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Thread: Speedy Stubbs is key for 2011

  1. #1
    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
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    Speedy Stubbs is key for 2011

    Good stuff from one of my favorite Reds Beat-Writers of all-time John Erardi.

    http://news.cincinnati.com/article/2...euUh6kaI7ng%3D

    Here's another very good piece from Erardi.

    http://news.cincinnati.com/article/2...out-2011-Reds-

    .
    Last edited by Ron Madden; 02-05-2011 at 04:34 AM.

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    THAT'S A FACT JACK!! GAC's Avatar
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    Re: Speedy Stubbs is key for 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by Ron Madden View Post
    Good stuff from one of my favorite Reds Beat-Writers of all-time John Erardi.

    http://news.cincinnati.com/article/2...euUh6kaI7ng%3D
    I really like Erardi too. Loved this from the article....

    The point: Pay attention to how many outs a guy makes, regardless of how he makes them. Strikeouts aren’t all that big of a deal, especially when a guy does so many other things well.

    Besides, players tend to strike out a little less the more plate experience they gain. Judging by the mixed results of players trying to strike out less, and judging by Stubbs’ already general excellence in every other phase of the game, the Reds would do well to eschew the “cutdown on the strikeouts” theme with the man from Texarkana.
    Stubbs, as well as Bruce, have all the tools. What they lack, needs to gain, is experience. They both had their ups/downs and inconsistency at the ML level, and you're going to have that with youth/immaturity. Just be patient with these guys, and allow them to make those adjustments and get acclimated.
    "panic" only comes from having real expectations

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    First Time Caller SunDeck's Avatar
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    Re: Speedy Stubbs is key for 2011

    I understand what Erardi is saying about strikeouts, but at the same time I don't understand why a player wouldn't be concerned with improving in that area. An out is an out, for sure, but a ball in play has a higher chance at being a man on base than a strikeout. And there is also a lot of value in being able to foul off a lot of balls, protecting the plate and making the pitcher throw as many pitches as possible.
    Next Reds manager, second shooter. --Confirmed on Redszone.

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    Bread Gloves Razor Shines's Avatar
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    Re: Speedy Stubbs is key for 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by SunDeck View Post
    I understand what Erardi is saying about strikeouts, but at the same time I don't understand why a player wouldn't be concerned with improving in that area. An out is an out, for sure, but a ball in play has a higher chance at being a man on base than a strikeout. And there is also a lot of value in being able to foul off a lot of balls, protecting the plate and making the pitcher throw as many pitches as possible.
    Well it all depends on how they go about improving their strike out rate. What seems to happen often is guys tend to get more aggressive giving up some of their patience. They swing at more borderline strikes giving themselves up with weak outs. If you're trying to avoid the strike out then you do what you can to keep from getting to 2 strikes, even if that means swinging at some pitches that you shouldn't.

    I agree with Erardi. If Stubbs improves his strike out rate it'll come from experience and it shouldn't come from changing his approach.

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    Re: Speedy Stubbs is key for 2011

    Good piece from Erardi. The less people harp on Stubbs needing to bunt regularly, the better.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    We Need Our Myths reds1869's Avatar
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    Re: Speedy Stubbs is key for 2011

    Erardi is the best. I had the chance to meet him this summer and I'm very glad I did!

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    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: Speedy Stubbs is key for 2011

    I've been a huge Stubbs fan ever since I saw him play for the first time. I'm really hoping to see him turn the corner this year and continue his progression, but for some reason I get the feeling he may regress slightly at the plate. That being said, I expect a lot more people to take notice of his defense this year.

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    We Need Our Myths reds1869's Avatar
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    Re: Speedy Stubbs is key for 2011

    If you want some entertainment, read the comments section where posters are ripping on Erardi and "stat geeks." They are foaming at the mouth over the suggestion that a strikeout is just another out.

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    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Speedy Stubbs is key for 2011

    That is a great article. Another excellent piece from John Erardi with some help from Joel Luckhaupt.

    I really enjoyed watching Stubbs play last season. I was so glad to see the Reds stick with him through the struggles despite some screaming from fans to send him down. He's fun to watch at the plate and on the bases but I really enjoy watching him on defense. He gets great jumps and makes everything look easy out there. I remember quite a few times him tracking down a ball in the gap that I thought was an easy double or triple off the bat. You won't see him on very many highlight reels because he catches balls standing up that most other guys have to dive for.

    In the Q&A, Stubbs says his favorite moment of the 2010 season was the Jay Bruce walk-off clinching home run. That moment may not have been possible if not for Stubbs' defense. If you may recall, he robbed Carlos Lee of a 2-run HR in straightaway CF earlier in that game.

    I agree with the premise of the article. The Reds have a special talent in Stubbs. As early as this season I think we could see him develop into a 30/30 type of player (I think he'll eventually be a 40-50 stolen base guy).
    I miss Adam Dunn.

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    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Speedy Stubbs is key for 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    I've been a huge Stubbs fan ever since I saw him play for the first time. I'm really hoping to see him turn the corner this year and continue his progression, but for some reason I get the feeling he may regress slightly at the plate. That being said, I expect a lot more people to take notice of his defense this year.
    It will be interesting to see Johnny Uzr's opinion of him this year.

  12. #11
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Speedy Stubbs is key for 2011

    The comments of that article made my head explode. Some super glue has me back together, though I am looking a little cartoonish right now.

    As far as strike out improvement goes, if you can do so without changing the strengths of your game, go for it. But if you pull an Adam Dunn and change your game while lowing your strikeouts, its not really a good idea. (He swung more both inside and outside the zone, made less contact and had a drastically lower OBP despite a drastically higher average - Fangraphs article from yesterady)

    Again though, most of the criticism of Stubbs and players like him come from what Erardi talks about in the article.... people focusing on what guys can't do instead of what they can.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Speedy Stubbs is key for 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    The comments of that article made my head explode. Some super glue has me back together, though I am looking a little cartoonish right now.

    As far as strike out improvement goes, if you can do so without changing the strengths of your game, go for it. But if you pull an Adam Dunn and change your game while lowing your strikeouts, its not really a good idea. (He swung more both inside and outside the zone, made less contact and had a drastically lower OBP despite a drastically higher average - Fangraphs article from yesterady)

    Again though, most of the criticism of Stubbs and players like him come from what Erardi talks about in the article.... people focusing on what guys can't do instead of what they can.
    When people like to focus on strikeouts, I'd like to compare two guys and subtract out the things they both do -- then see which leftover stuff you'd rather have. People (everyone) struggle to weigh many things at once at the same time. The math of say "60 strikeouts vs. 80 ball-in-play outs and 10 double plays" is not easy to do in one's head. The strikeouts most likely are much less fun to watch and feel worse -- but many people confuse that with actual run production.

    At least with Stubbs, the speed and defense will make him more exciting that Dunn was to watch. That should keep most of the saber-haters off his back.

    I'd love to sit down with some of those commenters and just walk through things one simple step at a time. I've yet to see somebody take a hard close look at sabermetric basics and still dismiss it as ignorant to the "real game".
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 02-05-2011 at 02:57 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Speedy Stubbs is key for 2011

    I think that the whole K debate misses the real issue. Batting with two strikes.

    Stubbs is terrible at it, hence the K's. If he just learned to be a better two strike hitter, meaning be smarter with two strikes and not be at complete mercy of the pitcher, he would be much more productive hitter overall.

    NL Average slash line with two strikes:

    .179/.245/.274

    Stubbs:

    .150/.235/.245

    for comparison:

    Bruce:

    .172/.243/.340

    Phillips:

    .202/.260./.286

    Gomes:

    .152/.233/.280

    Even Gomes is better at two strikes than Stubbs.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  15. #14
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Speedy Stubbs is key for 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    I think that the whole K debate misses the real issue. Batting with two strikes.

    Stubbs is terrible at it, hence the K's. If he just learned to be a better two strike hitter, meaning be smarter with two strikes and not be at complete mercy of the pitcher, he would be much more productive hitter overall.

    NL Average slash line with two strikes:

    .179/.245/.274

    Stubbs:

    .150/.235/.245

    for comparison:

    Bruce:

    .172/.243/.340

    Phillips:

    .202/.260./.286

    Gomes:

    .152/.233/.280

    Even Gomes is better at two strikes than Stubbs.
    EVen looking at the numbers you posted, Stubbs really isn't all that much worse than average with two strikes on him. In 100 plate appearances, he fails to reach base one less time than the "average" player with two strikes on him. That means over a season we are talking about 3 or 4 hits. Is that really what is holding him back, 3 or 4 hits?

  16. #15
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Speedy Stubbs is key for 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    I think that the whole K debate misses the real issue. Batting with two strikes.

    Stubbs is terrible at it, hence the K's. If he just learned to be a better two strike hitter, meaning be smarter with two strikes and not be at complete mercy of the pitcher, he would be much more productive hitter overall.
    This is missing the point. Remember the whole conversation about Dunn learning to hit with two strikes? Learning to just make more contact? By and large, if guys could fix a part of their game without sacrificing something else, they would.

    The point is that even with his troubles with 2 strikes (which every player who struggles with contact will have), he's a very productive player. Focusing disproportionately on his weaknesses, on what he could be if he were different, can make that hard to see.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.


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