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Thread: Reds Starting Pitching and Projections

  1. #1
    ZCTRMTP!!!!!
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    Reds Starting Pitching and Projections

    Code:
    NAME	SYSTEM	GM	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA
    Arroyo	CAIRO	32	202	191	96	27	56	127	4.28
    Arroyo	ZIPS	32	201	195	94	27	60	127	4.21
    Arroyo	JAMES	32	209	206	91	28	60	137	3.92
    									
    Arroyo	AVE-P	32	204	197	94	27	59	130	4.14
    Arroyo	2010	33	216	188	93	29	59	121	3.88
    									
    Bailey	CAIRO	20	114	115	58	13	43	96	4.53
    Bailey	ZIPS	27	155	155	77	148	63	124	4.47
    Bailey	JAMES	24	142	148	71	16	62	119	4.50
    									
    Bailey	AVE-P	24	137	139	69	59	56	113	4.50
    Bailey	2010	19	109	109	54	11	40	100	4.46
    									
    Cueto	CAIRO	32	187	186	91	24	61	150	4.36
    Cueto	ZIPS	32	191	183	85	23	62	156	4.01
    Cueto	JAMES	29	176	174	81	23	57	146	4.14
    									
    Cueto	AVE-P	31	185	181	86	23	60	151	4.17
    Cueto	2010	31	186	181	75	19	56	138	3.64
    									
    Leake	CAIRO	24	147	156	71	20	52	107	4.37
    Leake	ZIPS	27	168	174	81	20	54	109	4.34
    Leake	JAMES	24	155	158	71	19	50	112	4.14
    									
    Leake	AVE-P	25	157	163	74	20	52	109	4.28
    Leake	2010	24	138	158	65	19	49	91	4.23
    									
    Volquez	CAIRO	21	117	109	58	14	58	108	4.49
    Volquez	ZIPS	19	108	90	44	11	55	115	3.66
    Volquez	JAMES	32	182	157	79	18	94	181	3.91
    									
    Volquez	AVE-P	24	136	119	60	14	69	135	4.02
    Volquez	2010	12	63	59	30	6	35	67	4.31
    									
    Wood	CAIRO	19	109	102	52	13	42	87	4.32
    Wood	ZIPS	30	178	161	72	17	62	147	3.64
    Wood	JAMES	24	149	135	59	13	52	126	3.56
    									
    Wood	AVE-P	24	145	133	61	14	52	120	3.84
    Wood	2010	17	103	85	40	9	26	86	3.51
    									
    ERA	CAIRO	4.38							
    ERA	ZIPS	4.07							
    ERA	JAMES	4.02							
    									
    ERA	AVE-P	4.14							
    ERA	2010	3.94
    Projecting how a player will perform in the upcoming season is of vital importance to a ballclub and I am sure all teams attempt to project performances in some manner. It seems pretty straight forward. You project what the players you have under control will do and then work to shore up any projected weaknesses.
    I decided to look at how three projection systems viewed the Reds' starters. Most people expect the starters to improve. This improvement would go a long way towards the team's effort to defend their NL Central title.
    Projection systems are really just educated guesses so keep that in mind.
    I feel the starters - aside from Arroyo - are both talented and young. And improvement was almost inevitable. The resulting numbers did not meet that expectation. I used Zips, James and Cairo and averaged the three.
    I looked at the six pitchers that one would assume will garner nearly all of the team's starts. Arroyo, Bailey, Cueto, Leake, Volquez and Wood.
    Of these six pitchers only one showed projected improvement - Edinson Volquez. Two stayed about the same - Homer Bailey and Mike Leake. And three took a step backwards - Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto and Travis Wood.
    If you total all three systems separately and compare them to the 2010 numbers, all three systems project these six pitchers, as a group, to not perform as well as in 2010, using ERA as the measuring stick. Cairo was particularly bearish for the upcoming season.
    Cairo has a huge dropoff, while Zips and James project a more modest decline.

    ***Time will tell but I strongly believe, as a group, the starters will improve in 2011. I just thought I would post the results in case anyone was interested.***
    Zero chance the Reds miss the playoffs!

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  3. #2
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    Re: Reds Starting Pitching and Projections

    I'm expecting some mixed results, but overall improvement by the starting pitching. By that I mean maybe 1 or 2 of the potential pitchers don't live up to their expectations, but the other 3-4 will perform to expectations or exceed them. I'm looking at Cueto, Volquez, and Bailey to improve. I see Arroyo largely the same. I like Wood a lot, but he could take a small step backwards and still have a good year. Leake I think will be the odd man out and may suffer being shuttled back and forth between AAA and the big leagues.

    I find Zip's projection of Bailey the most interesting. Bailey gives up 148 HRs and still has an ERA of less than 5.00. (I know there is a typo somewhere, but couldn't resist making fun of it.)

  4. #3
    ZCTRMTP!!!!!
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    Re: Reds Starting Pitching and Projections

    They were all solo homers. Went back and checked and ZIPS has Bailey at 18 bombs.
    Here are all the ZIPS projections, offense, defense and pitching. http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/...ncinnati_reds/

    And here are the Cairo projections. http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/d...ojections_v0.3
    Last edited by texasdave; 01-19-2011 at 06:09 PM.
    Zero chance the Reds miss the playoffs!

  5. #4
    Dyslexic Taquitos Quatitos's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Starting Pitching and Projections

    I don't think you will see any of these projections predict an improvement for the younger players since they are based off of past performance. So for the younger players, they may have had a rocky first exposure to the majors (Bailey for example 7.93 ERA in 08) or have a year that they had trouble adjusting to a new minor league level (Wood in 2008, 7.09 ERA in 17 starts at AA). We all know these kind of events shouldn't really be counted against these guys but the computer will use that when it makes it predictions. So for these younger guys, I would take all of the predictions with a grain of salt and realize that these guys are working on improving their stuff, getting stronger, and gaining confidence from their success last season.

    Nice job on compiling all the projection data up

  6. #5
    Member MikeThierry's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Starting Pitching and Projections

    Texas, I don't know about that prediction site. They have Votto only hitting .301 They have Matt Holiday hitting .296 so I don't know what to think of that analysis.

    I always tend to find the Bill James projections the most reliable. Is he exactly right? No but he is generally within striking distance from being right.

    That said, Bill James has projected a triple crown year for Pujols hitting .336 41 HR 120 RBI's and Lance Berkman to have a .275/.393/.486 line with 22 HR and 77 RBI's, so he might be a little off this year.
    Last edited by MikeThierry; 01-20-2011 at 12:05 AM.


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