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Thread: BP Reds Top 20

  1. #1
    Member New Fever's Avatar
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    BP Reds Top 20

    Five-Star Prospects

    1. Aroldis Chapman, LHP
    Four-Star Prospects
    2. Devin Mesoraco, C
    3. Billy Hamilton, 2B/SS
    4. Yasmani Grandal, C
    Three-Star Prospects
    5. Yorman Rodriguez, OF
    6. Yonder Alonso, 1B
    7. Zack Cozart, SS
    Two-Star Prospects
    8. Juan Francisco, 3B/1B
    9. Kyle Lotzkar, RHP
    10. Ismael Guillon, LHP
    11. Junior Arias, SS

    Nine More:
    12. Donnie Joseph, RHP: A righty reliever who dominated at lower levels, he's limited to a set-up man's ceiling.
    13. Ryan LaMarre, OF: He possesses solid tools across the board, highlighted by plus speed, but he lacks star power.
    14. Brad Boxberger, RHP: Scouts are mixed as to whether he should start or relieve, but either way, he lacks a high ceiling.
    15. Todd Frazier, UT: The former top prospect still doesn't have a defensive home, and the bat has quieted down significantly.
    16. Chris Valaika, INF: If scouts thought he could play on the left side, he'd rank higher.
    17. Didi Gregorious, SS: A shortstop with tools and upside, but he has a long way to go.
    18. Drew Cisco, RHP: Armed with far more polish than stuff, Cisco could move up more quickly than most teenage arms.
    19. Ronald Torreyes, SS: An unrefined teenager, Torreyes has already shown speed and contact ability.
    20. Kyle Waldrop, OF: This over-slot 12th-rounder has plenty of raw power, but will he hit?

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/

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  3. #2
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: BP Reds Top 20

    This is more in line with my thinking than the other lists I've seen. Cozart is ranked higher, reflecting his all around offensive and defensive balance. Francisco is lower reflecting his limitation due to his defense and plate disciplne. Frazier and Valaika are down in the fringe area where the tweeners live.

    BTW, Joseph is a Lefty.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Re: BP Reds Top 20

    Yeah, don't know if that was a typo in the original article or a mistake. I will shoot Goldstein an e-mail later and clarify. Not sure if it would change his thoughts at all if he doesn't have in mind that Joseph is a lefty.

    Good article for those that have premium access to BP. The words on the top 11 are pretty damn glowing.

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    Re: BP Reds Top 20

    I agree that these rankings look pretty in-line with my thinking, although I take issue with the ranking of the Y's: I'd move Yorman and Yonder ahead of Yasmani, at least at this point.

    Interesting that they seem to think Grandal could be a middle-of-the-order bat. I hadn't seen that in many other places, which probably explains the high ranking. They also don't seem to think Hamilton has the arm to stick at SS. As a 2B, he seems like he profiles as a faster Luis Castillo. Thoughts?
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  6. #5
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: BP Reds Top 20

    I'm surprised to see no mention of Sappelt.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  7. #6
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    Re: BP Reds Top 20

    You know Chapman is pretty darn talented when the worst thing Goldstein could say about him is his arm is almost too free and easy at times.

    Anyone else think Devin Mesoraco is going to be a star? The scouting reports on him just continue to get better and better. I'm looking forward to seeing him in Cincinnati.

    The scouting report on Ismael Guillon wowed me. Based on that scouting report, he would probably be a top five prospect in most organizations. He refers to him as a potential star-level starter with above above velocity with the potential to add more and a changeup that projects as plus to plus-plus. If he can improve that breaking ball, watch out.

    Junior Arias sounds very promising as well.

    It's also nice seeing a glowing scouting report of Yorman to go along with his great results. I think he will be the Reds number one prospect at this time next season assuming Mesoraco graduates to the majors.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  8. #7
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: BP Reds Top 20

    I'm sorry, but on no planet should Billy Hamilton be ranked as a better prospect than Yorman Rodriguez. Maybe you rank them equally, but I'd put Yorman ahead of Hamilton based on frame (from what I have seen) and background. Yorman has the higher ceiling.
    Last edited by TRF; 02-08-2011 at 10:44 AM.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  9. #8
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: BP Reds Top 20

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    I'm sorry, but on no planet should Billy Hamilton be ranked as a better prospect than Yorman Rodriguez. Maybe you rank them equally, but I'd put Yorman ahead of Hamilton based on frame (from what I have seen) and background. Yorman has the higher ceiling.
    You're crazy imho.

    First of all, how different are their frames? They're both speedy, scrawny guys, and Rodriguez has only a one- or two-inch advantage on Hamilton. Does that small difference indicate that Rodriguez' ceiling is so much higher?

    Second of all, Hamilton is playing a more-premium position.

    Third of all, Rodriguez has a lot more to learn than Hamilton when it comes to plate approach.

    I can keep going if you'd like . . .

    I don't have a problem with anyone picking Rodriguez over Hamilton, but I think it's crazy to say that the difference is so huge that on 'no planet' would it make sense to prefer Hamilton.

  10. #9
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    Re: BP Reds Top 20

    Yorman Rodriguez is two years younger than Billy Hamilton, so there is that.
    Zero chance the Reds miss the playoffs!

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    Re: BP Reds Top 20

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    You're crazy imho.

    First of all, how different are their frames? They're both speedy, scrawny guys, and Rodriguez has only a one- or two-inch advantage on Hamilton. Does that small difference indicate that Rodriguez' ceiling is so much higher?

    Second of all, Hamilton is playing a more-premium position.

    Third of all, Rodriguez has a lot more to learn than Hamilton when it comes to plate approach.

    I can keep going if you'd like . . .

    I don't have a problem with anyone picking Rodriguez over Hamilton, but I think it's crazy to say that the difference is so huge that on 'no planet' would it make sense to prefer Hamilton.
    Agree with this. I personally would rank Y-Rod a tick above Hamilton because in addition to being younger, I believe he has significantly more offensive firepower (and therefore a higher ceiling). But I don't think it is other-worldly to discuss Hamilton being ranked ahead of Y-Rod. Slick fielding SS will always get a premium to OF, unless the OF is on a completely differently level offensively. In this case, Y-Rod might have a higher ceiling but the two are probably closer than you think in terms of prospect rankings. After all, Hamilton did have a higher OPS (same SLG, higher OBP/better plate discipline) than Y-Rod in Billings this year.*

    *(I know he is two years older)
    Last edited by Benihana; 02-08-2011 at 01:52 PM.
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  12. #11
    Member membengal's Avatar
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    Re: BP Reds Top 20

    Both baseball america and now bp have ranked hamilton above y-rod, trf. Given yorman's skill-set, that says volumes about hamilton's potential. The scouts are trying to find new adjectives for hamilton's speed apparently. Intriguing, at the least.
    Last edited by membengal; 02-08-2011 at 02:10 PM.

  13. #12
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    Re: BP Reds Top 20

    One of the most important things for a hitter is his approach at the plate. Hamilton is significantly more advanced in this aspect, and until Rodriguez shows more improvement, it's far from obvious that Rodriguez is a better prospect.

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    Re: BP Reds Top 20

    The worry to me, and why I like Yorman better, is that many believe Billy will end up at 2nd not SS which diminishes his value a good bit.
    "When all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail"

  15. #14
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    Re: BP Reds Top 20

    Quote Originally Posted by bubbachunk View Post
    The worry to me, and why I like Yorman better, is that many believe Billy will end up at 2nd not SS which diminishes his value a good bit.
    I don't think anyone actually believes Hamilton is destined for 2B. All that speculation came from the fact that the Reds played him at 2B for the sake of giving him versatility. If Hamilton ends up at second base, it'll almost definitely be because there are better options at SS--not due to any inadequacy of his own.

  16. #15
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    Re: BP Reds Top 20

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    I'm sorry, but on no planet should Billy Hamilton be ranked as a better prospect than Yorman Rodriguez. Maybe you rank them equally, but I'd put Yorman ahead of Hamilton based on frame (from what I have seen) and background. Yorman has the higher ceiling.
    Billy will jump to meet you on that planet if you'd like:

    Unofficial Johnny Cueto Cy Young Campaign President For Reds Fans by a Reds Fan
    Johnny Cueto's Next Start:
    AUGUST 20, 7:15 PM ET @ Busch Stadium
    MORTAL COMBAT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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