Can the Reds Afford Votto in 2014 and Beyond?

[camisadelgolf]

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/201...n-vottos-deal/

After seeing the breakdown on the Joey Votto deal, I can see why the Reds didn’t press for a four- or five-year deal.

I'm not convinced one way or the other on this, but if the Reds really wanted to, I think they could afford Votto at a price of $20MM per year.

$20MM Votto
$10MM Bruce

Players in arbitration:
Ryan Hanigan
Paul Janish
Chris Heisey
Drew Stubbs
Homer Bailey
Aroldis Chapman
Mike Leake
Travis Wood
Jose Arredondo
Bill Bray
Logan Ondrusek

How much would those guys earn in arbitration? $34MM or so?
In 2014, the only players amongst those who I could see getting a significant raise are Stubbs, Bailey, Chapman, Leake, and Wood.

That would leave you with about $20MM to spend on 12 players. That's probably enough money to afford Volquez, Cueto, and a bunch of cheap, in-house options. Here's where most of the savings would come:

Ramon Hernandez -> Devin Mesoraco
Brandon Phillips -> Billy Hamilton
Scott Rolen -> Todd Frazier
Edgar Renteria -> Zack Cozart
Miguel Cairo -> Chris Valaika
Jonny Gomes -> Chris Heisey
Fred Lewis -> Ryan LaMarre
Bronson Arroyo -> Mike Leake
Francisco Cordero -> Brad Boxberger
Nick Masset -> Donnie Joseph
Jared Burton -> Jordan Smith

So what do you think? Can the Reds keep Votto in Cincy for 2014 and beyond?

[Razor Shines]

Nice post. Looks possible....would Joe sign for 20M per? That's a big part of the equation and something we're probably not gonna know for a while.

[kbrake]

3 years from now the length of a deal might be more of a concern than the annual salary figure. I don't think it would be a great idea to commit 6 or 7 years to a 30 year old.

[RedsManRick]

This is another example of where deals like the Arroyo, Phillips and Cordero ones look worst. All are good players, but they are replaceable. Votto? Not so much. By 2014, the payroll will look quite different. I just hope our ability to retain truly elite talent isn't harmed by our choice to retain the merely good.

[edabbs44]

This is another example of where deals like the Arroyo, Phillips and Cordero ones look worst. All are good players, but they are replaceable. Votto? Not so much. By 2014, the payroll will look quite different. I just hope our ability to retain truly elite talent isn't harmed by our choice to retain the merely good.

Those 3 will likely be gone by the time 2014 rolls around.

[Unassisted]

The answer depends less on the dollar amount and more on the percentage of the payroll that his next deal represents. I don't know what the tipping point is percentage-wise and we aren't ever going to be privy to the ceiling of the payroll.

The Griffey deal proved that the Reds can ill afford to put too many eggs into any player's basket. There are opportunity costs to overpaying.

We don't even know for sure that the Reds will have the same ownership in 2014.

[RollyInRaleigh]

The answer depends less on the dollar amount and more on the percentage of the payroll that his next deal represents. I don't know what the tipping point is percentage-wise and we aren't ever going to be privy to the ceiling of the payroll.

The Griffey deal proved that the Reds can ill afford to put too many eggs into any player's basket. There are opportunity costs to overpaying.

We don't even know for sure that the Reds will have the same ownership in 2014.

Wow! Where'd that last part come from?

[medford]

The answer depends less on the dollar amount and more on the percentage of the payroll that his next deal represents. I don't know what the tipping point is percentage-wise and we aren't ever going to be privy to the ceiling of the payroll.

The Griffey deal proved that the Reds can ill afford to put too many eggs into any player's basket. There are opportunity costs to overpaying.

We don't even know for sure that the Reds will have the same ownership in 2014.

I think one big difference b/w now and the Griffey era, which Cam's thoughts reflected, is that the team relied heavily on ML retreads, castoffs, and guys on the back of their career, cashing in on the 2-4 mil offer to fill the roster. 2-4 mil may not sound like much in baseball buget terms, but gather a couple of those together and it adds up pretty quick.

conversly, the 2014 reds should be able to count on a handful of players developing into cheap ML worthy talent. Guys like Mes, Grandal, Hamilton, Yorman, Duran, Fasier, Arias, Cozart, Guillen, Leake, Wood, Boxberger, Lotzkar, etc... will factor into the 2014 roster and keeping the ML buget in order. Some could become stars, some will have solid ML careers, some will have mostly forgetable ML careers, and others will never make it. Point is, there are enough guys that appear to have legit ML ability down the road, if not today that will help keep the buget cheap and require the front office to go outside of the organization too often to fill holes. There shouldn't be many holes.

On top of that, if you believe last season was no fluke, but a sign of things to come over the next 3+ years, there should be more butts in the seats at GABP. Continue to make the playoffs, and reap the rewards of postseason revenue, increased media contracts, merchandise sales, etc... Point is, this team has a real chance to inflate the buget unlike the teams surrounding Griffey did who often flamed out by the time the summer heat really sunk in.

[kaldaniels]

If, and he will, Votto is going to command 20 Million a year, for the sake of the team, I would try to find a prospect that could come in and produce say 75% of what Votto does at 5 percent of the cost. Then, I'd take that 19,500,000 and spread it out around the rest of the club accordingly. I would spare no expense in making sure I hit the mark with my prospect that I acquired.

For 2011...

Would you rather....

A) Have Votto at 20 MM
B) Have had 20 MM in the offseason to upgrade spots all over the diamond

I'd take B, and that is no slight to the awesomeness of Joey Votto...just a result of the Reds payroll.

[TheNext44]

The Reds can afford any salary as long as the player provides the production that justifies it. If Votto provides a 1.000+ OPS and average defense, the Reds can afford to pay him $20M+.

The problem arises when the player either gets hurt and/or drops in production. The Reds can afford a big contract. They just can't afford a bad contract.

[Unassisted]

Wow! Where'd that last part come from?

Stream of consciousness, while pondering the uncertainty of 2014.

I really do expect that Castellini will stick around as owner for fewer than 10 years.

[mth123]

The Reds can afford a big contract. They just can't afford a bad contract.

Sig-worthy

[kaldaniels]

The Reds can afford any salary as long as the player provides the production that justifies it. If Votto provides a 1.000+ OPS and average defense, the Reds can afford to pay him $20M+.

The problem arises when the player either gets hurt and/or drops in production. The Reds can afford a big contract. They just can't afford a bad contract.

And I would agree. If Votto goes all Pujols the next 6 years, I'd be glad to see the Reds hand over 20 MM per. But counting on one guy to OPS 1.000 is a risky thing...and I don't know if I'd have the stomach to make the deal.

Interesting nugget from Fay's chat today...he has the odds at 3-2 in favor of Votto staying after the contract. My heart says otherwise, but my head would put them at 3-1 that he leaves.

[RedsManRick]

The Reds have something like $70M in marginal payroll (assuming $10M of minimums) to pay for ~45 marginal wins. That breaks down to ~$1.5M/win. So long as you're getting a good chunk of those 45 wins at or near the major league minimum, you can certainly afford to pay market prices for some talent.

As TN44 said, paying a guy $24M for 6 wins of production isn't really a problem. Given our payroll, you probably can't have more than one of them, as they carry a good deal of risk and limit your flexibility. Paying a guy $13M for 1 win of production -- now that's a problem.

I think the better way to think Fay's position is that it would be fiscally irresponsible to place so many eggs in one basket -- too great a risk. Of course, if the choice is 6 wins for $24M or 2 2-win guys at $12M each, the choice is easy. That's what I getting at with the Arrroyo/Cordero comment. Sure, those guys will be gone by the time 2014 rolls around. I just hope we don't replace them with similar expensive-but-replaceable contracts and rather save some cash to pay for the type of talent you simply cannot replace.

[Oxilon]

It's still 3 years away. If the Reds continue to contend over the next few seasons, I don't see how the Reds won't be able to afford Votto.