Hardball Times Top 10 MILB Prospects for 2011

[MikeS21]

Not a bad list -- though I have Devin Mesoraco as the #1 prospect as long as the Reds continue to think of Chapman as a reliever. A solid-defense catcher that hits for power and average is more important and more valuable than any bullpen guy, no matter how hard he throws.

I agree. If the Reds keep Chapman in the bullpen - even as a closer, I will be disappointed in all the hype and media fascination. Chapman is not the first guy who can throw a 100 mph fastball, nor will he be the last. But he is the only pitcher in the entire organization who has the makings of a legitimate top of the rotation ace. But the Reds seem determined to waste him in a closer position that they have other guys who could replace Coco.

[dougdirt]

I used to think the Reds should try to move Alonso to LA for Dee Gordon. Could you imagine a future Hamilton/Gordon middle infield, with Stubbs in center?

I want nothing to do with Dee Gorgon. His defense is iffy (he has the tools, but he just isn't very good right now) and he can't hit. I would take Zack Cozart every day of the week over Dee Gordon and not think twice about it.

[camisadelgolf]

I want nothing to do with Dee Gorgon. His defense is iffy (he has the tools, but he just isn't very good right now) and he can't hit. I would take Zack Cozart every day of the week over Dee Gordon and not think twice about it.

What about my favorite day of the week, Opposite Day?

[kpresidente]

I want nothing to do with Dee Gorgon. His defense is iffy (he has the tools, but he just isn't very good right now) and he can't hit. I would take Zack Cozart every day of the week over Dee Gordon and not think twice about it.

Whatever. It's still a ton of range, and I'll bet you money Baseball America ranks him higher than Alonso or Cozart.

[dougdirt]

I'll bet you money Baseball America ranks him higher than Alonso or Cozart.

They can if they want, but I fully believe that anyone who does rank it that was is quite wrong. The guy can't hit and his defense isn't all that good. Great that he is really fast and can steal bases. He has gotten progressively worse at the plate each year as a pro, going from an .802 OPS to .756 to .687. He has good bat speed, but he is never going to hit 40 XBH in season either. I just don't see the value there at all.

[Roush's socks]

I agree. If the Reds keep Chapman in the bullpen - even as a closer, I will be disappointed in all the hype and media fascination. Chapman is not the first guy who can throw a 100 mph fastball, nor will he be the last. But he is the only pitcher in the entire organization who has the makings of a legitimate top of the rotation ace. But the Reds seem determined to waste him in a closer position that they have other guys who could replace Coco.

They are looking at the short term with using Chapman to replace Rhodes. If they really want him to be a starter they should let him play a season in AAA getting regular innings. But in the past there have been some good pitchers who had success in the pen and then moved to the rotation and were effective. I think the jury is out on whether it screws up a starter to use him in the pen when he's not quite ready to start.

[dougdirt]

They are looking at the short term with using Chapman to replace Rhodes. If they really want him to be a starter they should let him play a season in AAA getting regular innings. But in the past there have been some good pitchers who had success in the pen and then moved to the rotation and were effective. I think the jury is out on whether it screws up a starter to use him in the pen when he's not quite ready to start.

And nearly all of the guys who went from the bullpen to the rotation had a solid background in the minor leagues as starters to fall back on. Chapman doesn't. The Reds are being incredibly short sighted if they do plan to use him as a starter one day by placing him in the bullpen today.

[757690]

I agree with Bailey 3rd. If Chapman stays in the pen, Bailey might be 2nd. I think Leake is too high. Bruce is the clear number 1.

Grandal is the guy that surprises me the most. He's highly rated on both lists and getting love for his offense and defense. The reports that I read made him sound like Javy so I've not rated him as highly as others. I hope the optimism about Grandal is correct. Its been on multiple lists, but I chalked it up to the typical love for the latest 1st rounder that seems so rampant on these lists. I'd love to see him start at a fairly high level (A+ or AA) and him put up a good season and prove these lists correct.

To be honest, I wouldn't even put Bailey in the top 10.

Sure he has a ton of raw talent, but in my opinion, he's not much closer to reaching his potential than Hamilton or Mesoraco, both of whom I think have more talent than he does. In fact, since Bailey's spent three seasons already in the majors and hasn't put it together, I would say he's actually farther away than those two.

And going forward, I wouldn't be surprised to see Bailey log more innings in the pen than Chapman in their careers.

[mth123]

To be honest, I wouldn't even put Bailey in the top 10.

Sure he has a ton of raw talent, but in my opinion, he's not much closer to reaching his potential than Hamilton or Mesoraco, both of whom I think have more talent than he does. In fact, since Bailey's spent three seasons already in the majors and hasn't put it together, I would say he's actually farther away than those two.

And going forward, I wouldn't be surprised to see Bailey log more innings in the pen than Chapman in their careers.

Three years in the majors just means he was called up too soon and took a lot of lumps before he was ready, then mishandled from an innings standpoint (a mistake being repeated with Chapman??) and ended up on the DL for a half a season. Bailey has been about as mishandled as the pitching prospects that fell by the wayside for so many years, yet he still finished last season with a pretty decent head of steam. My concern is that the arm problems from last year could be something that recurs. Otherwise, I think he's the best bet on the current staff to rise to TOR starter status.

[redsfandan]

And nearly all of the guys who went from the bullpen to the rotation had a solid background in the minor leagues as starters to fall back on. Chapman doesn't. The Reds are being incredibly short sighted if they do plan to use him as a starter one day by placing him in the bullpen today.

Maybe they'll start Chapman in the Reds bullpen, send him to the minors after a month or so to stretch out and start to build his innings up with Arrendondo taking his place in the Reds bullpen, then bring him back to use in the Reds bullpen in September.

[lollipopcurve]

And nearly all of the guys who went from the bullpen to the rotation had a solid background in the minor leagues as starters to fall back on. Chapman doesn't.

Chapman started a lot in Cuba.

[dougdirt]

Chapman started a lot in Cuba.

Chapman never threw more than 125 innings in a year in Cuba. That isn't enough. He still needs two seasons of +30 to get to a starters workload.

[HokieRed]

Chapman never threw more than 125 innings in a year in Cuba. That isn't enough. He still needs two seasons of +30 to get to a starters workload.

Agree 100%. I know it's hard to do when there's been as much money invested as there has been in him, but I'd like to see him opening in Louisville and on the mound every five days.

[lollipopcurve]

Chapman never threw more than 125 innings in a year in Cuba. That isn't enough. He still needs two seasons of +30 to get to a starters workload.

Fair enough. But those guys in Cuba pitch year round, and Chapman is a guy who started pitching relatively late in life. So, his training has been unique, compared to most, and it's questionable to assume anything about his durability, given the differences. These things are not 100% formulaic anyway.

One thing to keep in mind is that Chapman likes to relieve. He's been quoted as saying he'd like the opportunity to close games. It could be that he prefers relieving at this point in his career, even. For my money, I want him in the major leagues, getting used to the team, the routines, the cities, the players, the umpires -- all while being as comfortable in his role as possible. To my way of thinking, the transition to starter may be better facilitated with that learning under his belt than it would be if he had to log another year in AAA, where his stuff simply overmatches most hitters and the surroundings are not what he ultimately has to adapt to.

[medford]

To be honest, I wouldn't even put Bailey in the top 10.

Sure he has a ton of raw talent, but in my opinion, he's not much closer to reaching his potential than Hamilton or Mesoraco, both of whom I think have more talent than he does. In fact, since Bailey's spent three seasons already in the majors and hasn't put it together, I would say he's actually farther away than those two.

And going forward, I wouldn't be surprised to see Bailey log more innings in the pen than Chapman in their careers.

Bailey has certainly had his ups & downs, but so do a lot of players early in their major league career. The fact that he has experiences some stretches of success at the ML level is well ahead of a ton of top notch prospects who never make it to the show. Mes has had 1 really good year, following several years of 'bust like' numbers. Sure there was the thumb injuries, the difficulty of the position, generally being young for his level and what not, but I'm not about to proclaim someone with 1 good season closer to reaching his ML potential than someone already in the show. Billy Hamilton hasn't even played full season ball yet, to think he's closer to reaching his potential than Bailey is shortsided at this point. Hamilton still has at least 2 more seasons in the minors before he's ready for the show, and there is no garuntee that he even gets there.