Turn Off Ads?
Page 3 of 4 FirstFirst 1234 LastLast
Results 31 to 45 of 56

Thread: BP Reds Top 20

  1. #31
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,940

    Re: BP Reds Top 20

    Quote Originally Posted by membengal View Post
    I can see Hamilton is going to be the reverse Stubbs with you, Doug. At least I know what the arguments will be about for the next three years.
    I think you are underestimating how much I like Billy Hamilton. The kid is very likely a Top 100 prospect for me. He just isn't a Top 50 guy for me. I am not sure what you mean with the Stubbs comparison, because it can't be about the power thing since all scouting reports on Stubbs talked about his above average raw power and no scouting report will ever mention that with Hamilton. So what exactly are you trying to say with the comparison between how I feel (oppositely) about the two?

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #32
    Member membengal's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Baltimore
    Posts
    9,093

    Re: BP Reds Top 20

    That this is going to be the new minor league obsession. And wll be beaten to death and beyond all recognition. And reverse Stubbs in the sense that you appear to be postioning yourself to denigrate what Hamilton might be able to do, opposite how you tirelessly pushed Stubbs.

  4. #33
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,940

    Re: BP Reds Top 20

    Quote Originally Posted by membengal View Post
    That this is going to be the new minor league obsession. And wll be beaten to death and beyond all recognition. And reverse Stubbs in the sense that you appear to be postioning yourself to denigrate what Hamilton might be able to do, opposite how you tirelessly pushed Stubbs.
    Nah, Stubbs could hit for power. There was never a doubt in my mind about it. There was very little doubt by scouts who saw him hit too, that one day he would hit for plenty of power.

    Hamilton has a lot to prove still, as does everyone who has yet to make a full season debut.

  5. #34
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,940

    Re: BP Reds Top 20

    The latest Baseball Prospectus podcast has Kevin Goldstein and Jason Parks talking about all kinds of stuff, including some Reds prospects. Parks questions Hamilton in the same way, even bringing up the Dee Gordon comparisons and questions whether or not he is going to be strong enough to actually hit for a good average against advanced pitching.

    Go listen to it for stuff on Yorman Rodriguez, Mesoraco, Grandal, Alonso, Didi Gregorius and maybe a few others (caution, this podcast is over 2.5 hours long and 150 MB to download): http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...rticleid=12909

  6. #35
    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Location
    Chicago, IL
    Posts
    4,689

    Re: BP Reds Top 20

    It seems to me that doug is very much a fan of Hamilton, just wants to throw a little cold water (realism) on those that are maybe getting a bit out of hand with their excitement over Hamilton. I'm excited about him, but I believe Doug has some very solid reasons IMO for us to cool our expectations a bit for BH.

    Great thread though.

  7. #36
    Member membengal's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Baltimore
    Posts
    9,093

    Re: BP Reds Top 20

    Here's my issue...I don't think anyone here is "overly excited" about Hamilton. In our community rankings, we have him lower than the experts. When the first of the expert rankings came out, there was a lot of "huh" statements from most, including me. I guess I don't see the need for extolling someone "throwing cold water" on "excitement" if that's the aim. In fact, it gets tiresome. And it's early in Hamilton's progress for the discussion to already become tiresome.

    Hamilton will have to show he can hit in Dayton. As will Yorman. Yorman has a bit more time built in to do so because he is younger. But what I am already tired of is the banging on Hamilton as inherently somehow flawed because he isn't mashing homeruns. There ARE players who can succeed without a ton of power if they have other skills to make up for the lack of power. One of those kinds of skills would be otherworldly speed. IF Hamilton is one of those types, then I am glad to see if he can keep developing what he does well, rather than spend time bemoaning what he doesn't do well.

    It is what irked me about the Dunn stuff over the years. Dunn had amazing power and a really good eye for walks. Instead of celebrating that, too many people whined excessively about the Ks. Hamilton does not profile as a power guy, but he does other stuff great apparently. If he keeps developing on the same track, with blinding speed and not much power, he will potentially have a career in the majors and be an asset to the Reds. What I am not happy about is the prospect of having to sift through years of threads in here bemoaning a lack of power from Hamilton. And that is already where this is trending.

  8. #37
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    Shelburne Falls, MA
    Posts
    10,259

    Re: BP Reds Top 20

    Getting worked up over prospect rankings is like arguing over weather forecasts. Geez.

    You know it's been a long winter when Redszoners start picking fights over the team's best prospects.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  9. #38
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,940

    Re: BP Reds Top 20

    Quote Originally Posted by membengal View Post
    Hamilton does not profile as a power guy, but he does other stuff great apparently. If he keeps developing on the same track, with blinding speed and not much power, he will potentially have a career in the majors and be an asset to the Reds. What I am not happy about is the prospect of having to sift through years of threads in here bemoaning a lack of power from Hamilton. And that is already where this is trending.
    What does Hamilton do offensively that is great other than steal bases? His walk rate is ok, but its closer to average than it is to good. His strikeout rate isn't really good. It isn't bad, but its not good, and especially not good when we consider that he isn't hitting the ball over the fence.

    It isn't the fact that there is bemoaning a lack of power from Hamilton. The guy might not need it. But the fact is, until he is doing well in AA without power, there are going to be some absolute concerns about whether the game he has is going to translate all that well if he continues to hit for no power because the minors are littered with guys who don't hit for power and are really fast (maybe not as fast as Hamilton, but still, plus runners).

    The point is, it seems that some of the national guys are overlooking some of Hamilton's game because he is incredibly fast. That is really all that is being pointed out in the discussions here. Guys can certainly be good players without power.

  10. #39
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2001
    Location
    Indianapolis, IN
    Posts
    7,206

    Re: BP Reds Top 20

    It seems to me the concern about Hamilton's power is much like the concern about Janish's major league numbers. (Not comparing Hamilton to Janish, he's far ahead in minor league numbers I know.)

    But essentially if you can't provide even a little bit of Home Run fear into a pitcher, it will be more difficult to get walks, even if you have a good eye at the plate, and outside of the true freak hitters like Tony Gwynn and Ichiro, no one is able to get on base enough to have value if they don't hit the ball over the fence.

    So it essentially becomes a vicious cycle, no pop leads to pitchers unafraid to challenge which leads to fewer walks which leads to a not great OBP which when combined with no pop means that the hitter doesn't have as much value on offense.
    The lack of pop becomes even more of a detriment in this case because the last thing a pitcher wants to do is walk a very fast guy who couldn't take him deep.

    Now that said, I believe Janish has proven he can in fact hit with enough power to provide value, and Hamilton may very well develop that power, but he hasn't yet and if he doesn't it will significantly limit what he can do in the future.
    When people say that I donít know what Iím talking about when it comes to sports or writing, I think: Man, you should see me in the rest of my life.
    ---Joe Posnanski

  11. #40
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    Indianapolis
    Posts
    749

    Re: BP Reds Top 20

    What is Hamilton's LD%? Does he drive the ball into the gaps with authority or does he look more like Juan Pierre at the plate?
    Whoever wants to know the heart and mind of America had better learn baseball - Jacques Barzun

  12. #41
    Member 757690's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Dayton
    Posts
    11,500

    Re: BP Reds Top 20

    Quote Originally Posted by mound_patrol View Post
    What is Hamilton's LD%? Does he drive the ball into the gaps with authority or does he look more like Juan Pierre at the plate?
    Just for the record, Juan Pierre has a lifetime .347 OBP and has average 54 SB with at a 75% rate over an 11 year career. Pierre got a bad rap because of a terrible contract the Dodgers signed him to, but he has always been a productive player. I would be very happy if Hamilton has that nice of a career.

    Always safe to use Willy Taveras as an example of a weak hitting speedster
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  13. #42
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,940

    Re: BP Reds Top 20

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Just for the record, Juan Pierre has a lifetime .347 OBP and has average 54 SB with at a 75% rate over an 11 year career. Pierre got a bad rap because of a terrible contract the Dodgers signed him to, but he has always been a productive player. I would be very happy if Hamilton has that nice of a career.

    Always safe to use Willy Taveras as an example of a weak hitting speedster
    Juan Pierre never strikes out too. He strikes out 5.6% of the time he steps to the plate. That is incredibly elite in terms of contact rate. That is why his OBP is where it is. He is fast and always puts the ball in play.

    Billy Hamilton struck out 17.7% of the time he stepped to the plate this year.

    They aren't really players that should be compared for several reasons, but that is the biggest one.

  14. #43
    Member 757690's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Dayton
    Posts
    11,500

    Re: BP Reds Top 20

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Juan Pierre never strikes out too. He strikes out 5.6% of the time he steps to the plate. That is incredibly elite in terms of contact rate. That is why his OBP is where it is. He is fast and always puts the ball in play.

    Billy Hamilton struck out 17.7% of the time he stepped to the plate this year.

    They aren't really players that should be compared for several reasons, but that is the biggest one.
    I'm thinking Elvis Andus is a decent comp for Hamilton. Not much power, very fast, high K rate, but a decent OBP. Probably because he almost never hits a flyball and has a lot of bunt and infield hits. I already read an interview with Hamilton where he said he needed to work on hitting more GB, which is a good sign. If he can do that, he might be able to get by without much power.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  15. #44
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,940

    Re: BP Reds Top 20

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    I'm thinking Elvis Andus is a decent comp for Hamilton. Not much power, very fast, high K rate, but a decent OBP. Probably because he almost never hits a flyball and has a lot of bunt and infield hits. I already read an interview with Hamilton where he said he needed to work on hitting more GB, which is a good sign. If he can do that, he might be able to get by without much power.
    It is certainly an interesting comparison, but its a tough one for me to say ok with right now, simply because Andrus played last season at 21 and it was his second full season in the majors, while Hamilton was 19 and in rookie ball. I would also note that Andrus hit 6 HR's his first season and was a solid player. Last season he didn't hit any and he was pretty poor of a player. It is really tough to be a good player without some sort of HR pop. Not impossible, but its tough.

  16. #45
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Posts
    34,844

    Re: BP Reds Top 20

    I'll just post this in here...from Jamie Ramsey's blog:

    TODAY'S NEWS: Reds farmhand SS Didi Gregorius, 19, received the Australian Baseball League's Gold Glove as its best defensive player this winter...the Amsterdam native previously was named the outstanding defensive player at the IBAF Intercontinental Cup in October, while his throwing arm was rated by Baseball America as the best among all Midwest League infielders.
    http://ramsey.mlblogs.com/archives/2...ook-21110.html
    I miss Adam Dunn.


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25