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Thread: Bavasi not afraid to fast track Hamilton

  1. #61
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    Re: Bavasi not afraid to fast track Hamilton

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    Yeah, I can't make any sense of it either. I might argue that the stolen bases should make an increase to his slugging since he's actually advancing bases. However, it doesn't help him drive in runs, so it's not like one stolen base is the equivalent of converting a single into a double. Not only that, but each caught stealing would deduct from all his slash lines. Overall, it probably raises his career OPS from .726 to something closer to .800, which is nothing to shake a stick at, but it's a far cry from .318/.383/.540.

    edit: It looks like dougdirt already addressed this. In that case, let's pretend I repeated it for emphasis.
    If you add his SB and take away his CS, Hamilton's speed adjusted slugging percentage is 594, good for a 977 2010 OPS. (TB+SB-CS/AB) (If a player gets caught trying to stretch a single into a double, he gets credit for the single, remember. This is a similar idea.)

    What am I (and kpresidente) missing?
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
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  3. #62
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    Re: Bavasi not afraid to fast track Hamilton

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    If you add his SB and take away his CS, Hamilton's speed adjusted slugging percentage is 594, good for a 977 2010 OPS. (TB+SB-CS/AB) (If a player gets caught trying to stretch a single into a double, he gets credit for the single, remember. This is a similar idea.)

    What am I (and kpresidente) missing?
    Except that you can't simply add steals to slugging. Lets say that a guy is on second base and Hamilton gets an infield single to second base. That is 1.000 in SLG. If he steals second base, he didn't drive in the runner at second base, which he would have if he had hit a double. That extra base is good, but it isn't equal to 1.000 in terms of the slugging, because he didn't advance the other guy. That is what you are missing.

  4. #63
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    Re: Bavasi not afraid to fast track Hamilton

    So what if the guy doesn't score. Slugging percentage doesn't count RBI, doug. It doesn't attempt to.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
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  5. #64
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    Re: Bavasi not afraid to fast track Hamilton

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    So what if the guy doesn't score. Slugging percentage doesn't count RBI, doug. It doesn't attempt to.
    Sure, it doesn't count RBI, but it does account for the bases you could theoretically move players up. A steal isn't moving anyone up but yourself. Therefore it can't be viewed on the same level as a 'total base'. My example simply explained why it can't be.

  6. #65
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Bavasi not afraid to fast track Hamilton

    A double is more valuable than a single + stolen base. Therefore, they should not be weighted equally.

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    Re: Bavasi not afraid to fast track Hamilton

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Sure, it doesn't count RBI, but it does account for the bases you could theoretically move players up.
    No, it doesn't. Never has.
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  8. #67
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    Re: Bavasi not afraid to fast track Hamilton

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    A double is more valuable than a single + stolen base. Therefore, they should not be weighted equally.
    Then how should they be weighed? WWBJD? (What Would Bill James Do?)
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
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  9. #68
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    Re: Bavasi not afraid to fast track Hamilton

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    No, it doesn't. Never has.
    Huh?

  10. #69
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    Re: Bavasi not afraid to fast track Hamilton

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Then how should they be weighed? WWBJD? (What Would Bill James Do?)
    I don't know exactly, but I will certainly look into it. But I do know that there is no rational reasoning that it should be weighted on a 1 to 1 ratio.

  11. #70
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    Re: Bavasi not afraid to fast track Hamilton

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Then how should they be weighed? WWBJD? (What Would Bill James Do?)
    According to Tom Tango (InsideTheBook.com) here are the "run values" of the different outcomes (http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/inde...s_of_events/):

    Runs Result Description
    1.45 Inside the Park HR
    1.39 Home Run
    1.09 Triple
    0.89 Sacrifice With Error
    0.81 Sacrifice Fly Error
    0.77 Double
    0.74 Sacrifice Fielder’s Choice
    0.72 Ground Rule Double
    0.49 Dropped Third Strike Error
    0.47 Single
    0.47 Error
    0.42 Assist With Error
    0.39 Advanced
    0.38 Interference
    0.35 Dropped Third Strike (PB)
    0.35 Hit By Pitch
    0.34 Double Steal
    0.32 Walked
    0.30 Bunt
    0.28 Balk
    0.28 Passed Ball
    0.26 Wild Pitch
    0.24 Dropped Third Strike (WP)
    0.24 Error
    0.23 Caught Stealing With Error
    0.18 Intentionally Walked
    0.16 Stolen Base
    0.12 Defensive Indifference
    0.04 Advance On Interference
    -0.08 Sacrifice Fly
    -0.16 Fielder Choice
    -0.18 Additional Base
    -0.20 Sacrifice
    -0.23 Bunt Out
    -0.24 Ground Out
    -0.27 Dropped Third Strike
    -0.28 Fly Out
    -0.28 Strikeout Looking
    -0.29 Batter Interference
    -0.29 Dropped Third Strike (Taken)
    -0.30 Foul Fly Out
    -0.30 Strikeout
    -0.31 Advance On Throw
    -0.31 Fielder’s Choice
    -0.33 Line Drive
    -0.35 Touched By Own Batted Ball
    -0.40 Caught Stealing Double Play
    -0.45 Tagged Out
    -0.45 Caught Stealing
    -0.49 Picked Off
    -0.55 Infield Fly
    -0.58 Forced Out
    -0.72 Non-Force GDP
    -0.85 Grounded Into Double Play
    -1.06 Double Play
    -1.32 Fielder’s Choice GIDP
    -1.40 Triple Play

    According to this, a single + a steal is worth .63, while a double is worth .77. A double + a steal is worth .93, while a triple is worth 1.09.

  12. #71
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Bavasi not afraid to fast track Hamilton

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    If you add his SB and take away his CS, Hamilton's speed adjusted slugging percentage is 594, good for a 977 2010 OPS. (TB+SB-CS/AB) (If a player gets caught trying to stretch a single into a double, he gets credit for the single, remember. This is a similar idea.)

    What am I (and kpresidente) missing?
    I fooled around with something like this a few years ago and no less a stat guru than the revered SteelSD was putting together a system that factored these in. I think you would need to subtract his CS and times picked off from his OBP to make this adjustment fair. You may even need to subtract bases from his total bases IIRC. For example if a guy is caught stealing 3rd, then you need to subtract 2 bases in his adjusted slugging percentage since it removed a baserunner from second base.

    I probably don't have it all correct. He's posted his system on here somewhere, but I can't find it.
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  13. #72
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    Re: Bavasi not afraid to fast track Hamilton

    Again, that's run values.

    Not slugging percentage.

    Slugging percentage is based, in part, on total bases. Speed-adjusted total bases, then, would include stolen bases and caught stealing, along with singles, 2B, 3B, and HR.
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  14. #73
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    Re: Bavasi not afraid to fast track Hamilton

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I fooled around with something like this a few years ago and no less a stat guru than the revered SteelSD was putting together a system that factored these in. I think you would need to subtract his CS and times picked off from his OBP to make this adjustment fair. You may even need to subtract bases from his total bases IIRC. For example if a guy is caught stealing 3rd, then you need to subtract 2 bases in his adjusted slugging percentage since it removed a baserunner from second base.

    I probably don't have it all correct. He's posted his system on here somewhere, but I can't find it.
    If a guy hit a double, but got out at third, he still gets credit for a double. Same should be true of speed-adjusted OPS, yes?
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
    -- Christy Matthewson
    "Show me a good loser and I'll show you an idiot."
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  15. #74
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    Re: Bavasi not afraid to fast track Hamilton

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Again, that's run values.

    Not slugging percentage.

    Slugging percentage is based, in part, on total bases. Speed-adjusted total bases, then, would include stolen bases and caught stealing, along with singles, 2B, 3B, and HR.
    Slugging is made up of things that also have run values. As I showed, a hit + a steal is worth less than that hit with the extra base actually happening while the ball was in play. That tells you why you can't "speed adjust" slugging by adding in steals as "extra total bases".

  16. #75
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    Re: Bavasi not afraid to fast track Hamilton

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    If a guy hit a double, but got out at third, he still gets credit for a double. Same should be true of speed-adjusted OPS, yes?
    No, it shouldn't. I don't know how better to explain it than I have within this thread. A hit+steal is not worth the same as a hit that leads to the player at that same base. It just isn't.


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