Thought I'd start a thread about it, since we're all thinking about it. Considering all the upheaval in the Reds starting rotation and Chapman getting blown up yesterday.
It's a long season, but the beginning of this one doesn't look to be too bright.
I see a rough couple of months to start the season, with alot of complaining and jumping off the bandwagon from Reds fans. Then I look for the pitching to settle down or be answered and the Reds to make their move.
We shall see.
Don't know yet, the team is very unpredictable. Lets see what happens this Spring, then evaluate, but I would rather come out the gate smoking.
The Cardinals lost Wainwright for the season, but the REDS lost just as much, if not more with Bronson's mono (recovery time more likely 3 months taking it all the way into July), Bailey and Cueto's beginning the season on the DL, Volquez, Leake and nearly every other pitcher being mostly ineffective.
The REDS have been brought down to the rest of the pack and it's no longer their division to lose as it was one month ago. It's now the Brewer's division to lose with the REDS, Cardinals, and more than likely one surprise team sneaking in to challenge the Brewers.
It kind of puts the REDS in a better position, as they won't have the target on their back all season now. Every game they'll have to struggle and fight to win. It should keep them hungry and allow them to improve as the season moves along each month.
I fully expect to see a completely different REDS team every month. The team we see in April won't be similar to the one we see in May, and the same goes for June, July, August and September. This will be Baker's most difficult season, yet. He'll really have at the top of his game as a Manager. If he wins the Division this year, he really will have earned it. Last year everything sort of fell into place and Dusty was just along for the ride. It should make for a very entertaining season as 88 wins might take the Division. The REDS would have won it last year with 88 victories. Watching the growth of the team should be exciting for everyone.
And, since 88 wins means 74 losses, the 74 losses ought to be plenty to allow all of the "Chicken Littles" around here to scream every week that the sky is falling. There's laughable entertainment in and of itself.
I'll do another golf thread, and when I thought before the pitching mess that par for the season would be tougher than it was from last season, I still think that way, but that it will be more difficult to reach par. A month ago, I had thought that shooting under par this season would be a no-brainer. Last season, par was 81-81 (4-5 for each of the first nine holes and 5-4 for each of the last nine holes). This season, par will be 90-72 (5 Wins and 4 Losses for every nine holes). That's about 2 wins more than what I think this team will likely finish with because of all of the problems with pitching we're going into the season with, but needing those extra 2 wins to make par will be enough of a carrot to reach for that, should we finish the season "Par-of-better", then we should at least finish in a tie or win our division. I can't picture any of the other teams finishing more than 18 games above .500.
"Play Ball!"
Last edited by Kingspoint; 03-27-2011 at 05:57 PM.
hilarious!!!!Originally Posted by Kingspoint
"Trying is the first step towards failure." Homer Simpson
"I wasn't looking too good but I was feeling real well." Keith Richards
Oops!...I'll correct that. Been watching too much "Bonanza". I've got it on The Western Channel right now while I'm typing this.
Adam Cartwright, Adam Wainwright...Carpenter starts with "Car..." I morphed some names together. Not the first time I've done that. Not the best at multi-tasking.
Last edited by Kingspoint; 03-27-2011 at 05:59 PM.
Thought maybe it was too much Southpark
"Trying is the first step towards failure." Homer Simpson
"I wasn't looking too good but I was feeling real well." Keith Richards
I'd feel better if they started Heisey and left him alone. I know he struggled at the end of last season, but how many rookies come up and just play well right from the start without any bumps in the road? I'd venture to guess very few.
I thought we'd at least get into the regular season before this started.
I feel great about this season. The Reds schedule is pretty light in April, allowing the pitchers time to recover.
We have plenty of depth at AAA to make moves if necessary. No need to be on the ledge yet. Remember, this is a winning ball club.
I thought their record was 0-0?
They won the division last year.
Am I wrong about the schedule or depth though, since that was the support for why I'm feeling positive?
Last edited by knoonan991; 03-27-2011 at 07:04 PM.
Aren't some of the other clubs in the NL Central beat up as well?
I'm not sure how this is the Brewers division to lose. Maybe Dusty is going to sell the team on that, but Milwaukee wasn't that much of a threat last year. I know they upgraded their rotation and the Reds' seems to have gotten much worse, but right now, In order to be the champ you have to beat the champ. The Reds should still be the favorite.
We're really not in all that much trouble, even with these pitching injuries. As of right now, we've got our rotation consisting of
Volquez
Arroyo (injury risk perhaps, but still in play)
Wood
Leake
Lecure
...and Maloney as a backup.
We're not desperately scraping the dregs for starters. Willis will be stretched out, just in case. Perhaps Chapman will as well (which could be a good thing in the long run). Bailey and Cueto don't have major injuries that will put them out more than 4 starts. Even if a complication develops, Leake will remain in the rotation, which isn't so bad at all. Here's to depth! Meanwhile the Brewers have lost their #1 starter for several games and the Cards have lost theirs for the entire season, meaning that they will have to start someone far less potent than Lecure, Leake, and Maloney. Here's to depth!
In addition, no position players have taken anything more than a minor hit yet (knock on wood). Other than Gomes (who is improving) and Rolen (who has little to prove in spring training and many able replacements waiting in AAA), the entire squad looks to be primed for the season. AAA is loaded with potential trade pieces and midseason callups.
Since the Reds have Maloney and Lecure their rotation problems aren't that bad. Maloney is ready for the bigs and he had some success last year. The Reds had 8 options for the starting rotation not counting Chapman. So even without Arroyo, Cueto and Bailey to start the season they have plenty of depth. I wouldn't be surprised if Maloney pitches well enough to stick. It depends on how serious Cueto and Bailey's issues are.
The Reds are still in a great position. They had the best offense in the NL last year with everyone returning. They have AAA players at nearly every position who can step in and play.
1B- Alonso
2B- Valaika
ss- Cozart
3B-Francisco
C- Mesoraco
OF- Sappelt
SP- Leake, Maloney, Lecure
That gives them a great chance to compete. Also, the Reds defense should be one of the best again this year, maybe better than last year if Janish plays a lot. That will help their pitching.
Last edited by Roush's socks; 03-27-2011 at 10:56 PM.
Good post. But I'm still nervous about the outset. I know it's a long, long season and alot can happen.
But I think the first month is going to be a rocky road unless the offense just carries this team.
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