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Thread: Can the Cardinals win NL Central?

  1. #1
    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
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    Can the Cardinals win NL Central?

    Here's a Q&A article from St Louis.

    http://www.stltoday.com/sports/colum...27992bc8b.html

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    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: Can the Cardinals win NL Central?

    That was a very entertaining read. Lots of delusion over in their camp.

    The Reds are coming off a 91-win season in which Scott Rolen gave them an MVP-caliber first half, Joey Votto gave them an MVP season and they won a disproportionate number of games late. There is reason that those elements will seek a return to the mean this season.
    Um.... what Joe?

    The Cincinnati Reds are the next best contenders because of their pitching depth, although their offense appears a bit shy. Then Milwaukee will be next with the Chicago Cubs as an outside shot. .
    Yeah, the best offense in the NL that lost.... well.... no one.... yeah their offense does seem a bit shy, right?

    I think the Cardinals slight favorites -- they have the best position player and best starting pitcher in the division, with a strong supporting cast behind them
    That's clearly debateable.

  4. #3
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Can the Cardinals win NL Central?

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    That was a very entertaining read. Lots of delusion over in their camp.

    The Reds are coming off a 91-win season in which Scott Rolen gave them an MVP-caliber first half, Joey Votto gave them an MVP season and they won a disproportionate number of games late. There is reason that those elements will seek a return to the mean this season.
    Um.... what Joe?
    There is some truth to this. Does Votto play at a MVP level again? Does Rolen play at an All Star level again? The Reds got very good years out of a lot of players and didn't upgrade substantially at any position. They are counting on their younger players to take a step up. IMO its a valid question.

    The Cincinnati Reds are the next best contenders because of their pitching depth, although their offense appears a bit shy. Then Milwaukee will be next with the Chicago Cubs as an outside shot. .
    Yeah, the best offense in the NL that lost.... well.... no one.... yeah their offense does seem a bit shy, right?
    If you were to ask me if the Reds had the best offense in the NL last year I would have disagreed. To me their offense was missing something, another batter to compliment Votto. Its still a question heading into 2011. So yea I think their offense appears a bit shy. Valid point.

    I think the Cardinals slight favorites -- they have the best position player and best starting pitcher in the division, with a strong supporting cast behind them
    That's clearly debateable.
    I am a huge Votto fan but Pujols is still the best player in the division and probably the game. They both had similar seasons with Votto getting the MVP because the Reds won the division.

    I read the article and came away thinking it was a homer job of an article. No one predicted against the Cards. The only think I agree on is that the Pirates and Astros will be bad next season. If I were predicting I would predict:

    1. Reds
    2. Brewers
    3. Cards

    Your top dog until someone takes you down. The Reds took the Cards down last season and look to stay at the top. The Brewers made some big moves in the off season and look to be legit contenders. I think they need a fast start in order to stay relevant. If they don't start off fast look for a full out fire sale mid season with both Fielder and Grienke being moved. The Cards remain up here because of two TOR pitchers as well as two MVP caliber position players. I do see more injury concerns on the Cards than any other team in the division. Carpernter is always an injury risk, Wainright was shut down at the end of last season, and Berkman is aging and I doubt he can play a full season.
    Last edited by bucksfan2; 02-02-2011 at 03:17 PM.

  5. #4
    Member medford's Avatar
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    Re: Can the Cardinals win NL Central?

    How long is it going to take the Cards to realize Berkman can't cut out in LF? That team could be really, really bad defensively.

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    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: Can the Cardinals win NL Central?

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    There is some truth to this. Does Votto play at a MVP level again? Does Rolen play at an All Star level again? The Reds got very good years out of a lot of players and didn't upgrade substantially at any position. They are counting on their younger players to take a step up. IMO its a valid question.
    Votto may not win the MVP again this year, but there is no rational reason to believe he won't be a .950+ OPS hitter. His season wasn't really an outlier compared to his career numbers.

    The comments also refuse to acknowledge how young the Reds are, and a lot of their players still have not even reached their peak yet, and if you look at the jumps that Stubbs and Bruce made over the last few months, it's likely the Reds will be an even stronger force next year.



    If you were to ask me if the Reds had the best offense in the NL last year I would have disagreed. To me their offense was missing something, another batter to compliment Votto. Its still a question heading into 2011. So yea I think their offense appears a bit shy. Valid point.
    The Reds led the NL in runs last year, and scored 54 more runs than the Cardinals. Best offense in the NL.


    I am a huge Votto fan but Pujols is still the best player in the division and probably the game. They both had similar seasons with Votto getting the MVP because the Reds won the division.
    These statements are opinions disguised as facts, much like the statements made in the article.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Can the Cardinals win NL Central?

    It never ceases to amaze me how hard it is for people to get away from their own biases -- even when they know they have them. Wheeler seems like the only truly objective guy in the bunch. I'm sure the Reds' hometown guys would be no better -- they be suggesting that the division is close but that the Reds are the "slight favorites".

    Just funny to me how transparent the evaluation process is. Step 1) Arrive at conclusion based on intuition (which is highly colored by bias). Step 2) Find evidence that supports your conclusion and ignore/omit that which does not.

    But it's really the simplistic statements that drive me nuts. Rick Hummel does absolutely nothing to support his apparent assertion that it is your 2 best position players and pitchers which determine the quality of the team. Goold only talks about the rotations and argues that the Cards' is the best in part because it has "five starters in place". Borowsky argues that the Cards have a strong support cast, when they may very well have the weakest middle infield in baseball.

    I understand the nature of an article like that. You don't win any friends by talking down the home team. But still, it's like eating bit-o-honey candies. Not only are they not good for you, but they don't really taste that good either. But hey, at least it's candy, right?
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 02-02-2011 at 03:39 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  8. #7
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Can the Cardinals win NL Central?

    To bucksfan, best offense in the NL does not mean it is the perfect offense, just that they were better than all the other teams in the NL...which they were. Who was better than the Reds in 2010?

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    Re: Can the Cardinals win NL Central?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I understand the nature of an article like that. You don't win any friends by talking down the home team. But still, it's like eating bit-o-honey candies. Not only are they not good for you, but they don't really taste that good either. But hey, at least it's candy, right?
    I like Bit-O-Honey's I think they taste good.

    Not everyone spends their baseball time "evaluating" some just ingest the candy that the paper feeds them, after all once it's read it's used to line the birdcage, it's not exactly baseball grad school if it's in the paper.

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    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Can the Cardinals win NL Central?

    I know Vegas is not the know all end all, and some of their odds are skewed to how the general public is betting, so they are not necessarily the actual odds.

    But today the odds on sportsbook.com for the NL Central for 2011 are

    STL even
    CIN +300
    MIL +350

    So I can't say it is crazy for someone to predict the Cards winning it.

  11. #10
    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: Can the Cardinals win NL Central?

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    I know Vegas is not the know all end all, and some of their odds are skewed to how the general public is betting, so they are not necessarily the actual odds.

    But today the odds on sportsbook.com for the NL Central for 2011 are

    STL even
    CIN +300
    MIL +350

    So I can't say it is crazy for someone to predict the Cards winning it.
    Those odds surprise the heck out of me. I see TONS of value in the Reds there.

    And I'm not suggesting it's crazy for someone to predict the Cards to win it. I'm not even criticizing the STL writers for picking the Cardinals. It's very realistic that they win the division. But a lot of their comments to support their "analysis" are just either plain wrong, or just biased, unsupported opinions.

  12. #11
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Can the Cardinals win NL Central?

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    Those odds surprise the heck out of me. I see TONS of value in the Reds there.

    And I'm not suggesting it's crazy for someone to predict the Cards to win it. I'm not even criticizing the STL writers for picking the Cardinals. It's very realistic that they win the division. But a lot of their comments to support their "analysis" are just either plain wrong, or just biased, unsupported opinions.
    Well go get you some of them sweet odds my friend.

    Oh, and if anyone wants some action on the Pirates at +10000, just PM me and I'll set up (pocket the money) the transaction for you.

    But Homer, I do agree...the analysis was totally unsupported.

  13. #12
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Can the Cardinals win NL Central?

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    To bucksfan, best offense in the NL does not mean it is the perfect offense, just that they were better than all the other teams in the NL...which they were. Who was better than the Reds in 2010?
    To me it just seemed as if the Reds were bolstered by a higher share of outlier games than other teams. To me it just seemed at times as if they struggled mightily to score runs and then would go and play the Astros and score 15 and 12 runs in back to back games.

    If I were taking teams over the Reds based upon my perception of offense I would take the Phillies, Rockies, and Brewers offense over the Reds. IMO they have the potential to be a top 5 offense in the NL.

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    Re: Can the Cardinals win NL Central?

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    To me it just seemed as if the Reds were bolstered by a higher share of outlier games than other teams. To me it just seemed at times as if they struggled mightily to score runs and then would go and play the Astros and score 15 and 12 runs in back to back games.

    If I were taking teams over the Reds based upon my perception of offense I would take the Phillies, Rockies, and Brewers offense over the Reds. IMO they have the potential to be a top 5 offense in the NL.
    If it was true that the Reds were bolstered by a higher share of outlier games, their expected W-L record based on run differential wouldn't have been one win more than they actually got.

  15. #14
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: Can the Cardinals win NL Central?

    Can anyone else see the Brewers in 1st in August? If not, why not? They've got two aces, a strong 3rd, and an offense to go nuts with. They're a "darkhorse", but should be picked 1st as often or more than any other team. Perhaps a weak bullpen will do them in?

  16. #15
    Boom Goes the Dynamite Screwball's Avatar
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    Re: Can the Cardinals win NL Central?

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    To me it just seemed as if the Reds were bolstered by a higher share of outlier games than other teams. To me it just seemed at times as if they struggled mightily to score runs and then would go and play the Astros and score 15 and 12 runs in back to back games.
    Yeah, all those runs they scored those few games don't really count. You can only factor in the games where they didn't score a bunch, because those games where they scored a lot makes them rank higher than where I think they should be.


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