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Thread: What are your projections for Aroldis Chapman in 2011?

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    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    What are your projections for Aroldis Chapman in 2011?

    I know we have some Chapman discussions going on currently but this thread is a bit different - what are you expecting out of Chapman this season now that it's pretty much a foregone conclusion that he will spend the season working out of the bullpen. I think it will be similar to what we saw in September - low ERA, a ton of strikeouts, and a lot of excited fans.

    My projection:

    85 IP, 115 K's (12.2 K/9), 3.50 BB/9, 2.25 ERA

    I think at times we'll see him get six or seven outs if needed.
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    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: What are your projections for Aroldis Chapman in 2011?

    By the way, here are the fans projections for Chapman from Fangraphs. They have him making 10 starts.

    98 IP, 42 walks, 127 K's, 2.95 ERA, 2.7 WAR

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...233&position=P
    I miss Adam Dunn.

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: What are your projections for Aroldis Chapman in 2011?

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    I know we have some Chapman discussions going on currently but this thread is a bit different - what are you expecting out of Chapman this season now that it's pretty much a foregone conclusion that he will spend the season working out of the bullpen. I think it will be similar to what we saw in September - low ERA, a ton of strikeouts, and a lot of excited fans.

    My projection:

    85 IP, 115 K's (12.2 K/9), 3.50 BB/9, 2.25 ERA

    I think at times we'll see him get six or seven outs if needed.
    I think that's about right.
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    Pitching is the thing WVRedsFan's Avatar
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    Re: What are your projections for Aroldis Chapman in 2011?

    I think he'll be starting some by the AS break. Ten sounds about right. I don't see him getting many saves with Codero around (and Dusty's stuborness about giving the ball to his closer), but OBM's numbers are about right.
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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: What are your projections for Aroldis Chapman in 2011?

    Does anyone honestly believe that he is going to get save chances before Masset? Outside of one month in the last two seasons, Nick Masset has been lights out dominant (heck, you can say he has been even with his terrible April as over the last two seasons he has a 2.89 ERA with 156 strikeouts in 152.7 innings). If we excuse his April of 2010, the guy has posted a 2.12 ERA over the last two seasons.

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    Re: What are your projections for Aroldis Chapman in 2011?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Does anyone honestly believe that he is going to get save chances before Masset?
    I do.

    Dusty can spin it as a match-up thing, allowing Cordero to save face and keep his confidence up. Masset stays in the same role that allowed him to be that dominant pitcher of the past two seasons. And Chapman becomes another face of the franchise.

    I'm guessing he vultures 10 wins, has a K rate of around 12.5, a miniscule ERA, and about 15 saves. His control will desert him at times (a 3.5 BB rate seems low to me), but his H/IP will be the lowest in the game. Some votes for ROY, but he won't win. (Unless the rest of the candidates are average, at best.)
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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: What are your projections for Aroldis Chapman in 2011?

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    I do.

    Dusty can spin it as a match-up thing, allowing Cordero to save face and keep his confidence up. Masset stays in the same role that allowed him to be that dominant pitcher of the past two seasons. And Chapman becomes another face of the franchise.

    I'm guessing he vultures 10 wins, has a K rate of around 12.5, a miniscule ERA, and about 15 saves. His control will desert him at times (a 3.5 BB rate seems low to me), but his H/IP will be the lowest in the game. Some votes for ROY, but he won't win. (Unless the rest of the candidates are average, at best.)
    So you think that Dusty is going to give a rookie "match up" saves over a guy who has been utterly dominant for the Reds the last two seasons? Regardless of how good Chapman's stuff might be, I would take Masset all day out of the bullpen for 2011.

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    Re: What are your projections for Aroldis Chapman in 2011?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    So you think that Dusty is going to give a rookie "match up" saves over a guy who has been utterly dominant for the Reds the last two seasons? Regardless of how good Chapman's stuff might be, I would take Masset all day out of the bullpen for 2011.
    Absolutely. Masset's right-handed. So's Cordero.

    Chapman, OTOH, is a lefty.

    Might not mean much in terms of effectiveness, but it would smooth over a lot of possible hard feelings from Chapman (the future) and Cordero (the present) if Baker sold it that way. And Dusty is all about a harmonious clubhouse.

    As for Masset's possible hurt feelings, Baker can explain that he's needed in that set-up role and is right-handed just like Cordero.

    As to the argument of Masset or Chapman, it's a red herring. I'd take both over Cordero, but it's his job to lose, largely. He could only lose it two ways:

    1) Season-ending injury
    2) A complete blowup of epic proportions. (Think an 8+ ERA in June.) At the same time, the Reds would still have to be be close enough for there to be a reason to make the switch (even an ineffective closer is more valuable on the trade market than many middle relievers).
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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: What are your projections for Aroldis Chapman in 2011?

    If someone is going to start taking away saves from Cordero, based on everything we know right now, it absolutely should be Nick Masset and it shouldn't even be a debate. He has two full seasons of near dominance under his belt, very good stuff and he has been there done that in terms of pitching late in games over a long period of time.

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    Re: What are your projections for Aroldis Chapman in 2011?

    Talking to Nick, I get the impression that he believes he's the heir apparent to Cordero. It's definitely a job he wants to have and is really excited about. If the Reds extend Cordero (anything's possible, right?), that could change things, but based on what I've heard from inside sources, Masset is seen as the closer of the future.

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    Re: What are your projections for Aroldis Chapman in 2011?

    I think Masset is the leading candidate to replace Cordero as the closer once he leaves town, but keep an eye on Jose Arredondo too. When healthy, his stuff is filthy. 94-96 mph fastball, a splitter that drops off the table, and a nice slider too. According to Jocketty, he is recovering nicely from Tommy John surgery. I think he'll be a key contributor to the Reds bullpen this season. Another darkhorse candidate to replace Cordero someday is Donnie Joseph. His minor league numbers are sick - 2.40 ERA and 39 BB/145 K (13.4 K/) in 97.1 innings.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

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    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: What are your projections for Aroldis Chapman in 2011?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Does anyone honestly believe that he is going to get save chances before Masset? Outside of one month in the last two seasons, Nick Masset has been lights out dominant (heck, you can say he has been even with his terrible April as over the last two seasons he has a 2.89 ERA with 156 strikeouts in 152.7 innings). If we excuse his April of 2010, the guy has posted a 2.12 ERA over the last two seasons.
    I kind of get the sense that the Reds don't trust Chapman enough yet.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: What are your projections for Aroldis Chapman in 2011?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I kind of get the sense that the Reds don't trust Chapman enough yet.
    The question is should anybody?

    Chapman has great stuff and looks great, almost unhittable at times. But he tends to come unraveled when people work the count and get on base. Until he learns to pitch in less than perfect situations (part of the maturing process) I don't think anybody should trust him fully.

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    Re: What are your projections for Aroldis Chapman in 2011?

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    I think Masset is the leading candidate to replace Cordero as the closer once he leaves town, but keep an eye on Jose Arredondo too. When healthy, his stuff is filthy. 94-96 mph fastball, a splitter that drops off the table, and a nice slider too. According to Jocketty, he is recovering nicely from Tommy John surgery. I think he'll be a key contributor to the Reds bullpen this season. Another darkhorse candidate to replace Cordero someday is Donnie Joseph. His minor league numbers are sick - 2.40 ERA and 39 BB/145 K (13.4 K/) in 97.1 innings.
    I'll admit I don't know much about Arredondo, but from what I have seen Tommy John participants take some time to recover their stuff - particularly control. In any case, I don't expect him to be more than league average this year. Next year may be a different story.


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