Most folks think the NL Central will be a 3 team race in 2011. I have been thinking about how the Reds stack up against the Cards & the Brewers. This post is my thoughts on how they stack up against the Cards. I will attempt a fairly novel approach. I look at positions where the teams are approximately equal & then at positions where one team has an advantage. Then at the end I'll add up each teams strengths & weaknesses & see who looks better on paper. As usual any input is appreciated.
1B: Votto (7.4 WAR) vs Pujols (7.3 WAR)
Advantage: even
I can see arguments for both sides. Some would say Votto was a one year wonder but he OPSed 981 in 2009. He is also at least ( ) 4 years younger than Pujols. Pujols's OPS took a hit from the stratosphere last year. I wonder if his elbow is the problem.
Outfield:
Advantage: even
First lets look at Bruce (5.3 WAR) vs Holliday (6.9 WAR). On paper this seems a big win for the Cards. I suspect it may be a slight win for them in 2011 but not as big as it looks. A couple of reasons. Bruce will improve. Simply adding a half a win above replacement for 2011 puts him ahead of Holliday's 2008 & 2009 numbers. If Holliday repeats his near MVPesque 2010 then Bruce won't pass him this year but if Holliday is more like 2008 or 2009 then Bruce may be a better player in 2011.
Now lets look at Stubbs (3.2 WAR) vs Rasmus (3.5 WAR). I'm going to give a slight edge to the Cards on this one as well. Both are very good young players but Rasmus did outperform Stubbs in 2010 & is 2 years younger. However, Stubbs is a bit of a wild card for the Reds. The league could adjust to him OR he could bust out & steal 60 bases. That or a kinder UZR rating would boost his WAR higher.
Last lets look at left field. Gomes (-0.1 WAR)/Lewis (0.9 WAR) vs Berkman (2.1 WAR)/Jay (1.1 WAR).
Gomes's WAR value should be better in 2011 if he is used properly (only starts vs LHP). I suspect the Reds platoon will produce a solid WAR value. Maybe somewhere between 2-3. Berkman (IMO) will be a disaster for the Cardinals in RF. The last time he played the outfield was 2007. The last time he played the outfield well was 2003 (not a typo). He is 35 years old. At this point in his career he is either a first baseman or DH. I doubt he can play LF much less RF. Even if he matches his 2010 with the bat his defense will subtract a lot from his value.
I think the Cards may have some advantage in Holliday>Bruce & Rasmus>Stubbs. But I feel this is wiped out by Berkman<<Lewis/Gomes. I am calling the overall outfield even. I think if there is an advantage it is probably in the Reds favor.
2B: Phillips (4.0 WAR) vs Schunmaker (-0.2)
Advantage: big edge to the Reds
SS: Janish (1.0 WAR)/Renteria (1.3 WAR) vs Theriot (0.0 WAR)/Punto (1.4 WAR)
Advantage: even
Both teams wish they had better options here. Unless someone catches lightning in a bottle this looks pretty even.
3B: Rolen (5.0 WAR) vs Freese (1.5 WAR)
Advantage: Reds
Even if we knock off a couple of WARs in 2011 the Reds still come out on top.
Catchers: Hernandez (2.6 WAR)/Hanigan (2.2 WAR) vs Molina (2.6 WAR)/Laird (0.2 WAR)
Advantage: Reds
Molina's OPS was 671 vs Hernandez (792) & Hanigan (834). Yes Molina is a better defensive catcher than Ramon but overall I think the Reds duo is better than Molina plus a replacement level player. It looks to me like Molina would be better if the Cards had a better backup. Maybe he is starting to weak down a bit.
Bench/Depth:
Advantage: Reds
The Cards have a couple of decent bench guys like Jay & Punto. The Reds have their own solid bench guys. However the Reds have guys in AAA who could hold the fort down in case of injury whereas the Cards do not.
SP3: Wood (102 ip, 1.1 whip, 3.51 era) vs Garcia (163 ip, 1.3 whip, 2.70 era)
Advantage: even
I picked these two to start with. Both are young lefties who had success in the rookie years. they seem comparable.
SP4: Arroyo (215 ip, 1.1 whip, 3.88 era) vs Westbrook (202 ip, 1.33 whip, 4.22 era)
Advantage: even. maybe a slight edge to the Reds
One thing to remember is that Westbrook pitched 34 innings in 2008 & none in 2009.
SP1: Cueto (185 ip, 1.3 whip, 3.64 era) vs Wainright (230 ip, 1.1 whip, 2.42 era)
Advantage: big edge to the Cards
Cueto is a nice pitcher & probably the Reds best bet for 2011 success. But even a nice "#2 starter" is dwarfed by a Cy Young caliber guy like Wainright.
SP2: Volquez (62 ip, 1.5 whip, 4.31 era) vs Carpenter (235 ip, 1.2 whip, 3.22 era)
Advantage: big edge to the Cards
Volquez is a fairly big unknown for 2011. I'm cautiously optimistic.
Yet Carpenter is another Cy Young caliber pitcher.
SP5: Bailey (109 ip, 1.4 whip, 4.46 era)/Leake (138 ip, 1.5 whip, 4.23 era) vs Lohse (92 ip, 1.8 whip, 6.55 era)
Advantage: big edge to the Reds
The numbers speak for themselves. Lohse was a decent pitcher but has been battling injuries.
SP6/rotation depth.
Advantage: big edge to the Reds
The Reds have Leake/Bailey, Chapman, Maloney & Lecure.
The Cards have several starters with the potential to break down. If they do they have Blake Hawksworth, Ian Snell & Miguel Batista.
Bullpen:
Advantage: Reds
This one is tough due to the volatility of relievers. The Reds have a nice deep pen. The Cards have some guys who seem to get the job done. I suspect they don't have the depth the Reds do if someone goes down or goes bad. Also they are weak in terms of left handed relievers.
Lets sum up:
The Cards big (and only) advantages lie in their two TOR starters.
The Reds have big advantages at 2B & 5th starter/rotation edpth.
While we would all love to have two TOR starters the Reds big advantages at these other spots may make up for this. Phillips was 4 wins better than Schumaker last year. Is Wainwright worth 4 wins over Cueto?
Lets say Carpenter is worth a ton more than Volquez. How much more is Bailey, Leake & the Reds 7th/8th/9th starters worth vs Lohse & the St Louis dregs? I mentioned in another thread that the average playoff team in 2010 had 19 games started by their 6th best (or worse) starter. Should that fate hit the Reds & Cards equally then the Reds are in a much better position.
Reds have advantages at 3B, catcher, position player depth & bullpen.
If all five of the Cards starters stay healthy and Berkman can play RF defensively then I think the Cards would beat the Reds. To m the odds of this happening seem very low.
IMO it seems the Reds are a better team on paper than the Cards in 2011.
Thoughts?