I can see why some people harshly reacted your thread.''Dusty Baker destroys another arm''isn't actually a way to start an intelligent discourse on Baker.
I can see why some people harshly reacted your thread.''Dusty Baker destroys another arm''isn't actually a way to start an intelligent discourse on Baker.
ROLL TIDE ROLL!!
A lot of people had basically this same reply, but I just have to say I agree. Harang saying his mechanics were off for 2 and a half seasons sounds like a weak excuse. My old man always said, "excuses are for losers."Originally Posted by Quatitos
The story doesn't add up. Sure you can use that for why Harang was bad the rest of that year, even though, in September that year he posted a 3.07 ERA in 6 starts, after he had gotten some rest on the DL. And What about the next 2 years? Was he still too tired to use his previous mechanics? Or maybe last year he was off balance without his appendix
Agreed.
People that rip on Baker for his use of pitchers rarely have anything more intelligent to say than, "Look at Mark Prior and Kerry Wood!"
Last edited by OGB; 02-14-2011 at 07:32 PM.
(Referring to Jack Hannahan signing with a Korean team)
Since there are no teams on the moon, I guess South Korea's far enough from Cincinnati to satisfy me.
-RichRed
Did you even read this hackneyed article from this obviously biased, D-list blogger? I realize you offering it as "proof" only constitutes a portion of your overall post, but I found it so inaccurate and illogical that I feel I must refute it in-depth.
So here goes:
- ’93 – He pitched Bill Swift and John Burkett over 230 innings that year. They both had stellar years, each winning 20+ games, but at what price?
’94 - Swift and Burkett would have horrible years, neither winning more than 8 games and taking a significant drop in every other important statistical category.
Swift was 31 and in his 8th season in 1993. He followed that year going 8-7 with a 3.38 ERA. His career started to unwind at age 33 in Colorado. He pitched 5 seasons after '93.
John Burkett pitched another full decade after 1993. He pitched over 173 innings 7 more times. He won 105 more games.*
- ’95 – Mark Leiter has an average year going 10-12, not great, but he did have 7 complete games that year, trying to shoulder the load that Dusty put on him.
’96 – Hey, what do you know Leiter comes back next year and goes 4-10 and only manages 1 complete game.
Leiter was 32 in 1995. His previous best season was 9-7, 4.21 ERA, with 134.2 IP. 1995 was more the exception than the rule for his career.. Also the following season he was actually 8-12 with 2 CGs and 205 IP between Montreal and SF. (He threw 205 in '95 as well)
- He doesn't even offer any explanation or cogent analysis for what he has to say about Kirk Reuter, Shawn Estes, and Russ Ortiz other than that they started out very well in SF under Baker and then over the years slowly started to decline. Kirk Reuter actually had several outstanding seasons under Dusty.
- ’00 – Livan Hernandez is a rookie, so why not pitch him 240 innings?
’01 – Livan eats up more innings, 226, but at what cost? He goes 13-15 and has a high ERA, 5.24.
’02 – Dusty’s last supper with the Giants. Livan again goes above the 200 mark for innings, 216, but again has a losing record 12-16.
Hernandez has pitched over 233 innings 5 times in his career, only one of those under Baker. Additionally, 8 years later at age 35**, Hernandez posted a 3.66 ERA in 211.2 innings. Also, Livan was in his 5th season in 2000.
- He offers up absolutely nothing about Baker's time in Chicago other than to mention that Wood and Prior got hurt during his tenure. He conveniently ignores the fact that Carlos Zambrano thrived during this time. He also ignores the fact that Wood had pitched 691.2 innings before Dusty got to town, and is still a successful RP today.
(I don't have any kind of link to back this up, so it's probably not worth mentioning, but I've heard that experts have said that because of Prior's delivery/mechanics, he was a severe injury waiting to happen.)
- He has even less substance when it comes to Baker as Red's manager, but there is this gem:
It is not that Arroyo is like Zambrano and is impervious to Dusty’s ruining, it is that Bronson it too concerned with his next JTM commercial to really listen to the bad advice that Dusty is trying to give him.
Well, how can you argue with that logic?
*I don't think wins are an accurate gauge of a SP's success, but the blogger in question seems to, so I deemed that number relevant.
**Assuming anyone actually believes this geezer is only 35 years old.
Last edited by OGB; 02-14-2011 at 07:34 PM.
(Referring to Jack Hannahan signing with a Korean team)
Since there are no teams on the moon, I guess South Korea's far enough from Cincinnati to satisfy me.
-RichRed
No doubt he has his strengths. I'm just puzzled by the tendency by some to downplay, or even be completely dismissive of, his many well-chronicled weaknesses.
FIRE DUSTY Never mind. The man is clearly a genius.
I think most people point to Prior more than Wood, as Wood's mechanics were shaky to start with and Riggleman abused Wood much more than Baker.
Check this article http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/ar...-pitch-counts/. It points out that from 2000-2006 (when the article was written), he let his starter go over 122 pitches 88 times, more than any other manager. 10% of his pitchers' starts go over 120 pitches, which is a very high number.
I should note here, however, that Dusty has actually been very fair in his pitcher usage since he came to Cincinnati. The only time I recall a pitcher being used inappropriately was Homer Bailey at the end of 2009, but that aside, Baker hasn't done anything too crazy, as far as I know.
Anyway, back to the point at hand. Now that it has been established that for the first half of the 2000's Dusty was using his pitchers at a much higher frequency than other managers, check this article http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=1658. This paragraph in particular I find interesting:
"The quantity and character of a pitcher's use--and the fatigue that they induce--have received more attention lately in sabermetric circles. As a pitcher fatigues, his biomechanics begin to break down. While the tipping point of fatigue can be difficult to pinpoint, it can be broadly measured by such approaches as pitch counts, velocity tracking, and even observed exertion. As Keith Woolner and Rany Jazayerli have suggested, the relationship between fatigue and injury risk is exponential rather than linear; an overworked pitcher is significantly more likely to experience a traumatic injury."
If you overwork a pitcher, his mechanics break down and his risk of injury skyrockets. This is why Dusty has the reputation of being a pitcher-killer, it's not simply because of his use of Prior and Wood (though honestly, his use of Prior in 2003 was absolutely ridiculous). As the Hardball Times article pointed out, much of the Dusty talk is hyperbolic, especially today, when he actually seems to be pretty average with pitcher usage. However, I do think that there is enough evidence to say that from 2000-2006 at the least (and likely earlier, though I don't have the data to back that up), Dusty put his pitchers at a higher risk of injury by keeping them out there too long.
Check my later posts, I clarify why I used that article; not for the guy's writing, most certainly, as it's pitiful. I merely wanted to present a few of the numbers in it, such as Hernandez pitching 240 innings (not a rookie, but he was only 25), and to show that Dusty used his pitchers at a high frequency in San Fran. I never should have used the article in the first place, as the terrible writing and other inaccuracies destroy its validity. Later, I posted a different article, one from Hardball Times, which does a much better job of detailing how Dusty stacked up against other managers in pitcher usage. I should have used it in the first place. Again, check out my later posts, they do a much better job of clarifying what I was trying to say in the first place.
By the way, you're absolutely right. Wins are a terrible gauge of a pitcher's success.
Weaknesses, like telling your best hitter to sacrifice bunt in the bottom of the ninth, with two men on, and down by one run?
http://www.firejoemorgan.com/2008/05...part-deux.html
http://www.faniq.com/blog/Adam-Dunn-...kOff-Blog-8938
Maybe the worst managerial decision I have ever seen.
I wouldn't do it there, but really an easy decision to justify. Bunting in that situation is a good decision with the right guy up and the right guy hitting behind him. Win on the road... tie at home.
It's not like he pinch hit Juan Castro for Josh Hamilton in the 9th inning of a close game...
http://www.baseball-reference.com/bo...00706200.shtml
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
I think the "attention in sabermetric circles," is look how smart we are. Not useful analysis. One year to the next stats in 21 year old pitchers are going to fluctuate more than 29 year olds. Why relate 50% innings drop to catastrophic injury? Just study injury. Why don't they just get all the injury data for all starters and compare ones with high pitch counts to the average starter? Conclusions should not be "88 is a lot" and "10% is very high."
Maybe, but with Adam Dunn at the plate? I'd never bunt Dunn.I wouldn't do it there, but really an easy decision to justify. Bunting in that situation is a good decision with the right guy up and the right guy hitting behind him. Win on the road... tie at home.
It's not like he pinch hit Juan Castro for Josh Hamilton in the 9th inning of a close game...
http://www.baseball-reference.com/bo...00706200.shtml
Haha, c'mon man, you just had to try and top my bad managerial decision with a worse one. I had forgotten that one. That's pretty bad.
The conclusion wasn't just that 88 is "a lot" or that 10% was "very high" (my words, not theirs), it was that they were higher than for any other manager in baseball. That Hardball Times article was not attempting to show a correlation between pitcher usage and injury. The article simply wanted to show that Dusty uses his pitchers more than anyone else, though not to the extent that some people think.
But here's an article that shows a relationship between PAP and injury.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=1480
And a graph of all the data.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ne...03_woolner.gif
As for the "look how smart we are" thing, why do you feel that way? All that meant was that sabermetric people have been taking a hard look at some kind of correlation between pitcher usage and injury, with different people taking different sides (if I remember correctly, Bill James and Rob Neyer don't buy into what Woolner and Jazayerli say).
People here don't have as long a memory as I have. I saw Dusty doing it in San Francisco. He came to Chicago already with a reputation as hurting players' arms. I saw Dusty's predecessor, Roger Craig doing it much worse than Dusty Baker has done it. Baker learned from Craig.
That he cemented that reputation in Chicago was more proof than most people needed.
That he's now done it again in Cincinnati to Harang is just further proof.
That he's adjusted concerning Starting Pitchers, thanks to Walt Jockety, I believe, is some proof that he may be less likely to do it again.
That he rode the arms of Cordero and Masset into the ground last season counters that he's learning to adjust thanks to Walt and his wise counsel.
I definitely see a new and improved version of Dusty Baker the last year. I hope this guy remains and that he takes heed with the likes of Wood, Cueto, Bailey, Volquez, Chapman and Leake.
Last edited by Kingspoint; 02-15-2011 at 09:23 PM.
I hope so too. But after that 120+ pitch outing of Bailey early last season, and his subsequent DL trip... I wonder.
Rode Cordero into the ground? Cordero rode himself into the ground. It was a hilarious thing last year seeing how pathetically, stupendously bad Cordero was, and then the excuses made as to WHY that was. Some people would say "this is Dusty's fault for using him too much!" then others would say "he hasn't pitched in several days, this is Dusty's fault!"
And in the end, whether Cordero pitched a lot or was well rested, he still sucked.
BS, that is the moment his career jumped the shark. I never cared for Harang, never thought he was as good as the local press claimed. He was solid but not good, but his career went in the ****ter the day he went in as a reliever
He threw over 100 pitches and it was his 8th straight game pitching 100+ pitches, then with 2 days rest Dusty Faker had him pitch 4 more innings
Faker then put in Volquez on one day rest, when he is free to talk I bet he will say close to the same thing, he had to alter his mechanics due to fatigue and that led to Tommy John.
The damn fool had Arroyo warming up on ZERO days rest when Volquez gave up the winning HR.
He had Cueto on 3 days rest and a day off the next day and he never even warmed him up
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