BA's Top 31

[cinreds21]

Just got my copy of the 2011 Prospect Handbook and here is their top 31 prospects for the Reds for 2011:

1. Aroldis Chapman, LHP
2. Billy Hamilton, SS/2B
3. Devin Mesoraco, C
4. Yonder Alonso, 1B/Of
5. Yorman Rodriguez, OF
6. Yasmani Grandal, C
7. Juan Francisco, 3B
8. Zach Cozart, SS
9. Todd Frazier, LF/3B/1B
10. Kyle Lotzkar, RHP
11. Ryan Lamarre, OF
12. Drew Cisco, RHP
13. Donnie Joseph, LHP
14. Chris Valaika, 2B/SS
15. Daniel Corcino, RHP
16. Ismael Guillon, LHP
17. Junior Arias, SS
18. Brad Boxberger, RHP
19. Didi Gegorius, SS
20. Dave Sappelt, OF
21. Kyle Waldrop, OF
22. Ronald Torreyes, INF
23. Henry Rodriguez, 2B
24. Neftali Soto, 1B
25. Sam LeCure, RHP
26. Jonathan Correa, RHP
27. Daryl Thompson, RHP
28. Juan Duran, OF
29. Philippe Valiquette, LHP
30. Felix Perez, OF
31. Daniel Tuttle, RHP

Enjoy

[camisadelgolf]

You already got yours? What kind of shipping did you order? I wasn't expecting mine for another couple weeks.

[cinreds21]

You already got yours? What kind of shipping did you order? I wasn't expecting mine for another couple weeks.

I went up to Durham and bought it in person. It's only like 20 minutes from me.

[mth123]

Interesting:

1. Correa is so much lower than Corcino and Guillon -if somebody with some knowledge could diffeentiate the three that would be great.
2. No Puckett or Negron. One w/o the glove for his position. The other w/o the bat. They may both crash and burn.
3. Sappelt 20th. Hmm. I have him a whole lot higher (8th).
4. Joseph 13th. Him too (5th).

Lots of young unproven's like Cisco, Tuttle and Waldrop getting love. Whatever happened to Juan Carlos Sulbaran anyway?

[RedsManRick]

BA list compared to RZ's. Pretty close alignment. Major disagreements are pretty uncommon. RedsZone is much higher on Dave Sappelt, Juan Duran and Danny Dorn. BA is much higher on Drew Cisco, Daniel Corcino and Didi Gregorius.

Prospect		BA	RZ	Diff
Aroldis Chapman, LHP	 1	 1	  0
Billy Hamilton, SS/2B	 2	 5	  3
Devin Mesoraco, C	 3	 2	 -1
Yonder Alonso, 1B/Of	 4	 4	  0
Yorman Rodriguez, OF	 5	 3	 -2
Yasmani Grandal, C	 6	 6	  0
Juan Francisco, 3B	 7	 8 	  1
Zach Cozart, SS		 8	 9	  1
Todd Frazier, LF/3B/1B	 9	 7	 -2
Kyle Lotzkar, RHP	10	15	  5
Ryan Lamarre, OF	11	16 	  5
Drew Cisco, RHP		12	28	 16
Donnie Joseph, LHP	13	11	 -2
Chris Valaika, 2B/SS	14	14	  0
Daniel Corcino, RHP	15	30	 15
Ismael Guillon, LHP	16	12	 -4
Junior Arias, SS	17	18	  1
Brad Boxberger, RHP	18	13	 -5
Didi Gegorius, SS	19	27	  8
Dave Sappelt, OF	20	10	-10
Kyle Waldrop, OF	21     N/A	N/A
Ronald Torreyes, INF	22	20	 -2
Henry Rodriguez, 2B	23	24	  1
Neftali Soto, 1B	24	21	 -3
Sam LeCure, RHP		25	19	N/A
Jonathan Correa, RHP	26	22	 -4
Daryl Thompson, RHP	27	26	 -1
Juan Duran, OF		28	17	-11
Phil Valiquette, LHP	29	31	  2
Felix Perez, OF		30	32	  2
Daniel Tuttle, RHP	31     N/A	N/A
			
Danny Dorn , 1B/OF	N/A	23	N/A
Kris Negron, IF		N/A	25	N/A
Cody Puckett, IF/OF	N/A	29	N/A

[RedsManRick]

Interesting:

1. Correa is so much lower than Corcino and Guillon -if somebody with some knowledge could diffeentiate the three that would be great.
2. No Puckett or Negron. One w/o the glove for his position. The other w/o the bat. They may both crash and burn.
3. Sappelt 20th. Hmm. I have him a whole lot higher (8th).
4. Joseph 13th. Him too (5th).

Lots of young unproven's like Cisco, Tuttle and Waldrop getting love. Whatever happened to Juan Carlos Sulbaran anyway?

BA has never been high on guys who produce but who don't flash major tools and aren't particularly young for their league. I'm sure they see Sappelt as a classic tweener in the Heisey, Denorfia, Clark mold, minus a few inches.

[edabbs44]

BA has never been high on guys who produce but who don't flash major tools and aren't particularly young for their league. I'm sure they see Sappelt as a classic tweener in the Heisey, Denorfia, Clark mold, minus a few inches.

Heisey was Cincy's #4 last year.

[RedsManRick]

Heisey was Cincy's #4 last year.

Interesting. I wonder what has them so down on Sappelt. Physical stature plays a role, I'm sure.

[camisadelgolf]

Interesting. I wonder what has them so down on Sappelt. Physical stature plays a role, I'm sure.

Let's start by looking at their skills. They both hit well for average, but Heisey is the more patient hitter a higher penchant for walking. In terms of power, Heisey could conceivably hit 20-30 home runs, but you could never expect that out of Sappelt because of--like you pointed out--his stature. Sappelt is faster--albeit not by much--but Heisey is by far the better base runner. Sappelt frequently gets caught stealing, and running the bases might be the skill at which Heisey excels the most. Throwing ability? I've always maintained that Sappelt is underrated there, but I remember the biggest knock on him from RedsZone was his arm. Heisey, on the other hand, has a strong arm and is very accurate with it. When it comes to fielding, I don't consider one to be considerably better than the other. Sappelt may have better range, but from what I can tell, Heisey has better hands.

But let's not forget about intangibles. I'm not saying it's necessarily fair, but Chris Heisey has an off-the-charts reputation for hustle and getting the most out of his skills. When it comes to Dave Sappelt, well, quite frankly, he has a bit of an ego.

All in all, Heisey has the edge in almost every category, so it's easy to see why he'd be ranked higher. That said, it wouldn't shock me to see Sappelt have the better career. One thing that concerns me about Heisey is that in 2010, he had 23 walks to 80 strikeouts. That's not horrific, but it seems like ever since he hit AAA, his discipline declined. A trip to Louisville might be all he needs to get him back to the days when he had a .61 BB:K ratio as opposed to the .29 BB:K ratio of 2010.

[reds44]

Speaking of Felix Perez, anybody have an update on how he did last year/the expectations for him this season?

[Mario-Rijo]

Interesting. I wonder what has them so down on Sappelt. Physical stature plays a role, I'm sure.

It's not hard to post good numbers in the minors if you have any talent at all and your aggressive. In the pros that aggression will get you sent back to the minors if gone unchecked. He's alot like Ryan Freel to me, though I think Freel had much more polish about his game, as well he should have I suppose. Sappelt is a potentially solid leadoff hitter and LF, but IMO that is his ceiling. Which puts him closer to their ranking than ours IMO.

That said Mes was what 30 last year when some of us knew better.

[cinreds21]

Speaking of Felix Perez, anybody have an update on how he did last year/the expectations for him this season?

He has these tools but kinda struggled for Carolina. He works really hard. He's no slacker but has a lot to work on. I think his injury when he ran into the wall slowed him down perhaps. BA thinks he's a future backup. I would concur.

[dougdirt]

He has these tools but kinda struggled for Carolina. He works really hard. He's no slacker but has a lot to work on. I think his injury when he ran into the wall slowed him down perhaps. BA thinks he's a future backup. I would concur.

I think the injury certainly had something to do with what happened in Carolina. It was an oblique injury and we often hear about guys come back from those before they are truly ready. The two weeks directly after he returned from the injury, he hit .218 and slugged under .300 as well. Outside of that, he hit .322. The problem was, he simply didn't have a large enough sample in AA to overcome the two week stretch where he could barely hit his weight coming off the injury. I think its likely he is a back up, but also think there is a chance he could be an average starter.

[OnBaseMachine]

The Reds only paid, what, $575K for Felix Perez? Even if he only develops into a 4th or 5th outfielder it was still a great deal for the Reds. If he becomes a solid starter it becomes a huge steal.

[cinreds21]

I think the injury certainly had something to do with what happened in Carolina. It was an oblique injury and we often hear about guys come back from those before they are truly ready. The two weeks directly after he returned from the injury, he hit .218 and slugged under .300 as well. Outside of that, he hit .322. The problem was, he simply didn't have a large enough sample in AA to overcome the two week stretch where he could barely hit his weight coming off the injury. I think its likely he is a back up, but also think there is a chance he could be an average starter.

Also remember, the jump from High-A to Double-A is the biggest jump in the minors.