Phillips wonders about future

[Ron Madden]

What do you think about Bradon's future with the Cincinnati Reds?

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/

[camisadelgolf]

I think they'll find a way to keep him around, even if they have to overpay. He means too much to the team right now unless Zack Cozart forces himself into the lineup somehow.

[RedsBaron]

What do you think about Bradon's future?

It's in front of him.

[Ron Madden]

It's in front of him.

[Jpup]

I think it will be hard for the Reds to find a team that wants to pay Phillips 11 or 12 million per year. I'd trade him, but I can't see the Reds getting fair value without sending a bunch of money with him.

[RedsManRick]

Phillips is a very good player, but I don't think it would be wise for the Reds to pay him market value during his decline phase. It's not that he would be overpaid, per se', but that the Reds can't afford to pay market value at every position and are particularly deep with solid 2B prospects. I'd rather have that money to spend elsewhere.

[mth123]

Phillips is a very good player, but I don't think it would be wise for the Reds to pay him market value during his decline phase. It's not that he would be overpaid, per se', but that the Reds can't afford to pay market value at every position and are particularly deep with solid 2B prospects. I'd rather have that money to spend elsewhere.

I don't think the Reds are that deep in 2B prospects and until Hamilton comes along, they will take a severe drop in production from Phillips to the others. I'd try to parlay next year's $12 Million option into a 2 year extension and hope that Hamilton will be ready in 2014. The Reds middle infield depth still looks like a bunch of hitters who can't defend and defenders who can't hit from here. I think Cozart could be a passable offense/defense combo at SS, but beyond him I'm just not convinced.

[hebroncougar]

Phillips is a very good player, but I don't think it would be wise for the Reds to pay him market value during his decline phase. It's not that he would be overpaid, per se', but that the Reds can't afford to pay market value at every position and are particularly deep with solid 2B prospects. I'd rather have that money to spend elsewhere.

This.......I did find it rather humorous that Fay went out of his way to make sure he said "I'm not saying the Reds should trade him", was it Phillips who got his feelings hurt last year when Fay didn't do an interview on him right away in Spring Training? I like Phillips, but paying him $10 million + is insane on the Reds budget.

[camisadelgolf]

The Reds can afford Phillips in 2012. 2013? A lot of things would need to happen to make that work.

[Mario-Rijo]

His defense no doubt would be tough to replace but unless he completes the transformation he started early last season at the plate (and in the 2nd half didn't stick with) his defense will continue to slowly worsen and he won't be worth the money beyond his current deal. The man has great talent, but also has some serious stubborn qualities that forbid him from improving his game, I can't back giving another big contract to a guy like that. This year should tell the tale on whether or not his transformation will continue or cease, if it's the former you accept the option if it's the latter you got to consider declining it if you can't deal him.

2010
Phillips - .275/.332/.430 - 18 HR, 33 Doubles, 16 SB, 12 CS
Cozart - .255/.310/.416 - 17 HR, 30 Doubles, 30 SB, 4 CS

I know it's the minor leagues but frankly Cozart is a very similar player and though I suspect he doesn't quite have the talent Brandon does, the difference isn't worth a multi year contract at this juncture. Especially when you consider Cozarts defense is likely to be pretty doggone good himself and he was playing at a place much tougher to hit HR's.

[mdccclxix]

Phillips is a very good player, but I don't think it would be wise for the Reds to pay him market value during his decline phase. It's not that he would be overpaid, per se', but that the Reds can't afford to pay market value at every position and are particularly deep with solid 2B prospects. I'd rather have that money to spend elsewhere.

I agree, although I'm not sure what his market value will be after 2011 when it's time to restructure that 12 million for 2012 and beyond. Phillips, like Bruce, has said repeatedly that he wants to be in Cincinnati for a long time. I think he can produce until he's 35 or 36, which is basically 2015 or 2016.

2b seems to be a production friendly spot, although that doesn't stop people from wearying on 30+ guys like Hudson or Sanchez. I really think Phillips is somewhere in the mix with these guys below, perhaps right in the middle. I think 2-3 WAR a year is likely for him.

Orlando Hudson:
30 y/o - 1.5 WAR
31 y/o - 2.9 WAR
32 y/o - 3.1 WAR

Figgins:
30 - 2.7
31 - 6.1
32 - .6

Polanco
30 - 5.4
31 - 1.2
32 - 5.2
33 - 2.8
34 - 3.1
35 - 3.7

Sanchez
30 - .8
31 - 1.8
32 - 2.7


Phillips is already not that fast. If he can craft his way forward without getting injured, I think he has the talent to continue a .275/.335/.425 line with great D for quite some time. At 5-8 million a year, it's worth it. It's also pretty darn replaceable.

[WVRedsFan]

Brandon will be 30 years old on June 26th. If the Reds pick up the option, in his final year, he'd only be 31 with 2 or three good years left. I imagine the Reds will find a way to keep him here until 2015 providing he plays well.

[RedsManRick]

Phillips is already not that fast. If he can craft his way forward without getting injured, I think he has the talent to continue a .275/.335/.425 line with great D for quite some time. At 5-8 million a year, it's worth it. It's also pretty darn replaceable.

Wins in free agency went for ~$5M this offseason. PThere is relatively little chance Phillips gets significantly better moving forward. There is a very real chance he declines. The average rate of decline is about 0.5 wins per year. Let's call it 8 wins over the next 3 years and that's worth $40M.

Phillips will make $11.25M in 2011. He will thus most likely earn every penny. If the Reds don't pick up his 2012 contract, he will earn something north of $10M. Phillips knows this. The Reds know this. There's absolutely no way he resigns for an AAV less than his currently salary.

But it's not about that. It's about how the Reds can best allocate their available payroll down the road. With all of these long term deals, the Reds are starting to build a pretty high salary floor. I have no problems with Phillips this year or next. But I don't think Phillips is going to take a short-term extension (say through 2014) that takes him in to his early-mid 30's. There is simply too much risk that he declines quickly and loses the opportunity to cash in. 2013 likely represents his last chance at a big payday - a 5/60 type payday. While I'm happy to see the Reds pay him his fair value this year and next, I'd not want to have such a big commitment beyond that to a player on the wrong side of 30 at a position where guys don't tend to age well.

Hudson just finished his age 32 season and while he's still a contributor, he's not nearly the guy he was at 29. Robbie Alomar and Ryne Sandberg both fell off a cliff at 34 -- and those are two of the best of all time. Few have the success of Jeter or Utley. Given how much of Phillips' value comes from his defensive range and ability to crush a fastball from a lefty, I don't think he's going to age well.

[mth123]

Phillips situation is one of the reasons that I think this is the year to go for it and after 2012 the team will start going backward. 2013 will be when the Reds begin losing players from the current roster and the next wave of minor leaguers are a downgrade.

The deal that Arroyo got should have gone to Phillips. By 2013 the backfills for the rotation should be able to replace Arroyo, but I don't see a backfill to replace Phillips or Rolen. With the big raises already commited, I doubt that there will be money to go get a replacement.

[fearofpopvol1]

His defense no doubt would be tough to replace but unless he completes the transformation he started early last season at the plate (and in the 2nd half didn't stick with) his defense will continue to slowly worsen and he won't be worth the money beyond his current deal. The man has great talent, but also has some serious stubborn qualities that forbid him from improving his game, I can't back giving another big contract to a guy like that. This year should tell the tale on whether or not his transformation will continue or cease, if it's the former you accept the option if it's the latter you got to consider declining it if you can't deal him.

2010
Phillips - .275/.332/.430 - 18 HR, 33 Doubles, 16 SB, 12 CS
Cozart - .255/.310/.416 - 17 HR, 30 Doubles, 30 SB, 4 CS

I know it's the minor leagues but frankly Cozart is a very similar player and though I suspect he doesn't quite have the talent Brandon does, the difference isn't worth a multi year contract at this juncture. Especially when you consider Cozarts defense is likely to be pretty doggone good himself and he was playing at a place much tougher to hit HR's.

Don't forget, Phillips played injured for most of last year. No telling what he would've been had his hand not been badly injured.