Bavasi not afraid to fast track Hamilton

[Scrap Irony]

But he could certainly go through Dayton and Bakersfield in 2011, then go through AA, play a few games in Louisville, and play in eptember in the majors in 2012. (Many exceptional prospects do just that.)

That could very well put him in as the starter in Cincinnati in April of 2013 without a huge jump.

I wouldn't bet on it, but if he's a top ten prospect in all of baseball, he would (typically) do just that at least once in his minor league career (re, jump two or more levels in one season).

I don't know if he will, as Hamilton is young, but a lack of quality prospects in front of him, a huge contract at 2B, no SS, and a leadoff need may push him as well.

[dougdirt]

But he could certainly go through Dayton and Bakersfield in 2011, then go through AA, play a few games in Louisville, and play in eptember in the majors in 2012. (Many exceptional prospects do just that.)

That could very well put him in as the starter in Cincinnati in April of 2013 without a huge jump.

I wouldn't bet on it, but if he's a top ten prospect in all of baseball, he would (typically) do just that at least once in his minor league career (re, jump two or more levels in one season).

I don't know if he will, as Hamilton is young, but a lack of quality prospects in front of him, a huge contract at 2B, no SS, and a leadoff need may push him as well.

Guys in front of him in the 2B/SS line: Zack Cozart, Chris Valaika, Kris Negron, Miguel Rojas (doubt he holds him back too long, but he is going to be ahead of him for the time being), Didi Gregorius and Henry Rodriguez. There are 5 solid to good prospects in there and the guy the Reds are in love with defensively. If the Reds didn't have all of those guys, sure, he might get pushed quickly.... but I just don't see it given what is in front of him.

[nate1213]

So you would say power trumps speed? I believe that if a player can get on pretty easily, and show over 2-3 months they can consistently do it, and have the speed that people say Hamilton have, then I am sure he could make a pretty big jump. Not a Bruce jump, or jumps, but hitting a few levels a year, and making it to AAA with Hamilton's skill set isn't completely out of the question.

[dougdirt]

So you would say power trumps speed? I believe that if a player can get on pretty easily, and show over 2-3 months they can consistently do it, and have the speed that people say Hamilton have, then I am sure he could make a pretty big jump. Not a Bruce jump, or jumps, but hitting a few levels a year, and making it to AAA with Hamilton's skill set isn't completely out of the question.

Guys in their first full season of pro ball don't jump from low A to AAA. It simply doesn't happen. And yes, power absolutely trumps speed. Speed is a nice addition to an offensive resume. Power is a major part of an offensive resume.

I think a lot of people are getting well ahead of themselves here with Hamilton. Another light power, really fast middle infielder posted this line in the Pioneer League in 2009 at age 19: .314/.363/.387 with a walk rate of 5.3% and a strikeout rate of 12%.

Billy Hamilton at age 19 hit: .318/.383/.456 with a walk rate of 8.3% and a strikeout rate of 17.7%.

Hamilton showed more power, but the rest of their games are pretty similar.

The mystery player went to the Midwest League last season and hit .273/.327/.379 this season with a 6% walk rate and an 11.3% strikeout rate. There is a decent step up in talent from the Pioneer League to the Midwest League and its not always a seamless transition. Mystery player BTW, Didi Gregorius. Athletically, he compares fairly well with Hamilton, though he is a little taller.

[Benihana]

Guys in front of him in the 2B/SS line: Zack Cozart, Chris Valaika, Kris Negron, Miguel Rojas (doubt he holds him back too long, but he is going to be ahead of him for the time being), Didi Gregorius and Henry Rodriguez. There are 5 solid to good prospects in there and the guy the Reds are in love with defensively. If the Reds didn't have all of those guys, sure, he might get pushed quickly.... but I just don't see it given what is in front of him.

Depends on what you mean by "in front of him." Do they play the same position in a higher league at the moment? Yes. Will they be significant factors in impeding his progress if he takes off? No.

Hamilton is a significantly better prospect than anyone you mentioned, except for possibly Zack Cozart, who is more than 5 years older than Hamilton.

[Scrap Irony]

Another light power, really fast middle infielder posted this line in the Pioneer League in 2009 at age 19: .314/.363/.387 with a walk rate of 5.3% and a strikeout rate of 12%.

Billy Hamilton at age 19 hit: .318/.383/.456 with a walk rate of 8.3% and a strikeout rate of 17.7%.

Hamilton showed more power, but the rest of their games are pretty similar.

Similar aside from obp (up 20 points), BB rate (up 3%), and slugging (up 70 points), you mean?

The only similar things between Gregorious and Hamilton are that both play the middle infield and both had a 320-ish batting average in the Pioneer League.

[kpresidente]

The only similar things between Gregorious and Hamilton are that both play the middle infield and both had a 320-ish batting average in the Pioneer League.

Even if they were exactly the same it's a purely anectdotal argument. Another anecdote: Jay Bruce and Wladimir Balentien put up similar numbers in A-ball @ 19 y.o.. So what?

[dougdirt]

Even if they were exactly the same it's a purely anectdotal argument. Another anecdote: Jay Bruce and Wladimir Balentien put up similar numbers in A-ball @ 19 y.o.. So what?

Sure, its anecdotal and I do expect Hamilton to do better in 2011 than Gregorius did in 2010 for Dayton, but my point was that its a big jump from Billings to Dayton. Gregorius and Hamilton have pretty similar skillsets though. Hamilton has plus plus speed while Gregorius is simply a plus runner, but aside from that, their tools are pretty similar while Gregorius might have better power in the future.

Here is where I am at right now..... If Billy Hamilton were simply just fast, instead of super fast, and had the exact same everything else without the 30+ steal ability, some wouldn't be going so overboard on fast tracking him. In my opinion, being really fast isn't a reason to fast track someone. Fast track him because of his bat/glove, not his wheels. I don't see his bat warranting the idea that he should be fast tracked at this point.

[Orenda]

Fast track is a phrase the reds should remove from their vocabulary. If they only have a guy so long I don't see how they benefit from rushing them through the minors and not making them develop fully before going to the majors.

Hypothetically, say the reds have a a 20 year old who scouts love and could post HOF caliber numbers...if the team isn't going to be competitive or if they can find a guy to contribute positively why rush them?

If the player does pan out early and is putting up big numbers there is a good chance he will be out the door to the highest bidder just another year sooner anyhow. you risk losing some of the years he's under control to potentially less productive seasons than when he get's a little older/stronger/skilled.

[Griffey012]

What about the possibility of a jump from AA to the majors? Like Starlin Castro this past season? Seems pretty far fetched with the org's philosophy, but it could be possible.

[dougdirt]

What about the possibility of a jump from AA to the majors? Like Starlin Castro this past season? Seems pretty far fetched with the org's philosophy, but it could be possible.

Not going to happen given who is in front of him.

[Mario-Rijo]

Sure, its anecdotal and I do expect Hamilton to do better in 2011 than Gregorius did in 2010 for Dayton, but my point was that its a big jump from Billings to Dayton. Gregorius and Hamilton have pretty similar skillsets though. Hamilton has plus plus speed while Gregorius is simply a plus runner, but aside from that, their tools are pretty similar while Gregorius might have better power in the future.

Here is where I am at right now..... If Billy Hamilton were simply just fast, instead of super fast, and had the exact same everything else without the 30+ steal ability, some wouldn't be going so overboard on fast tracking him. In my opinion, being really fast isn't a reason to fast track someone. Fast track him because of his bat/glove, not his wheels. I don't see his bat warranting the idea that he should be fast tracked at this point.

But he isn't just fast Doug he is super fast and super rangy and super athletic. And I noticed that you stated recently that speed is more of a complimentary asset while power is more than that. I have a problem with that, speed can be every bit the weapon power is and it's not as easily found. Rickey Henderson, Vince Coleman, Brett Butler the list goes on and on of guys whose speed was not just game changing but league/championship altering.

Though I agree about fast tracking guys, not a fan of it but equally not a fan of the Reds sometimes snail pace.

[backbencher]

What about the possibility of a jump from AA to the majors? Like Starlin Castro this past season? Seems pretty far fetched with the org's philosophy, but it could be possible.

I'm still not sure why Elvis Andrus isn't the upside comp. Andrus was an international singing, so his path was different, but the position and skillsets seem pretty comparable. I'd imagine that's who the Reds see.

Not that I recommend a big jump for Hamilton - Andrus walked into a DH lineup that could bat him ninth for a year.

[lollipopcurve]

Hamilton was a 3-sport guy in high school. He's played a lot less baseball than guys from California, Texas and the Caribbean. I'd like to see him play a full year in Dayton. It's a great place to play, and it'll be his first full season. I see next year as the better year to jump him -- who wants to play a full year in Bakersfield?

[bellhead]

Plus he will be playing with his future hall of famer Ronald Torres...