost them again for emphasis. Gomes is a .276/.371/.507 player against lefties. He murders them. That's a pretty legit sample size of 796 major league plate apearances. He has a lot of value against lefties. Now let's look at Heisey, in a very small sample size of 100 major league plate appearances, he has a .169/.242/.303 line against lefties. I know that's a small sample size, but woof. He absolutely cannot be counted on being a plattoon partner for Lewis with that line. I don't care how much he rakes in Spring Training. Unless Gomes gets hurt, he should be a lock for the Opening Day roster.Just 3 out of 10?
But seriously I could see Gomes missing the cut if he struggles mightily in Goodyear though that is tough to do for any offensive player. He too could get hurt as well opening the door for Hermida. But if he did I would like this OF a lot better...
Lewis/Heisey LF
Stubbs CF
Bruce RF
Hermida on the bench.
I like the move for a number of reasons that really have nothing to do with Fred Lewis:
1. It was very cheap. The Reds will have salary room at mid-season to make a move if needed for a push if they need to make a Cliff Lee type trade.
2. The Reds cupboard is still loaded. They didn't give up one prospect in a trade to get someone to leadoff, at least part of the time. There are still prospective lead off hitters coming up in the system -- this deal gives them more time to develop.
3. Walt continues to build for the long term. Even if the Reds take a step back in '11, they have a strong nucleus going forward -- unlike the Brewers who are all or nothing in '11 and the Cardinals who are trying to stay strong as long as 'la Genius blesses them with his presence.
Where we gonna go?
In 50 games and 107 AB's as a LF, Laynce Nix posted this line: .308 .362 .495 .857
overall vs RH's it was .289 .346 .450 .795 in 83 games and 149 AB's.
And yet, it was not a strict platoon was it?
Why do we think all of a sudden it will be now?
Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
I don't completely disagree with you on this actually. My thought process on Heisey (and for that matter my hope for Hermida as well though not sure his issues completely) is that if he gets his swing mechanics right he is a completely different producer than what we have seen. He is likely a 20/20 guy or better who has a line something like BP has had only with more IsoD (more walks and thus a higher OBP%) and of course I think he is a good defender and baserunner.
If Heisey doesn't get his swing mechanics right then he should be at best what he was last season if he can even beat out Hermida/Barton/Sappelt/Perez etc.
"You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."
--Woody Hayes
Well because unlike Nix Lewis has a different role on the team, Nix was just a better defending version of Gomes from the left side. Another thing, I have always felt one thing Dusty cannot stand is a lack of contact and Nix was probably even worse at that than Gomes is, Lewis is not. I don't know their K numbers but I think Dusty recognized that Nix had bigger holes in his swing than Gomes whereas Gomes was just less disciplined and therefore had a slight advantage in making contact. Easier to be disciplined than to sew up that big 'ole hole one has.
Last edited by Mario-Rijo; 01-11-2011 at 09:17 AM.
"You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."
--Woody Hayes
It was going in that direction. Around the time Nix sprained his ankle, Baker was talking about getting him more ABs. Then they got Edmonds, and he was getting some ABs over Gomes -- until he got hurt.And yet, it was not a strict platoon was it?
I think they'll platoon Gomes more often than not because he took a steep dive vs righties in the latter part of the year, played iffy defense, and the team lacks punch off the bench.Why do we think all of a sudden it will be now?
.289 BA vs RH pitching in 2010
That doesn't suggest a lack of contact. His 2010 overall numbers: .291 .350 .455 .805
And he's a better defender than Lewis.
The problem was, Dusty did not use them as a strict platoon. Of course, Nix was nicked up a bit last year, but give him 350-400 AB's against RH pitching, and he's be fine.
Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
You broke down Gomes' monthly production yesterday, have you seen Nix's?
April - .638
May - .852
June - .457
July - 1.304
August - .859
Sept - .730
He started seeing more time in August, then got hurt. But did he really do much before the 2nd half to warrant any kind of playing time?
1st half line - .234/.268/.411
Beat me to the point, edabbs. To add to it, Nix has a career .251/.293/.445 line against righties in 1264 plate appearances. Last year's July was just a blip of success in a small sample size over a very mediocre (and poor OBP) career. Give me Lewis's .280/.354/.442 every day. In addition, Lewis will likely get a bump in those aggregate stats for playing in GABP. I wouldn't be surprised with a .285/.360/.450 line from him next year. Sounds like a lead-off hitter to me.
Sure. I see a total package here. I see a better defender than Gomes or Lewis. I see a strict platoon player too. You want to break it down by halfs like I did with Gomes, BUT Gomes got 511 AB's. and he sucked for 2/3 of those AB's. Here is his line for 346 AB's: .257 .301 .408 .709. Y-A-W-N.
Now you might see the issue. Nix was better than Lewis against RH pitching. He's a better defender. Why would anyone think Gomes is going to get less than 500 AB's after Jocketty signed a player that isn't as good as who he is letting walk?
Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
To be fair, Nix has been an injury prone player. That may have played into Jocketty's decision to let him walk.
Past that, I still see Gomes getting 500+ AB's in 2010. It won't matter one bit what Hermida or Lewis do in ST. Gomes is the starter. oh. joy.
Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
Nix isn't a leadoff hitter, and we need one. Now you can debate the statistics but it's my opinion that Dusty sees a leadoff hitter a certain way and Lewis fits in that idea and Nix doesn't come close.
"You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."
--Woody Hayes
I wish I could tell the future, but I can't.
However I like this move and have faith that they know that Gomes is not a 500PA a year player.
I really don't believe this will happen. Walt wouldn't bring in two corner outfielders and give them a chance to compete for a major league job if Gomes was a lock for 500 ABs. The only reason he got so many PAs last year was injuries to Nix and Edmonds.
Speaking of Edmonds, does this signing signal the end of the Jim Edmonds era in Cincinnati? I would still love him back as a coach, but there is no room any more for him as a player.
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