Homer Bailey vs. Phil Hughes

[JKam]

When they were coming up through the minors, Bailey and Hughes were regarded as the best two pitching prospects. Some had Hughes higher than Bailey and vice versa.

Now they are in the majors. Hughes was used out of the pen in 2009 and had a good breakout year as a starter last season. Homer is still trying to find consistency and stay injury free, but he has shown signs of dominance in short stints.

Who would you rather have? Would you take what looks like the more polished and further along pitcher in Hughes, or would you rather have the Bailey with his potential?

[Jefferson24]

I'm just about through with Homer. I think I'll give him this season to prove his worth. Hughes I would argue to this point has proved to be more valuable to his team. That doesn't mean he will continue to be the better of the two. I think the edge goes to Hughes and if I was picking that's who I would choose.

[brm7675]

I don't ever see either being dominate A type starters, both will probably have serviceable ML careers, but personally i see higher upside with Cueto/Woods and even Leake at this point.

[Jefferson24]

I don't ever see either being dominate A type starters, both will probably have serviceable ML careers, but personally i see higher upside with Cueto/Woods and even Leake at this point.

Hughes was 18-8 last year and an All Star, not a type A starter but not that far off.

He had more wins than any Reds pitcher but the ERA was 4.19.

Cueto had a lower ERA (3.64) but the WHIP numbers were the same (1.24 to 1.28).

I'm not convinced yet that I would rather have Cueto, Woods, Leake or Bailey over Hughes.

[Krawhitham]

Hughes was 18-8 last year and an All Star, not a type A starter but not that far off.

He had more wins than any Reds pitcher but the ERA was 4.19.

I could get 12 wins pitching for the Yankees and my fastball only hits high 80's low 90's

Hughes had more wins than quality starts (18 vs 15), using the same ratio Arroyo would have had 25 wins last year for the Yankees

[New York Red]

All the spoiled Yankee fans I know consider Hughes a bust, and the weak link in their pitching staff. His ERA was pretty high to have the record he had, and I'm sure that ERA would be even higher at GAB. I'd say there isn't enough of a sample size yet for me to choose between Hughes and Bailey. I think we learn a lot more about both this year.

[Jefferson24]

I think we learn a lot more about both this year.

I agree this year will show a lot more about Hughes and our young pitchers. Hopefully Homer gets his location dialed in and trusts his catcher's pitch calling. I think the potential is there but if he doesn't show something soon I think he will be gone.

[Quatitos]

Hughes was 18-8 last year and an All Star, not a type A starter but not that far off.

He had more wins than any Reds pitcher but the ERA was 4.19.

Cueto had a lower ERA (3.64) but the WHIP numbers were the same (1.24 to 1.28).

I'm not convinced yet that I would rather have Cueto, Woods, Leake or Bailey over Hughes.

Hughes had 17 games of 6+ run support, and went 15-0 in those games. Hughes had 14 games of 5 or less run support, and went 3-8 in those games (2 of those wins coming in games where he got 5 runs from his side).

Ignore his win totals, they are in no way indicative of how he performed last season.

[brm7675]

Hughes was 18-8 last year and an All Star, not a type A starter but not that far off.

He had more wins than any Reds pitcher but the ERA was 4.19.

Cueto had a lower ERA (3.64) but the WHIP numbers were the same (1.24 to 1.28).

I'm not convinced yet that I would rather have Cueto, Woods, Leake or Bailey over Hughes.

W/L record is not what I would consider a "key" factor in quality of pitcher

[webbbj]

IDK but its definitely a make or break year for Homer Bailey and I optimistically think he will pitch really well this year. If he doesnt I think they could try him in the bullpen next year. Though I really hope that doesnt happen since I think he could be a really good starter.

I have no opinion of Phil Hughes.

[757690]

Hughes has turned into a solid #3 starting pitcher. In 2009 and 2010 combined, he posted a 3.81 ERA, 8.3 K/9, 2.81 KK/BB and a 1.205 WHIP. Some of those innings were in relief, but still, he has seemed to have put it together and be reliable starting pitcher.

I'm not sure Bailey could ever put up similar numbers over two full seasons, or even one.

[Quatitos]

Hughes has turned into a solid #3 starting pitcher. In 2009 and 2010 combined, he posted a 3.81 ERA, 8.3 K/9, 2.81 KK/BB and a 1.205 WHIP. Some of those innings were in relief, but still, he has seemed to have put it together and be reliable starting pitcher.

I'm not sure Bailey could ever put up similar numbers over two full seasons, or even one.

I wouldn't reference his stats from 2009 since his starting stats that year were pretty bad. As a starter he posted a 5.45 ERA with a 1.5 WHIP and a 2.07 K/BB, he did most of his damage in 09 out of the bullpen with a 1.40 ERA with a .857 WHIP and a 5.00 K/BB. I would expect similar numbers from Bailey if we were to stick him into the BP. As for the argument of how good of a starting pitcher Hughes is, you definitely don't want to use 2009 to support that since Hughes was just not a good starter that year.

On Homers side, as a starter in 20 games in 2009 he put up a 4.53 ERA with a 1.474 WHIP and a 1.65 K/BB. Looking at a bit more advanced stats, Bailey put up a 4.41 FIP and 4.58 xFIP in 2009, versus Hughes' 5.29 FIP and 5.01 xFIP as a starter.

In 2010, where both these guys pitched better stats wise, Homer put up a 4.46 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP and 2.5 K/BB. Hughes on the other hand put up a 4.23 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP and 2.47 K/BB as a starter. Bailey posted a 3.74 FIP and a 3.91 xFIP versus Hughes' 4.30 FIP and 4.37 xFIP. Homer also posted a much better 1.12 (career 1.20) GB/FB ratio last season versus Hughes' 0.76 (career 0.79) GB/FB, and that is huge in a park like GABP.

Hughes had some more success last season than Bailey in terms of results, but I think the ability of the two last season was fairly similar and I would probably take Bailey since he has shown consistent improvement each season and his GB/FB tendencies fit into GABP better than Hughes.

[UPRedsFan]

Once again FIP? and xFIP?

I have no clue what those are and what an average or respectable number is

[MikeThierry]

I think that what needs to be kept in perspective is that Hughes pitches in the AL East. Yes he is on the Yankees but the Red Sox, Rays, and Jays were no push overs at the plate. Who knows what Hughes would do if he pitched in the NL Central on the Reds. Its a hypothetical. However at least keep this factor in mind when judging between the two.

While FB/GB ratio is important, I'm not so sure that Great American Ballpark is more susceptible to giving up HR's than new Yankee Stadium. That place is a launching pad. It might be the team the Yankees put together but it certainly isn't a pitcher friendly park.

I also agree with UPRedsFan. Please bring stats to the table that don't require us to use calculus when figuring it out. Sabermetrics has its place and some of the stats are valid but at least explain it to everyone what you are talking about and why it factors into this discussion.

And no, I will not look it up. The burden is on you to explain it since you are bringing it into the forum.

[Quatitos]

I think that what needs to be kept in perspective is that Hughes pitches in the AL East. Yes he is on the Yankees but the Red Sox, Rays, and Jays were no push overs at the plate. Who knows what Hughes would do if he pitched in the NL Central on the Reds. Its a hypothetical. However at least keep this factor in mind when judging between the two.

Since your bringing that into the argument why don't you explain how big of an impact you can expect that to be :.

I would expect that to be a factor, but the quantity of what impact that would have is debatable and probably too big of a topic to be determined here.

While FB/GB ratio is important, I'm not so sure that Great American Ballpark is more susceptible to giving up HR's than new Yankee Stadium. That place is a launching pad. It might be the team the Yankees put together but it certainly isn't a pitcher friendly park.

I was not implying that Yankee Stadium was any more or less prone to giving up HR's than GABP, just that with Hughes' much lower GB/FB would be less than ideal in a park like GABP when compared to someone with a higher GB/FB ratio like Bailey. I never said anything comparing the parks, just that having a lower GB/FB ratio in GABP is not a good thing, which I think is a reasonable argument.

I also agree with UPRedsFan. Please bring stats to the table that don't require us to use calculus when figuring it out. Sabermetrics has its place and some of the stats are valid but at least explain it to everyone what you are talking about and why it factors into this discussion.

And no, I will not look it up. The burden is on you to explain it since you are bringing it into the forum.

Since it was one of many stats I mentioned I am quite surprised at the apparent hostility I got from using them. FIP does not require calculus when figuring it out, it is just addition and multiplication of several stats that are completely under a pitchers control, such as HR, BB, IBB, HBP, and K's and it is scaled to about the same scale as ERA. If you would like an introduction to FIP then you can look here and some answers regarding FIP and xFIP can be seen here. If you don't want to read, just ignore it, I think the other stats speak well enough. I only brought it up as a sort of "if you understand this stat than you can take this into account, if not just look at the other stats."

My post had a lot more than the comparison of FIP and xFIP between the two, and the reaction to just reading those and suddenly its like "Hey hey, I don't know what that is all your words are now magic nonsense that I can't understand and its your fault."